Retail trade in the Euro Area fell 0.3 percent from a month earlier in May 2019, following a revised 0.1 percent drop in April and missing market expectations of a 0.3 percent growth. Food, drinks, tobacco sales declined 0.5 percent (vs -0.2 percent in April) and automotive trade slumped 1.3 percent (vs -0.2 percent in April). In addition, non-food sales edged 0.1 percent lower, after being unchanged in April, due to lower sales of textiles, clothing, footwear (-0.6 percent vs -2.1 percent). By contrast, increases were seen in sales of mail orders and internet (2.3 percent vs -2.4 percent), pharmaceutical and medical goods (0.3 percent vs 0.8 percent), computer equipment, books and other (0.2 percent vs 0.5 percent), and electrical goods and furniture (0.1 percent vs -0.5 percent). Year-on-year, retail sales rose 1.3 percent in May, missing forecasts of 1.6 percent. Retail Sales MoM in the Euro Area averaged 0.09 percent from 1995 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 2.80 percent in October of 1999 and a record low of -2.10 percent in May of 2011.
Retail Sales MoM in Euro Area is expected to be -0.70 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales MoM in Euro Area to stand at 0.20 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Euro Area Retail Sales MoM is projected to trend around 0.50 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.