Eurozone's retail trade surged 1.3 percent from a month earlier in January 2019, the largest increase since November 2017, following a downwardly revised 1.4 percent drop in December and beating market expectations of 1.2 percent gain. Non-food trade rose 1.7 percent (vs -2.4 percent in December) due to sales of mail orders and internet (2.8 percent vs -4.2 percent), electrical goods and furniture (2 percent vs -2 percent) and pharmaceutical and medical goods (0.7 percent vs -1.1 percent). In addition, sales of food, drinks, tobacco were up 0.6 percent (vs -0.1 percent in December) and those of automotive fuel increased 1.6 percent (vs 0.1 percent in December). On a yearly basis, retail trade growth accelerated to 2.2 percent in January from 0.3 percent in December. Retail Sales MoM in the Euro Area averaged 0.09 percent from 1995 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 2.80 percent in October of 1999 and a record low of -2.10 percent in May of 2011.
Retail Sales MoM in Euro Area is expected to be 0.50 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales MoM in Euro Area to stand at 0.30 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Euro Area Retail Sales MoM is projected to trend around 0.50 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.