Retail trade in the Euro Area was unchanged from a month earlier in September 2018, easing from an upwardly revised 0.3 percent growth in August and missing market expectations of a 0.1 percent gain. An increase in sales of food, drinks, tobacco (0.4 percent vs 0.3 percent in August) and automotive fuel (0.4 percent vs -0.6 percent) was offset by a decline in non-food trade (-0.5 percent vs 0.6 percent). Within the non-food sector, sales of textiles, clothing, footwear recorded the biggest fall (-2.7 percent vs 1.3 percent), followed by computer equipment, books and other (-0.5 percent vs 0.8 percent). On the other hand, there were increases in mail orders and internet trade (2.2 percent vs -2.4 percent) and sales of both electrical goods and furniture (1.5 percent vs 0.3 percent) and pharmaceutical and medical goods (0.3 percent vs 0.2 percent). Retail Sales MoM in the Euro Area averaged 0.09 percent from 1995 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 2.80 percent in October of 1999 and a record low of -2 percent in May of 2011.
Retail Sales MoM in Euro Area is expected to be -0.40 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales MoM in Euro Area to stand at 0.70 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Euro Area Retail Sales MoM is projected to trend around 0.50 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.