Eurozone's retail sales dropped 0.6 percent from a month earlier in July 2019, following an upwardly revised 1.2 percent growth in June and matching market expectations. That was the largest monthly fall in retail trade since December, led by a sharp decline in non-food sales (-1 percent vs 1.1 percent). Within non-food, sales were down for: textiles, clothing, footwear (-3.2 percent vs 4.5 percent); mail orders and internet (-1.5 percent vs 1.3 percent); electrical goods and furniture (-1 percent vs 0.7 percent); and pharmaceutical and medical goods (-1 percent vs -0.3 percent). In addition, food, drinks, tobacco trade dropped 0.3 percent (vs 1.3 percent in June) while fuel sales were flat (vs 1.8 percent in June). Year-on-year, retail trade growth eased to 2.2 percent from 2.8 percent in June, still beating market consensus of 2 percent. Retail Sales MoM in the Euro Area averaged 0.09 percent from 1995 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 2.80 percent in October of 1999 and a record low of -2 percent in May of 2011.
Retail Sales MoM in Euro Area is expected to be -0.70 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales MoM in Euro Area to stand at 0.20 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Euro Area Retail Sales MoM is projected to trend around 0.50 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.