Stock Market - Forecast - 2018/2020

TRADING ECONOMICS expects stock markets to fall further and more rapidly than most investors anticipate on speculation that economic growth will be hurt by an ugly trade war between the United States and China. In addition, geopolitical tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran, Russia and the European union are likely to take center stage in the second part of 2018 hurting investors appetite for risky assets even further. Then, the removal of excessive monetary liquidity from the financial system by central banks will make it more expensive for companies to borrow to buy their own stocks and investors to take loans to leverage their stock portfolios. TRADING ECONOMICS provides forecasts for major stock market indexes and shares based on its analysts expectations and proprietary global macro models. The current forecasts were last revised on July 4 of 2018. Please consider that while TRADING ECONOMICS forecasts are made using our best efforts, they are not investment recommendations.


Major Price Day Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19
Dow Jones 25,041 21.08 -0.08% 23,360 22,572 21,813 21,078
S&P 500 2,791 7.57 -0.27% 2,629 2,547 2,467 2,390
NASDAQ 100 7,283 74.48 -1.01% 6,733 6,462 6,202 5,953
NASDAQ 7,806 0.00 0.00% 7,230 6,968 6,715 6,471
S&P MidCap 400 1,985 10.56 -0.53% 1,897 1,839 1,783 1,729
US 600 1,041 4.71 -0.45% 994 960 927 895
Russell 2000 1,679 8.83 -0.52% 1,605 1,551 1,499 1,448
S&P VIX 12.83 0.33 -0.08% 10.02 6.23 3.87 2.40
US 100 10,309 14.37 0.14% 9,742 9,448 9,164 8,888
NIKKEI 225 22,699 114.02 0.50% 20,905 20,123 19,369 18,646
FTSE 100 7,594 5.73 -0.08% 7,377 7,180 6,989 6,802
FTSE All 4,185 46.89 -1.11% 4,067 3,965 3,866 3,769
DAX 12,532 28.40 -0.23% 11,927 11,528 11,143 10,770
CAC 40 5,390 18.08 -0.33% 5,173 5,027 4,885 4,746
FTSE MIB 21,823 16.78 -0.08% 20,932 20,151 19,399 18,675
IBEX 35 9,684 28.66 -0.29% 9,384 9,069 8,764 8,470
Australian All 6,288 38.30 -0.61% 6,140 6,010 5,882 5,756
ASX 200 6,204 37.90 -0.61% 6,047 5,913 5,783 5,655
ASX 50 6,057 35.60 -0.58% 5,906 5,775 5,647 5,522
CSI 300 3,435 58.60 -1.68% 3,234 3,108 2,986 2,870
SHANGHAI 2,795 19.21 -0.68% 2,664 2,571 2,481 2,394
SHANGHAI 50 2,428 20.57 -0.84% 2,270 2,175 2,083 1,995
SENSEX 36,380 56.36 0.16% 34,656 33,774 32,917 32,081
MICEX 2,315 18.79 -0.81% 2,213 2,125 2,041 1,960
TSX 16,495 66.39 -0.40% 15,951 15,645 15,344 15,050
KOSPI 2,299 11.54 -0.50% 2,196 2,128 2,063 2,000
iBovespa 76,653 58.23 0.08% 70,250 66,993 63,885 60,916
IPC Mexico 48,454 242.09 -0.50% 45,793 44,565 43,370 42,207
AEX 557 1.59 -0.28% 535 520 506 493
SMI 8,848 3.23 0.04% 8,397 8,147 7,905 7,671
FTSE/JSE TOP 40 49,339 1,210.86 -2.40% 49,346 47,581 45,876 44,234
JALSH-All Share 55,442 1,324.43 -2.33% 55,487 53,639 51,854 50,126
STI 3,247 14.66 0.45% 3,156 3,069 2,985 2,903
Hang Seng 28,151 386.53 -1.35% 27,078 25,963 24,892 23,867
PSI Geral 3,283 3.33 0.10% 3,138 3,057 2,978 2,901
NZX 50 8,979 5.73 -0.06% 8,841 8,659 8,482 8,308
Euronext 100 1,063 3.43 -0.32% 1,016 989 963 937
Euro Stoxx 50 3,434 13.71 -0.40% 3,313 3,216 3,123 3,033
NIFTY 50 10,966 28.95 0.26% 10,469 10,199 9,936 9,679

America Price Day Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19
Dow Jones 25,041 21.08 -0.08% 23,360 22,572 21,813 21,078
S&P 500 2,791 7.57 -0.27% 2,629 2,547 2,467 2,390
NASDAQ 100 7,283 74.48 -1.01% 6,733 6,462 6,202 5,953
NASDAQ 7,806 0.00 0.00% 7,230 6,968 6,715 6,471
S&P MidCap 400 1,985 10.56 -0.53% 1,897 1,839 1,783 1,729
US 600 1,041 4.71 -0.45% 994 960 927 895
Russell 2000 1,679 8.83 -0.52% 1,605 1,551 1,499 1,448
S&P VIX 12.83 0.33 -0.08% 10.02 6.23 3.87 2.40
US 100 10,309 14.37 0.14% 9,742 9,448 9,164 8,888
Ecuador General Index 1,326 4.38 0.33% 1,308 1,285 1,262 1,240
TSX 16,495 66.39 -0.40% 15,951 15,645 15,344 15,050
iBovespa 76,653 58.23 0.08% 70,250 66,993 63,885 60,916
IPC Mexico 48,454 242.09 -0.50% 45,793 44,565 43,370 42,207
S&P/BVL Peru General Index TR (PEN) 19,727 21.77 -0.11% 19,159 18,649 18,153 17,671
Merval 26,264 441.26 -1.65% 25,003 23,074 21,297 19,655
IBC 104,397 2,315.93 2.27% 76,575 56,163 41,190 30,206
COLCAP 1,551 4.58 0.30% 1,521 1,482 1,444 1,406
IGPA 26,850 84.62 0.32% 25,730 24,846 23,990 23,164
BVPSI 483 0.59 -0.12% 475 468 462 456
JSE 316,352 861.91 0.27% 297,187 281,864 267,324 253,505
BSX 2,681 1.99 0.07% 2,503 2,362 2,229 2,104

Europe Price Day Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19
FTSE 100 7,594 5.73 -0.08% 7,377 7,180 6,989 6,802
FTSE All 4,185 46.89 -1.11% 4,067 3,965 3,866 3,769
DAX 12,532 28.40 -0.23% 11,927 11,528 11,143 10,770
CAC 40 5,390 18.08 -0.33% 5,173 5,027 4,885 4,746
FTSE MIB 21,823 16.78 -0.08% 20,932 20,151 19,399 18,675
IBEX 35 9,684 28.66 -0.29% 9,384 9,069 8,764 8,470
MICEX 2,315 18.79 -0.81% 2,213 2,125 2,041 1,960
AEX 557 1.59 -0.28% 535 520 506 493
BIST 100 89,744 281.77 -0.31% 92,528 88,209 84,084 80,162
SMI 8,848 3.23 0.04% 8,397 8,147 7,905 7,671
OMXS 30 1,560 6.94 0.45% 1,480 1,432 1,385 1,340
WIG 20 2,138 4.14 0.19% 2,082 1,998 1,918 1,842
WIG 56,206 389.16 -0.69% 54,782 53,033 51,341 49,706
Euronext BEL 20 3,807 1.77 0.05% 3,619 3,525 3,433 3,344
Oslo Bors All-Share 989 9.08 -0.91% 974 946 918 891
ATX 3,291 0.78 0.02% 3,127 3,017 2,911 2,808
OMX Copenhagen 1,000 3.57 0.36% 937 907 877 849
OMX Helsinki 10,081 26.00 0.26% 9,631 9,354 9,085 8,823
OMX Helsinki 25 4,229 19.25 0.46% 4,024 3,901 3,782 3,667
ISEQ 7,057 8.44 0.12% 6,765 6,570 6,382 6,198
Athens General 766 3.80 0.50% 717 685 654 625
PSI Geral 3,283 3.33 0.10% 3,138 3,057 2,978 2,901
PSI 20 5,621 13.14 -0.23% 5,331 5,178 5,029 4,885
PX 1,088 5.40 0.50% 1,050 1,027 1,004 982
BET 8,010 25.60 0.32% 7,769 7,541 7,320 7,104
BUX 35,200 66.87 -0.19% 34,923 33,507 32,153 30,850
PFTS 497 1.40 0.28% 425 397 371 347
SAX 342 0.89 0.26% 315 303 291 279
LuxX 1,632 26.97 -1.63% 1,520 1,457 1,397 1,339
CROBEX 1,803 4.79 -0.27% 1,760 1,724 1,688 1,653
SOFIX 624 3.22 -0.51% 614 600 586 573
SBITOP 889 0.91 -0.10% 855 834 813 793
OMX Vilnius 716 1.76 0.25% 688 668 649 631
BELEX 15 733 3.57 -0.48% 721 707 694 680
CSE General 74 0.81 -1.09% 74 71 69 67
ICEX 1,274 5.76 0.45% 1,283 1,244 1,207 1,171
MSE 4,363 10.79 -0.25% 4,320 4,239 4,160 4,082
MBI 10 3,342 15.39 -0.46% 3,285 3,184 3,085 2,989
Euronext 100 1,063 3.43 -0.32% 1,016 989 963 937
OMX Tallinn 1,260 2.43 0.19% 1,233 1,205 1,177 1,150
OMX Riga 1,023 23.40 -2.24% 995 952 911 872
SASX-10 634 6.48 1.03% 587 567 548 529
Euro Stoxx 50 3,434 13.71 -0.40% 3,313 3,216 3,123 3,033
MONEX INDEX 10,218.36 5.74 0.06% 9,640.74 9,359.73 9,087.65 8,823.52

Asia Price Day Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19
NIKKEI 225 22,699 114.02 0.50% 20,905 20,123 19,369 18,646
SHANGHAI 50 2,428 20.57 -0.84% 2,270 2,175 2,083 1,995
CSI 300 3,435 58.60 -1.68% 3,234 3,108 2,986 2,870
SHANGHAI 2,795 19.21 -0.68% 2,664 2,571 2,481 2,394
SENSEX 36,380 56.36 0.16% 34,656 33,774 32,917 32,081
KOSPI 2,299 11.54 -0.50% 2,196 2,128 2,063 2,000
DSE Broad 5,340 0.00 0.00% 5,167 5,028 4,893 4,762
JCI 5,861 44.40 -0.75% 5,550 5,372 5,200 5,034
TASI 8,491 128.34 1.53% 7,997 7,786 7,579 7,378
TAIEX 10,779 38.46 -0.36% 10,403 10,095 9,794 9,504
ADX General 4,747 60.08 1.28% 4,471 4,355 4,241 4,131
SET 50 1,065 4.01 -0.38% 1,045 1,017 990 964
FKLCI 1,728 1.71 0.10% 1,650 1,612 1,575 1,540
STI 3,247 14.66 0.45% 3,156 3,069 2,985 2,903
TA-100 1,382 0.74 -0.05% 1,336 1,303 1,271 1,239
Hang Seng 28,151 386.53 -1.35% 27,078 25,963 24,892 23,867
PSEi 7,355 14.81 -0.20% 7,072 6,806 6,550 6,304
KSE 100 39,614 51.97 -0.13% 38,635 37,048 35,525 34,066
KASE 2,395 4.69 -0.20% 2,316 2,243 2,172 2,103
QE 9,440 121.44 1.30% 8,820 8,455 8,105 7,770
HNX 104 0.96 0.93% 95 90 85 80
VN 912 1.38 0.15% 868 822 780 739
Kuwait Price 6,633 0.00 0.00% 6,477 6,324 6,175 6,029
SECTMIND 416 0.00 0.00% 406 396 386 377
MSM TOP 30 4,449 7.97 0.18% 4,414 4,308 4,205 4,104
ASPI 6,135 1.35 0.02% 5,964 5,884 5,804 5,726
Blom 1,040 1.87 0.18% 1,020 1,001 982 964
ASE 2,037 0.97 -0.05% 2,026 1,995 1,965 1,935
LSX Composite 899 1.27 -0.14% 850 811 774 738
MSE TOP 20 19,797 77.23 -0.39% 18,153 17,008 15,935 14,929
DFM general 2,919 35.24 1.22% 2,774 2,695 2,618 2,544
All-Share Index 5,238.95 25.53 0.49% 4,975.19 4,891.70 4,809.21 4,728.76
Nikkei Volatility Index 16.39 0.20 1.24% 14.36 10.31 7.41 5.32
NIFTY 50 10,966 28.95 0.26% 10,469 10,199 9,936 9,679
Estirad 1,351.87 9.36 0.70% 1,298.09 1,275.50 1,253.31 1,231.51

Australia Price Day Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19
Australian All 6,288 38.30 -0.61% 6,140 6,010 5,882 5,756
ASX 200 6,204 37.90 -0.61% 6,047 5,913 5,783 5,655
ASX 50 6,057 35.60 -0.58% 5,906 5,775 5,647 5,522
NZX 50 8,979 5.73 -0.06% 8,841 8,659 8,482 8,308

Africa Price Day Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19
NSE-All Share 37,267 125.91 -0.34% 36,140 34,729 33,376 32,074
FTSE/JSE TOP 40 49,339 1,210.86 -2.40% 49,346 47,581 45,876 44,234
JALSH-All Share 55,442 1,324.43 -2.33% 55,487 53,639 51,854 50,126
Egypt EGX 30 15,656 186.57 -1.18% 15,776 15,203 14,652 14,120
Casablanca CFG 25 11,486 0.18 0.00% 11,438 11,201 10,970 10,742
Nairobi 20 3,327 24.61 0.75% 3,194 3,109 3,027 2,946
NSE All Share 171 0.80 -0.47% 164 159 153 148
DSEI 2,288 5.24 -0.23% 1,974 1,718 1,495 1,302
TUN 8,050 5.43 -0.07% 7,934 7,801 7,671 7,543
GGSECI 2,869 0.18 -0.01% 2,798 2,718 2,641 2,566
NSX Overall 1,245 25.39 -2.00% 1,228 1,171 1,117 1,065
Gaborone 8,382 10.97 -0.13% 8,349 8,296 8,244 8,192
SEMDEX 2,224 0.73 0.03% 2,207 2,183 2,159 2,135
Zimbabwe Industrial Index 359.64 2.42 0.68% 313.80 284.56 258.01 234.00

TRADING ECONOMICS forecasts are based on its analysts expectations and proprietary global macro models. We work hard to make sure any information we present is accurate and reliable. However, our forecasts are not recommendations to buy or sell nor we are a registered investment adviser. Moreover, the past performance of our models is not necessarily indicative of future results.