France - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for France including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the France economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.20 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 percent
Unemployment Rate 9.10 8.8 8.6 8.5 8.1 7.2 percent
Inflation Rate 2.30 2.2 2 1.9 2 2.3 percent
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0.75 percent
Balance of Trade -3490.00 -4700 -2980 -3200 -4800 -1650 EUR Million
Government Debt to GDP 97.00 96 96 94.6 94.6 92.5 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 1.17
1.16 1.15 1.15 1.14 1.12
Stock Market 5494.17
points
5433 5382 5333 5283 5089
Government Bond 10Y 0.78
percent
0.75 0.79 0.83 0.87 1.06
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.20
percent
0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.70
percent
1.9 1.9 2 2 2.2
GDP 2582.50
USD Billion
2660 2660 2890 2890 2920
GDP Constant Prices 569518.00
EUR Million
574513 578404 579975 580908 602951
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 130599.00
EUR Million
130606 131902 132211 133211 137500
GDP per capita 42567.74
USD
42900 42900 43200 43200 43600
GDP per capita PPP 38605.67
USD
39200 39200 39700 39700 40400
GDP From Agriculture 7799.00
EUR Million
7934 8000 7965 7955 8340
GDP From Construction 27954.00
EUR Million
28320 28392 28460 28513 29597
GDP From Manufacturing 57866.00
EUR Million
58623 59427 58982 59023 61949
GDP From Services 289588.00
EUR Million
290255 292956 294623 295380 305389
GDP From Transport 22624.00
EUR Million
22693 22982 23238 23076 23957
GDP From Utilities 12611.00
EUR Million
12879 12857 12987 12863 13402
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 9.10
percent
8.8 8.6 8.5 8.1 7.2
Employed Persons 28070.20
Thousand
28200 28200 28450 28550 29100
Unemployed Persons 3462.00
Thousand
3431 3378 3369 3362 3290
Employment Rate 65.80
percent
65.6 65.7 65.7 65.8 66.6
Long Term Unemployment Rate 3.60
percent
3.6 3.4 3.2 3.2 3
Youth Unemployment Rate 20.40
percent
20.5 20 19.5 19 18.3
Labour Costs 108.10
Index Points
108 109 109 109 112
Productivity 118.60
Index Points
120 120 121 122 127
Job Vacancies 304.00
Thousand
322 225 334 342 241
Wages 2998.00
EUR/Month
3052 3370 3078 3440 3520
Wages in Manufacturing 117.90
Index Points
117 118 118 118 123
Minimum Wages 1498.47
EUR/Month
1498 1498 1525 1525 1550
Wage Growth 0.70
percent
0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6
Population 67.19
Million
67.19 67.19 67.55 67.55 68.06
Retirement Age Women 62.00
62 62 62 62 62
Retirement Age Men 62.00
62 62 62 62 62
Initial Jobless Claims 19.30
Thousand
-48.8 -2.6 17.9 -7.6 -6
Labor Force Participation Rate 72.20
percent
72.5 72.4 72.6 72.5 72.8
Manufacturing Payrolls 2778.20
Thousand
2795 2820 2850 2870 2950
Living Wage Family 1700.00
EUR/Month
1780 1780 1840 1840 1890
Living Wage Individual 1030.00
EUR/Month
1120 1120 1190 1190 1250
Non Farm Payrolls 25179.80
Thousand
0 25220 25280 25340 25640
Nonfarm Payrolls Private 19399.70
Thousand
19440 19480 19530 19580 19790
Part Time Employment 4838.00
Thousand
4870 4870 4880 4880 4930
Employment Change 0.10
percent
0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5
Government Payrolls 5780.20
Thousand
5720 5740 5750 5750 5850
Full Time Employment 21682.40
Thousand
22300 22400 22500 22600 22900
Wages Low Skilled 1630.00
EUR/Month
1690 1690 1750 1750 1830
Wages High Skilled 3160.00
EUR/Month
3240 3240 3270 3270 3360
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 2.30
percent
2.2 2 1.9 2 2.3
Inflation Rate Mom 0.50
percent
-0.2 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.4
Consumer Price Index CPI 103.78
Index Points
104 104 105 105 109
Harmonised Consumer Prices 104.38
Index Points
104 104 105 106 109
Core Consumer Prices 102.08
Index Points
102 103 104 104 107
Core Inflation Rate 0.90
percent
1.2 1.5 1.7 1.8 2.2
Producer Prices 102.80
Index Points
104 106 108 105 118
Producer Prices Change 3.90
percent
2.7 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.3
Export Prices 116.20
Index Points
115 116 116 117 120
Import Prices 102.20
Index Points
101 101 103 104 107
Food Inflation 2.20
percent
1.9 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.5
CPI Housing Utilities 103.84
Index Points
103 104 105 105 109
CPI Transportation 109.33
Index Points
104 105 106 103 110
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 0.00
percent
0 0 0 0 0.75
Interbank Rate -0.32
percent
-0.32 -0.32 -0.32 -0.32 0.43
Money Supply M1 1280087.00
EUR Million
1290000 1320000 1360000 1390000 1590000
Money Supply M2 2135779.00
EUR Million
2110000 2150000 2190000 2220000 2320000
Money Supply M3 2534062.00
EUR Million
2550000 2590000 2620000 2660000 2850000
Banks Balance Sheet 8973717.00
EUR Million
9150000 9250000 9450000 9550000 9780000
Foreign Exchange Reserves 147.26
EUR Billion
147 168 148 148 175
Loans to Private Sector 2435502.00
EUR Million
2460000 2490000 2540000 2580000 2860000
Loan Growth 5.82
percent
4.5 4 4 3.6 3.2
Private Debt to GDP 233.97
percent
225 225 221 221 217
Central Bank Balance Sheet 1061447.00
EUR Million
1190000 1250000 1320000 1370000 1750000
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -3490.00
EUR Million
-4700 -2980 -3200 -4800 -1650
Exports 41348.00
EUR Million
41500 42920 41600 40600 47850
Imports 44838.00
EUR Million
46200 45900 44800 45400 49500
Current Account 542.00
EUR Million
-1900 -620 -2200 -2100 -550
External Debt 5006398.00
EUR Million
5050000 5070000 5110000 5150000 5250000
Current Account to GDP -0.80
percent
-1.3 -1.3 -1 -1 -0.9
Terms of Trade 113.70
Index Points
114 115 113 112 112
Foreign Direct Investment 3085.00
EUR Million
3200 3240 4950 1500 4330
Capital Flows -2023.00
EUR Million
-1720 29100 -18700 2500 15100
Remittances 43.00
EUR Million
43 43 45 45 45
Gold Reserves 2436.00
Tonnes
2436 2436 2436 2436 2436
Terrorism Index 5.96
5.96 5.96 5.96 5.96 5.96
Tourism Revenues 7838.00
EUR Million
4510 2540 2620 4950 2750
Tourist Arrivals 82600.00
Thousand
81600 85200 85700 85700 86200
Crude Oil Production 15.00
BBL/D/1K
15 15 15 15 15
Weapons Sales 2162.00
USD Million
1874 1826 1762 1699 1528
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 97.00
percent
96 96 94.6 94.6 92.5
Government Budget -2.60
percent of GDP
-2.2 -2.2 -2 -2 -1.7
Government Budget Value -82.76
EUR Billion
-74 -67 -27 -58 -62
Government Spending 135762.00
EUR Million
137553 137859 138149 138477 143710
Government Spending to GDP 56.50
percent
56.2 56.2 55.7 55.7 55.4
Government Revenues 182.11
EUR Billion
242 316 85 170 327
Government Debt 2255.30
EUR Billion
2320 2340 2380 2400 2470
Fiscal Expenditure 239.12
EUR Billion
316 383 112 228 389
Military Expenditure 56287.40
USD Million
56484 56154 56064 55974 55650
Asylum Applications 8620.00
persons
6420 8400 7150 5900 5100
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence 110.00
Index Points
110 111 110 110 108
Manufacturing PMI 52.50
52.5 55.1 54.6 54 52.8
Services PMI 54.30
Index Points
54.3 57 56.4 56 54
Composite Pmi 53.60
Index Points
53.6 56.8 56.5 56 53.1
Industrial Production 1.80
percent
1.7 2 2.5 2.9 2.3
Industrial Production Mom 0.70
percent
0.1 0.4 0.5 -0.2 0.4
Manufacturing Production 1.90
percent
1.9 2 2.4 2.5 2.2
Capacity Utilization 85.00
percent
86.4 86.5 86.7 86.7 87
New Orders -3.50
Index Points
-4 -2 -6 -4 -10
Bankruptcies 304.00
Companies
298 320 312 310 340
Zew Economic Sentiment Index -1.60
17.9 21 24.4 30.6 22
Car Registrations 248642.00
185200 189900 192000 186500 199400
Internet Speed 10756.57
KBps
11992 12327 12582 12797 15144
IP Addresses 29887339.00
IP
30276966 29957609 30243248 30229624 29536871
Mining Production 1.70
percent
4.4 3.2 3 2.7 2.2
Steel Production 1310.00
Thousand Tonnes
1390 1250 1450 1500 1380
Changes In Inventories 4471.00
EUR Million
9500 8200 6900 6000 4500
Competitiveness Index 5.18
Points
5.18 5.18 5.25 5.25 5.29
Competitiveness Rank 22.00
22 22 21 21 20
Ease of Doing Business 31.00
30 30 29 29 28
Electricity Production 43337.00
Gigawatt-hour
41200 55900 52700 41500 56800
Corruption Index 70.00
Points
71 71 72 72 73
Corruption Rank 23.00
22 22 21 21 20
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 97.00
Index Points
98 100 101 102 103
Retail Sales MoM 0.40
percent
0.8 -0.7 0.5 -0.3 0.4
Retail Sales YoY 2.70
percent
4.8 4.4 4.6 4.2 2.7
Consumer Spending 307426.00
EUR Million
312010 312719 313764 313575 325991
Disposable Personal Income 355091.00
EUR Million
361000 364000 366000 368000 389000
Personal Savings 14.32
percent
14.5 14.5 14.7 14.7 15.1
Households Debt To Gdp 58.70
percent of GDP
58 58 56 56 52
Households Debt To Income 89.47
percent
85.8 85.8 84.6 84.6 83.5
Personal Spending 0.10
percent
0.9 0.5 -0.4 -0.3 0.6
Bank Lending Rate 1.82
percent
1.82 1.82 1.82 1.82 2.57
Consumer Credit 1368170.00
EUR Million
1410000 1450000 1490000 1520000 1780000
Gasoline Prices 1.86
USD/Liter
1.9 1.79 1.69 1.6 1.26
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Construction Output -0.10
percent
2.2 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.1
Housing Index 105.89
Index points
109 109 111 112 119
Housing Starts 32000.00
units
37100 45200 39100 37100 50300
Home Ownership Rate 64.90
percent
63.4 63.4 63.2 63.2 63
New Home Sales 34096.00
31800 36100 32900 34800 40200
Construction Pmi 48.60
54.5 55.1 55.5 55.1 54
Building Permits 40400.00
49400 47200 47500 46400 55100
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 33.30
percent
33.3 33.3 33.3 33.3 33.3
Personal Income Tax Rate 45.00
percent
45 45 45 44 45
Sales Tax Rate 20.00
percent
20 20 20 20 20
Social Security Rate 59.20
percent
59.2 59.2 59.2 59.2 59.2
Social Security Rate For Companies 45.00
percent
45 45 45 44.02 45
Social Security Rate For Employees 14.20
percent
14.2 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.2
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Precipitation 24.37
mm
65.82 79.96 63.32 69.98 71.06
Temperature 7.70
celsius
18.61 9.92 7.71 16.15 13.08