The Ifo Business Climate Index in Germany fell by 1.8 points from a month earlier to 95.7 in July 2019, the lowest level since April 2013 and below market expectations of 97.1. The business expectations sub-index slumped to 92.2 from 94.0 in June; while the gauge of current conditions dropped to 99.4 from 101.1 in the previous month. Across sectors, confidence deteriorated among manufacturers (-4.3 vs 1.3 in June), service providers (17.7 vs 20.3), wholesalers (-0.3 vs 6.8), and retailers (4.7 vs 8.9), while sentiment among constructors improved slightly (23.3 vs 23.0). Business Confidence in Germany averaged 98.13 Index Points from 1991 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 109.80 Index Points in January of 1991 and a record low of 79.90 Index Points in March of 2009.
Business Confidence in Germany is expected to be 94.40 Index Points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Business Confidence in Germany to stand at 102.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Germany Ifo Business Climate Index is projected to trend around 102.00 Index Points in 2020, according to our econometric models.