The GfK consumer confidence index dropped to 10.4 heading into December 2018 from 10.6 in the previous month and slightly below market expectations of 10.5. It is the lowest reading since June 2017 amid persistent concerns over the US trade conflict with China and the EU, as well as Brexit negotiations. The gauge measuring economic expectations declined for the second month in a row to 17.4, and the income expectations sub-index fell 4.2 points to 50.2, hitting the lowest level this year. Meanwhile, the propensity to buy rose for the second straight time to 57.5 points, prompted by a general feeling of job security. Consumer Confidence in Germany averaged 6.17 Index Points from 2001 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 16.80 Index Points in March of 2001 and a record low of -3.50 Index Points in March of 2003.
Consumer Confidence in Germany is expected to be 10.40 Index Points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Consumer Confidence in Germany to stand at 9.60 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Germany GfK Consumer Climate is projected to trend around 9.00 Index Points in 2020, according to our econometric models.