The GfK consumer sentiment indicator for Germany dropped to 9.8 heading into July 2019 from 10.1 in June, below market estimates of 10. It was the weakest reading since April 2017, as the gauge measuring income expectations fell sharply to its lowest in over two years amid fears concerning job losses, namely in the automotive industry. The income expectations sub-index tumbled 12.2 points to 45.5, the lowest since March 2017 when it stood at 41.6. Conversely, the economic expectations sub-index edged up 0.7 points to 2.4, stabilizing at a relatively low level on the back of government's decision to revise lower its 2019 GDP growth forecast to 0.5 percent, due to global economic cooling off, on-going discussions around Brexit, and the trade war with the US. Also, the gauge measuring consumers' willingness to buy gained 3.2 points to 53.7. Consumer Confidence in Germany averaged 6.31 Index Points from 2001 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 16.80 Index Points in March of 2001 and a record low of -3.50 Index Points in March of 2003.
Consumer Confidence in Germany is expected to be 10.50 Index Points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Consumer Confidence in Germany to stand at 9.40 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Germany GfK Consumer Climate is projected to trend around 8.50 Index Points in 2020, according to our econometric models.