The GfK consumer sentiment indicator for Germany edged down to 9.6 heading into January 2020, missing market expectations of 9.8 and matching the November reading which was the lowest since November 2016. The gauge measuring economic expectations dropped 6.1 points to -4.4, far below the long term average of 0, as Germans were less optimistic about the growth outlook. Also, the indicator measuring income expectations fell 10.5 points to 35.0, the lowest since October 2013, amid fears of more job cuts in some industrial sectors, mainly in the car industry and its suppliers. Meanwhile, the willingness to buy went up 2.2 points to 52.2.

Consumer Confidence in Germany averaged 6.39 points from 2001 until 2020, reaching an all time high of 16.80 points in March of 2001 and a record low of -3.50 points in March of 2003. This page provides the latest reported value for - Germany Consumer Confidence - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. source: GfK Group

Consumer Confidence in Germany is expected to be 9.70 points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Consumer Confidence in Germany to stand at 9.20 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Germany GfK Consumer Climate is projected to trend around 8.50 points in 2020, according to our econometric models.


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Germany GfK Consumer Climate

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
9.60 9.70 16.80 -3.50 2001 - 2020 points Monthly
SA

Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2019-09-26 06:00 AM Oct 9.9 9.7 9.7 9.8
2019-10-25 06:00 AM Nov 9.6 9.8 9.8 9.9
2019-11-26 07:00 AM Dec 9.7 9.6 9.6 9.7
2019-12-20 07:00 AM Jan 9.6 9.7 9.8 9.7
2020-01-29 07:00 AM Feb 9.6 9.6 9.7


News Stream
2019-11-26
German Consumer Morale Beats Estimates
The GfK consumer sentiment indicator for Germany unexpectedly was at 9.7 heading into December of 2019, compared with market consensus and the previous month's three-year low of 9.6. Both economic and income expectations increased markedly, while the propensity to buy remained at a high level. The gauge measuring economic expectations jumped 15.5 points to 1.7, slightly above its long term average of zero, as Germans were more optimistic about the growth outlook due to tentative signs of easing in the trade row between the US and China. Also, the indicator measuring income expectations sub-index gained 6.5 points to 45.5, amid robust labor market, rising wages and moderate inflation. Meanwhile, the willingness to buy fell 1.7 points but remained at a high level of 50.

2019-10-25
German Consumer Morale Falls to 3-Year Low
The GfK consumer sentiment indicator for Germany dropped to 9.6 heading into November 2019 from a downwardly revised 9.8 in the previous month and missing market consensus of 9.8. This was the lowest reading since November 2016, amid concerns over global economic downturn, trade conflicts, Brexit chaos and rising fears of job losses, particularly in the automotive industry. The gauge measuring income expectations sub-index slumped 7.8 points to the lowest in near six years of 39.0 and the economic expectations declined 4.8 points to the lowest since December 2012 of -13.8. In addition, the indicator measuring consumer's willingness to buy fell 3.4 points to 51.7. “Optimism is dwindling,” GfK researcher Rolf Buerkl said in a statement. “Nevertheless, private consumption will remain an important pillar for the economy.”

2019-09-26
German Consumer Morale Hits 4-Month High
The GfK consumer sentiment indicator for Germany rose unexpectedly to 9.9 heading into October 2019, beating market consensus of 9.7. This was the highest reading since June, following the ECB's latest decision to further relax its monetary policy while concerns about the ongoing trade conflict and the prospect of a no-deal Brexit continued to weigh. The gauge measuring economic expectations increased by 3 points to -9, and the indicator measuring consumer's willingness to buy climbed 6.3 points to 55.1. Meanwhile, the income expectations sub-index fell 3.3 points to 46.8. "The ECB decision has on one hand resulted in an increase in propensity to buy, and on the other resulted in propensity to save reaching its lowest level since April 2016," Rolf Buerkl, a researcher for Nuremberg-based GfK, said in a statement. "It will become clear in the coming months whether this is sustainable," he said, adding that positive consumer sentiment will depend on the stability of the labour market.

2019-08-28
German Consumer Morale Steady at Near 2-Year Low
The GfK consumer sentiment indicator for Germany stood at 9.7 heading into September 2019, unchanged from the previous month's two-year low and compared to market expectations of 9.6. The gauge measuring economic expectations fell to -12, the lowest level since January 2013, amid concerns over global economic downturn, ongoing trade tensions and the prospect of a no-deal Brexit. Also, the income expectations sub-index slipped 0.7 points to 50.1, while the indicator measuring consumer's willingness to buy rose 2.5 points to 48.8.

2019-07-30
German Consumer Morale at Over 2-Year Low
The GfK consumer sentiment indicator for Germany slipped to 9.7 heading into August 2019 from 9.8 in July and in line with market expectations. This was the weakest reading since April 2017, as the gauge measuring economic expectations fell to -3.7, the lowest level since November 2015, with concerns over global economic downturn, ongoing trade conflicts and Brexit uncertainty fueling workers fears of a recession. Also, the indicator measuring consumer's willingness to buy dropped to a near four-year low of 46.3 from 53.7 in July; while the income expectations sub-index rose to 50.8 from 45.5, suggesting consumers still count on further pay increases in coming months.

2019-06-26
German Consumer Morale Falls More than Expected
The GfK consumer sentiment indicator for Germany dropped to 9.8 heading into July 2019 from 10.1 in June, below market estimates of 10. It was the weakest reading since April 2017, as the gauge measuring income expectations fell sharply to its lowest in over two years amid fears concerning job losses, namely in the automotive industry. The income expectations sub-index tumbled 12.2 points to 45.5, the lowest since March 2017 when it stood at 41.6. Conversely, the economic expectations sub-index edged up 0.7 points to 2.4, stabilizing at a relatively low level on the back of government's decision to revise lower its 2019 GDP growth forecast to 0.5 percent, due to global economic cooling off, on-going discussions around Brexit, and the trade war with the US. Also, the gauge measuring consumers' willingness to buy gained 3.2 points to 53.7.


Germany GfK Consumer Climate
The GfK Consumer Climate Indicator is based on a survey of 2000 individuals age 14 and above. The questionnaire focuses on income expectations, buying propensity and savings. The components of the indicator are calculated as the difference between positive and negative answers to the questions asked. Their value can vary between minus 100 and plus 100 points with 0 representing the long term average.

Germany Consumer Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Consumer Confidence 9.60 9.70 16.80 -3.50 points [+]
Retail Sales MoM 2.10 -1.30 4.60 -6.10 percent [+]
Retail Sales YoY 2.80 1.40 9.70 -7.90 percent [+]
Consumer Spending 428.01 426.17 428.01 311.47 EUR Billion [+]
Disposable Personal Income 506.31 501.52 506.31 22.96 EUR Billion [+]
Personal Savings 10.90 10.70 17.30 7.80 percent [+]
Consumer Credit 237464.00 235851.00 423705.00 21369.00 EUR Million [+]
Private Sector Credit 3104068.00 3086644.00 3104068.00 6461.00 EUR Million [+]
Bank Lending Rate 2.04 1.93 6.55 1.93 percent [+]
Households Debt To GDP 54.00 53.60 71.20 34.80 percent of GDP [+]
Households Debt To Income 83.73 82.51 106.63 82.51 percent [+]
Gasoline Prices 1.60 1.56 2.14 0.91 USD/Liter [+]
Consumer Confidence Economic Expectations 41.30 34.80 69.50 -33.20 [+]
Consumer Confidence Financial Expectations 60.20 58.50 60.20 -26.70 [+]
Consumer Confidence Major Purchases Expectations 58.50 59.20 64.40 -55.40 [+]