Germany - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Germany including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Germany economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.50 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 percent
Unemployment Rate 3.40 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.6 4 percent
Inflation Rate 2.00 1.9 2 2.3 2.4 2.4 percent
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0.75 percent
Balance of Trade 16461.00 21800 17400 24000 23600 11400 EUR Million
Government Debt to GDP 64.10 62.4 62.4 60.5 60.5 60.1 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 1.17
1.16 1.15 1.15 1.14 1.12
Stock Market 12430.88
points
12378 12238 12100 11964 11433
Government Bond 10Y 0.46
percent
0.41 0.45 0.49 0.53 0.75
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.50
percent
0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.00
percent
2.4 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.4
GDP 3677.44
USD Billion
4020 4020 4140 4140 4370
GDP Constant Prices 746.09
EUR Billion
745 757 761 765 793
Gross National Product 865.14
EUR Billion
850 865 877 887 906
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 152.55
EUR Billion
151 153 156 156 160
GDP per capita 46747.19
USD
47400 47400 48500 48500 49500
GDP per capita PPP 45229.25
USD
46000 46000 46700 46700 47400
GDP From Agriculture 5.50
EUR Billion
6.85 5.91 5.51 5.63 6.2
GDP From Construction 39.81
EUR Billion
39.02 41.35 32.66 40.8 43.31
GDP From Manufacturing 182.00
EUR Billion
177 176 180 187 185
GDP From Public Administration 134.10
EUR Billion
134 143 141 137 149
GDP From Services 126.55
EUR Billion
124 125 119 130 131
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.40
percent
3.4 3.4 3.5 3.6 4
Employed Persons 44750.00
Thousand
44790 44800 44850 44900 45900
Unemployed Persons 2350.88
Thousand
2430 2490 2520 2550 2710
Unemployment Change -8.00
Thousand
-10 7 11 15 15
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.50
percent
1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.3
Youth Unemployment Rate 6.10
percent
6 6 6.1 6.2 6.9
Labour Costs 113.18
Index Points
113 114 114 115 120
Productivity 102.60
Index Points
104 104 105 105 109
Job Vacancies 698.53
Thousand
687 670 691 685 640
Wages 3875.00
EUR/Month
3920 3940 3980 4000 4110
Wages in Manufacturing 166.70
Index Points
114 114 115 115 120
Wage Growth 0.50
percent
1.2 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.8
Minimum Wages 8.84
EUR/Hour
8.84 8.84 9.5 9.5 9.5
Population 82.85
Million
82.85 82.85 83.14 83.14 83.45
Retirement Age Women 65.58
65.58 65.58 65.67 65.67 65.75
Retirement Age Men 65.58
65.58 65.58 65.67 65.67 65.75
Labor Force Participation Rate 61.00
percent
62 62 62.4 62.6 64
Living Wage Family 1990.00
EUR/Month
2000 2000 2150 2150 2200
Living Wage Individual 1240.00
EUR/Month
1300 1300 1360 1360 1450
Part Time Employment 10845.70
Thousand
11400 11800 12000 12100 13500
Wages Low Skilled 2050.00
EUR/Month
2140 2140 2200 2200 2280
Wages High Skilled 3550.00
EUR/Month
3650 3650 3700 3700 3750
Employment Change 0.20
percent
0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3
Employment Rate 75.40
percent
75.6 75.9 76 75.9 75.4
Full Time Employment 29620.60
Thousand
30500 31200 31400 31500 32500
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 2.00
percent
1.9 2 2.3 2.4 2.4
Inflation Rate Mom 0.10
percent
0.1 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.6
Consumer Price Index CPI 111.70
Index Points
112 113 113 114 118
Harmonised Consumer Prices 104.30
Index Points
104 105 106 106 111
Core Consumer Prices 111.00
Index Points
111 112 112 112 116
Core Inflation Rate 1.28
percent
1.4 1.5 1.5 1.7 2.1
Producer Prices 107.80
Index Points
108 108 109 110 113
Producer Prices Change 3.00
percent
2.5 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.3
Export Prices 107.70
Index Points
107 107 108 108 111
Import Prices 104.80
Index Points
105 106 106 107 111
Food Inflation 2.40
percent
2.5 2 2.1 2.2 2.5
CPI Housing Utilities 111.90
Index Points
112 113 113 114 118
CPI Transportation 112.00
Index Points
110 111 111 114 116
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 0.00
percent
0 0 0 0 0.75
Interbank Rate -0.32
percent
-0.32 -0.32 -0.32 -0.32 0.43
Money Supply M1 2116.50
EUR Billion
2190 2200 2220 2260 2400
Money Supply M2 2960.10
EUR Billion
3000 3130 3200 3240 3540
Money Supply M3 2992.50
EUR Billion
3420 3500 3620 3740 4510
Foreign Exchange Reserves 162346.00
EUR Million
166000 171000 173000 175000 185000
Banks Balance Sheet 7830.48
EUR Billion
8250 8550 8910 9100 10200
Loans to Private Sector 1445.47
EUR Billion
1460 1480 1510 1520 1700
Private Debt to GDP 147.70
percent
142 142 138 138 132
Central Bank Balance Sheet 1768.20
EUR Billion
1780 1950 2220 2520 4680
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade 16461.00
EUR Million
21800 17400 24000 23600 11400
Exports 111005.00
EUR Million
106700 94300 107700 106100 91300
Imports 94544.00
EUR Million
84900 76900 83700 82500 79900
Current Account 15300.00
EUR Million
21700 17400 30600 20800 15400
External Debt 4648614.00
EUR Million
4860000 4910000 4980000 5060000 5510000
Current Account to GDP 8.00
percent
6.2 6.2 5.7 5.7 5.2
Capital Flows 5878.95
EUR Million
20700 18800 30600 19400 14800
Foreign Direct Investment 2480.00
EUR Million
8500 2500 15100 11100 2130
Gold Reserves 3371.00
Tonnes
3400 3400 3400 3400 3400
Terms Of Trade 102.77
Index Points
102 101 102 101 100
Terrorism Index 4.92
4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92
Tourist Arrivals 37452.00
Thousand
38800 38800 40000 40000 42100
Weapons Sales 1653.00
USD Million
1951 1874 1840 1805 1808
Crude Oil Production 43.00
BBL/D/1K
44 44 44 44 44
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 64.10
percent
62.4 62.4 60.5 60.5 60.1
Government Budget 1.30
percent of GDP
0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 1
Government Budget Value 10.72
EUR Billion
-10 13 -2 31 9
Government Spending 141.98
EUR Billion
143 145 145 146 152
Government Spending to GDP 43.90
percent
43.8 43.8 43.6 43.6 43.2
Government Revenues 350.39
EUR Billion
332 365 325 348 381
Government Debt 1771735.10
EUR Million
1910000 1920000 1940000 1950000 2070000
Fiscal Expenditure 339.67
EUR Billion
342 352 327 317 372
Military Expenditure 43023.00
USD Million
44151 44539 44893 45247 48137
Asylum Applications 13190.00
17420 4300 10900 17500 1900
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence 103.80
Index Points
104 103 103 104 100
Services PMI 56.50
Index Points
56.5 54.9 54.6 55.1 53.3
Manufacturing PMI 53.70
53.7 56.3 55.9 56.4 54.9
Composite Pmi 55.30
Index Points
55.3 55.9 55.5 55.9 53.1
Industrial Production 1.10
percent
3 2.5 2.9 3.2 2.2
Industrial Production Mom -1.10
percent
-0.7 0.9 -0.3 0.5 0.6
Manufacturing Production 0.60
percent
2.8 2.6 3 2.8 2.4
Capacity Utilization 87.70
percent
86.8 86.8 86.7 86.6 86.2
New Orders 104.60
Index Points
105 105 106 107 111
Factory Orders -0.90
percent
-1.7 0.6 -0.6 0.9 0.6
Changes in Inventories 3.19
EUR Billion
0.87 -5.66 -0.25 -0.55 -1.02
Bankruptcies 1603.00
Companies
1800 1830 1890 1850 1750
Corporate Profits 201.20
EUR Billion
205 211 214 216 235
Zew Economic Sentiment Index -10.60
-10.4 5.1 10.5 18.8 25
Car Production 369841.00
Units
545000 375000 572000 528000 393000
Car Registrations 316405.00
308000 269000 368000 332000 287000
Internet Speed 15298.72
KBps
16496 16819 17001 17090 18203
IP Addresses 38794861.00
IP
42402709 43368195 43415303 44341927 48098428
Mining Production -6.10
percent
1.7 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.9
Steel Production 3900.00
Thousand Tonnes
3280 3010 3900 3770 3050
Competitiveness Index 5.65
Points
5.65 5.65 5.76 5.76 5.87
Competitiveness Rank 5.00
5 5 4 4 3
Corruption Index 81.00
Points
82 82 83 83 84
Corruption Rank 12.00
11 11 10 10 9
Ease of Doing Business 20.00
19 19 18 18 17
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 10.50
Index Points
10.5 10.1 9.8 9.7 9
Retail Sales MoM -0.40
percent
0.1 0.9 -0.4 -0.2 0.2
Retail Sales YoY 0.80
percent
2.1 2.6 2.5 2.4 1.8
Consumer Spending 403.88
EUR Billion
405 410 413 414 429
Disposable Personal Income 494.41
EUR Billion
496 498 500 502 515
Personal Savings 10.20
percent
10.5 10.5 10.4 10.4 11
Consumer Credit 238144.00
EUR Million
257000 265000 271000 274000 295000
Private Sector Credit 2917929.00
EUR Million
2910000 2920000 2930000 2940000 3120000
Bank Lending Rate 2.09
percent
2.09 2.09 2.09 2.09 2.84
Gasoline Prices 1.76
USD/Liter
1.79 1.69 1.6 1.51 1.19
Households Debt To Gdp 52.90
percent of GDP
51.2 51.2 50.4 50.4 49.5
Households Debt To Income 82.68
percent
79.5 79.5 77.4 77.4 75
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Construction Output 4.00
percent
2.5 4.2 3.6 3.2 1.9
Housing Index 149.63
Index Points
155 159 162 165 175
Building Permits 30737.00
34050 41700 36500 40500 49700
Construction Pmi 51.50
55.9 54.4 54 54.1 52
Construction Orders 0.90
percent
2.4 3.2 3 2.8 2.7
Home Ownership Rate 51.70
percent
51.4 51.4 51.2 51.2 51
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 29.79
percent
29.79 29.79 29.79 29.79 29.79
Personal Income Tax Rate 47.50
percent
47.5 47.5 47.5 47.5 47.5
Sales Tax Rate 19.00
percent
19 19 19 19 19
Social Security Rate 40.21
percent
40.21 40.21 40.21 40.21 40.21
Social Security Rate For Companies 19.43
percent
19.43 19.43 19.43 19.43 19.43
Social Security Rate For Employees 20.78
percent
20.78 20.78 20.78 20.78 20.78
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Temperature 6.65
celsius
16.05 4.06 0.73 10.73 8.37
Precipitation 33.58
mm
72.5 55.43 46.33 60.34 60.29