This page has economic forecasts for Germany including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Germany economy.


Overview Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate -0.20 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 percent
Unemployment Rate 3.40 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 4 percent
Inflation Rate 2.50 2.2 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.4 percent
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0.25 0.75 percent
Balance of Trade 18395.00 17400 24000 23600 17200 11400 EUR Million
Government Debt to GDP 64.10 62.4 60.5 60.5 60.5 60.1 percent
MARKETS Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Currency 1.14
 1.15 1.14 1.13 1.13 1.1
Stock Market 11341.00
points		 12196 12056 11919 11784 11256
Government Bond 10Y 0.37
percent		 0.52 0.56 0.61 0.66 0.93
GDP Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate -0.20
percent		 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.10
percent		 2 2.1 2 2.2 2.4
GDP 3677.44
USD Billion		 4020 4140 4140 4140 4370
GDP Constant Prices 744.61
EUR Billion		 755 758 761 761 787
Gross National Product 865.14
EUR Billion		 862 874 882 884 899
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 152.55
EUR Billion		 153 155 156 156 159
GDP per capita 46747.19
USD		 47400 48500 48500 48500 49500
GDP per capita PPP 45229.25
USD		 46000 46700 46700 46700 47400
GDP From Agriculture 5.50
EUR Billion		 5.9 5.49 5.6 5.62 6.15
GDP From Construction 39.81
EUR Billion		 41.23 32.53 40.61 40.68 42.97
GDP From Manufacturing 182.00
EUR Billion		 176 179 186 186 183
GDP From Public Administration 134.10
EUR Billion		 142 140 137 137 148
GDP From Services 126.55
EUR Billion		 124 119 129 129 130
LABOUR Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.40
percent		 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 4
Employed Persons 44814.00
Thousand 		44800 44850 44900 45090 45900
Unemployed Persons 2203.85
Thousand 		2490 2520 2550 2600 2710
Unemployment Change -11.00
Thousand		 7 11 15 9 15
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.40
percent		 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.3
Youth Unemployment Rate 6.30
percent		 6 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.9
Labour Costs 113.18
Index Points		 114 114 115 116 120
Productivity 101.20
Index Points		 104 105 105 106 109
Job Vacancies 653.62
Thousand		 670 691 685 668 640
Wages 3875.00
EUR/Month		 3940 3980 4000 4010 4110
Wages in Manufacturing 114.20
Index Points		 114 115 115 116 120
Wage Growth 0.50
percent		 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.8
Minimum Wages 8.84
EUR/Hour		 8.84 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5
Population 82.85
Million		 82.85 83.14 83.14 83.14 83.45
Retirement Age Women 65.58
 65.58 65.67 65.67 65.67 65.75
Retirement Age Men 65.58
 65.58 65.67 65.67 65.67 65.75
Labor Force Participation Rate 60.90
percent		 62 62.4 62.6 62.8 64
Living Wage Family 1990.00
EUR/Month		 2000 2150 2150 2150 2200
Living Wage Individual 1240.00
EUR/Month		 1300 1360 1360 1360 1450
Part Time Employment 10897.10
Thousand		 11800 12000 12100 12250 13500
Wages Low Skilled 2050.00
EUR/Month		 2140 2200 2200 2200 2280
Wages High Skilled 3550.00
EUR/Month		 3650 3700 3700 3700 3750
Employment Change 0.20
percent		 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3
Employment Rate 75.40
percent		 75.9 76 75.9 75.7 75.4
Full Time Employment 29382.30
Thousand		 31200 31400 31500 31600 32500
PRICES Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Inflation Rate 2.50
percent		 2.2 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.4
Inflation Rate Mom 0.20
percent		 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.6
Consumer Price Index CPI 112.30
Index Points		 113 113 113 114 118
Harmonised Consumer Prices 104.80
Index Points		 106 105 106 107 110
Core Consumer Prices 111.20
Index Points		 112 112 112 113 116
Core Inflation Rate 1.74
percent		 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.8 2.1
Producer Prices 104.70
Index Points		 104 105 106 107 109
Producer Prices Change 3.20
percent		 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.4 2.3
Export Prices 102.40
Index Points		 103 104 104 105 107
Import Prices 103.70
Index Points		 104 104 105 106 109
Food Inflation 1.90
percent		 2 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.5
CPI Housing Utilities 112.80
Index Points		 113 113 114 115 118
CPI Transportation 113.10
Index Points		 111 111 114 115 116
MONEY Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Interest Rate 0.00
percent		 0 0 0 0.25 0.75
Interbank Rate -0.32
percent		 -0.32 -0.32 -0.32 -0.07 0.43
Money Supply M1 2146.50
EUR Billion		 2200 2220 2260 2280 2400
Money Supply M2 2986.20
EUR Billion		 3130 3200 3240 3290 3540
Money Supply M3 3017.70
EUR Billion		 3500 3620 3740 3830 4510
Foreign Exchange Reserves 168272.00
EUR Million		 171000 173000 175000 177000 185000
Banks Balance Sheet 7848.14
EUR Billion		 8550 8910 9100 9440 10200
Loans to Private Sector 1445.47
EUR Billion		 1480 1510 1520 1540 1700
Private Debt to GDP 147.60
percent		 142 138 138 138 132
Central Bank Balance Sheet 1817.30
EUR Billion		 1950 2220 2520 3220 4680
TRADE Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Balance of Trade 18395.00
EUR Million		 17400 24000 23600 17200 11400
Exports 109071.00
EUR Million		 94300 107700 106100 103800 91300
Imports 90676.00
EUR Million		 76900 83700 82500 86600 79900
Current Account 21141.17
EUR Million		 17400 30600 20800 19500 15400
External Debt 4882730.00
EUR Million		 4910000 4980000 5060000 5150000 5510000
Current Account to GDP 8.00
percent		 7.8 7.7 7.7 7.7 6.2
Capital Flows 6288.01
EUR Million		 18800 30600 19400 18500 14800
Foreign Direct Investment 15054.43
EUR Million		 2500 15100 11100 7400 2130
Gold Reserves 3369.80
Tonnes		 3400 3400 3400 3400 3400
Terms Of Trade 98.75
Index Points		 99.04 100 99.05 99.06 98.17
Terrorism Index 4.92
 4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92
Tourist Arrivals 37452.00
Thousand		 38800 40000 40000 40000 42100
Weapons Sales 1653.00
USD Million		 1874 1840 1805 1771 1808
Crude Oil Production 41.00
BBL/D/1K		 44 44 44 44 44
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 64.10
percent		 62.4 60.5 60.5 60.5 60.1
Government Budget 1.30
percent of GDP		 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 1
Government Budget Value 10.72
EUR Billion		 13 -2 31 -7 9
Government Spending 141.98
EUR Billion		 144 144 145 145 150
Government Spending to GDP 43.90
percent		 43.8 43.6 43.6 43.6 43.2
Government Revenues 350.39
EUR Billion		 365 325 348 342 381
Government Debt 1771735.10
EUR Million		 1920000 1940000 1950000 1980000 2070000
Fiscal Expenditure 339.67
EUR Billion		 352 327 317 349 372
Military Expenditure 43023.00
USD Million		 44539 44893 45247 45601 48137
Asylum Applications 13190.00
 4300 10900 17500 14200 1900
BUSINESS Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Business Confidence 102.80
Index Points		 103 103 104 103 100
Services PMI 54.70
Index Points		 54.9 54.6 55.1 54.6 53.3
Manufacturing PMI 52.20
 56.3 55.9 56.4 55.5 54.9
Composite Pmi 53.40
Index Points		 55.9 55.5 55.9 55.2 53.1
Industrial Production 0.80
percent		 2.5 2.9 3.2 2.9 2.2
Industrial Production Mom 0.20
percent		 0.9 -0.3 0.5 -0.6 0.6
Manufacturing Production 0.20
percent		 2.6 3 2.8 2.5 2.4
Capacity Utilization 87.10
percent		 86.8 86.7 86.6 86.6 86.2
New Orders 107.50
Index Points		 105 106 107 107 111
Factory Orders 0.30
percent		 0.6 -0.6 0.9 -2 0.6
Changes in Inventories 3.19
EUR Billion		 -5.66 -0.25 -0.55 -0.87 -1.02
Bankruptcies 1616.00
Companies		 1830 1890 1850 1810 1750
Corporate Profits 201.20
EUR Billion		 211 214 216 218 235
Zew Economic Sentiment Index -24.10
 -12 -20 -4 20 25
Car Production 442500.00
Units		 375000 572000 528000 556000 393000
Car Registrations 252628.00
 269000 368000 332000 316200 287000
Internet Speed 15298.72
KBps		 16819 17001 17090 17254 18203
IP Addresses 38794861.00
IP		 43368195 43415303 44341927 44369122 48098428
Mining Production -12.70
percent		 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.9
Steel Production 3775.00
Thousand Tonnes		 3010 3900 3770 3320 3050
Competitiveness Index 82.84
Points		 83.34 83.34 83.34 83.34 85.84
Competitiveness Rank 3.00
 3 3 3 3 3
Corruption Index 81.00
Points		 81 81 81 81 81
Corruption Rank 12.00
 12 12 12 12 12
Ease of Doing Business 24.00
 19 18 18 18 17
CONSUMER Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 10.60
Index Points		 10.4 9.8 9.7 9.6 9
Retail Sales MoM 0.10
percent		 0.9 -0.4 -0.2 0.2 0.2
Retail Sales YoY -2.60
percent		 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 1.8
Consumer Spending 403.88
EUR Billion		 409 411 412 413 426
Disposable Personal Income 494.41
EUR Billion		 498 500 502 505 515
Personal Savings 10.20
percent		 10.5 10.4 10.4 10.3 11
Consumer Credit 232195.00
EUR Million		 265000 271000 274000 279000 295000
Private Sector Credit 2943320.00
EUR Million		 2920000 2930000 2940000 2950000 3120000
Bank Lending Rate 2.05
percent		 2.05 2.05 2.05 2.3 2.8
Gasoline Prices 1.77
USD/Liter		 1.74 1.71 1.68 1.65 1.53
Households Debt To GDP 52.50
percent of GDP		 51.2 50.4 50.4 50.4 49.5
Households Debt To Income 82.51
percent		 79.5 77.4 77.4 77.4 75
HOUSING Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Construction Output 3.80
percent		 4.2 3.6 3.2 2.7 1.9
Housing Index 151.09
Index Points		 159 162 165 167 175
Building Permits 27498.00
 41700 36500 40500 34700 49700
Construction Pmi 49.80
 54.4 54 54.1 53.8 52
Construction Orders 4.10
percent		 3.2 3 2.8 2.5 2.7
Home Ownership Rate 51.70
percent		 51.4 51.2 51.2 51.2 51
TAXES Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 29.79
percent		 29.79 29.79 29.79 29.79 29.79
Personal Income Tax Rate 47.50
percent		 47.5 47.5 47.5 47.5 47.5
Sales Tax Rate 19.00
percent		 19 19 19 19 19
Social Security Rate 40.21
percent		 40.21 40.21 40.21 40.21 40.21
Social Security Rate For Companies 19.43
percent		 19.43 19.43 19.43 19.43 19.43
Social Security Rate For Employees 20.78
percent		 20.78 20.78 20.78 20.78 20.78
CLIMATE Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Temperature 6.65
celsius		 4.06 0.73 10.73 9.76 8.37
Precipitation 33.58
mm		 55.43 46.33 60.34 60.34 60.29



Germany - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook