Greece - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Greece including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Greece economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.20 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 percent
Unemployment Rate 19.10 18.4 17.9 17.5 17.1 15.1 percent
Inflation Rate 1.00 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 2 percent
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0.75 percent
Balance of Trade -20950.00 -1270 -1700 -2110 -1470 -1630 EUR Million
Government Debt to GDP 178.60 176 176 174 174 172 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 1.17
 1.16 1.15 1.15 1.14 1.12
Stock Market 689.59
points		 724 713 703 692 651
Government Bond 10Y 4.11
percent		 4.72 4.85 4.98 5.11 5.69
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.20
percent		 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.80
percent		 1.8 2 1.8 1.9 2.1
GDP 200.29
USD Billion		 207 207 215 215 222
GDP Constant Prices 48178.40
EUR Million		 50305 47734 45036 49094 49662
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 5143.23
EUR Million		 5170 7286 5234 5241 7580
GDP per capita 23027.41
USD		 23400 23400 23800 23800 24500
GDP per capita PPP 24574.38
USD		 25600 25600 25900 25900 26200
GDP From Agriculture 1703.71
EUR Million		 1493 1640 1768 1736 1707
GDP From Construction 1061.00
EUR Million		 1213 1947 802 1081 2025
GDP From Mining 5679.63
EUR Million		 5722 5306 5303 5788 5521
GDP From Public Administration 9197.30
EUR Million		 9048 9234 9361 9372 9607
GDP From Services 9353.98
EUR Million		 11208 7924 7390 9532 8244
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 19.10
percent		 18.4 17.9 17.5 17.1 15.1
Employed Persons 3919.71
Thousand		 3740 3780 3800 3820 3990
Unemployed Persons 862.50
Thousand		 1000 990 980 975 950
Part Time Employment 362.50
Thousand		 383 385 386 388 396
Full Time Employment 3497.90
Thousand		 3580 3600 3610 3620 3700
Employment Rate 81.96
percent		 79.6 79.8 79.9 80 81.2
Long Term Unemployment Rate 14.50
percent		 14.2 13.8 13.6 13.2 12.5
Youth Unemployment Rate 39.10
percent		 41.6 41.2 41 40.5 36
Labour Costs 90.00
Index Points		 80.1 95.9 89.1 90.2 96.6
Job Vacancies 14351.00
 11200 12500 18900 15100 16300
Minimum Wages 683.76
EUR/Month		 684 684 684 684 684
Population 10.74
Million		 10.74 10.74 10.69 10.69 10.64
Retirement Age Women 67.00
 67 67 67 67 67
Retirement Age Men 67.00
 67 67 67 67 67
Labor Force Participation Rate 52.10
percent		 52.6 52.7 52.7 52.8 53.2
Living Wage Family 1020.00
EUR/Month		 1050 1050 1070 1070 1200
Living Wage Individual 580.00
EUR/Month		 580 580 620 620 650
Productivity 93.20
Index Points		 94 94.4 94.6 94.2 95.6
Wages 1060.45
EUR/Month		 1050 1065 1095 1055 1200
Wages High Skilled 1600.00
EUR/Month		 1700 1700 1750 1750 1750
Wages Low Skilled 747.00
EUR/Month		 800 800 850 850 850
Employment Change 0.80
percent		 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 1.00
percent		 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 2
Harmonised Consumer Prices 101.66
Index Points		 103 103 103 105 107
Consumer Price Index CPI 105.49
Index Points		 108 108 108 110 112
Core Consumer Prices 98.20
Index Points		 100 100 100 102 103
Core Inflation Rate -0.30
percent		 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.1 1.7
GDP Deflator 95.00
Index Points		 96 96 98 98 102
Producer Prices 107.70
Index Points		 108 108 106 110 113
Producer Prices Change 8.20
percent		 5.9 4 3.2 2.5 2.3
Import Prices 104.75
Index Points		 102 101 103 103 105
Inflation Rate Mom -0.30
percent		 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5
CPI Housing Utilities 119.64
Index Points		 121 121 121 121 126
CPI Transportation 126.05
Index Points		 122 123 125 131 128
Food Inflation 1.00
percent		 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.8 2
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 0.00
percent		 0 0 0 0 0.75
Interbank Rate -0.32
percent		 -0.32 -0.32 -0.32 -0.32 0.43
Money Supply M0 30839.00
EUR Million		 32800 33100 33700 34200 39900
Money Supply M1 117729.00
EUR Million		 122000 125000 129000 132000 145000
Money Supply M2 172000.00
EUR Million		 179000 180000 182000 184000 199000
Money Supply M3 172783.00
EUR Million		 178000 181000 185000 191000 214000
Foreign Exchange Reserves 6083.00
EUR Million		 5976 7400 5925 5926 8900
Banks Balance Sheet 292558.67
EUR Million		 306000 312000 316000 318000 342000
Loans to Private Sector 85560.61
EUR Million		 89500 89600 90100 91500 101000
Loan Growth -2.50
percent		 -2.6 -0.7 0.2 0.5 1.8
Private Debt to GDP 131.90
percent		 130 130 125 125 119
Central Bank Balance Sheet 109342.00
EUR Million		 108000 115000 119000 125000 151000
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -20950.00
EUR Million		 -1270 -1700 -2110 -1470 -1630
Exports 2938.30
EUR Million		 2650 2750 2810 2770 3050
Imports 5033.30
EUR Million		 3920 4450 4920 4240 4680
Current Account 209.83
EUR Million		 1340 -1100 -1200 950 -780
Current Account to GDP -0.80
percent		 -1 -1 -0.5 -0.5 -0.2
External Debt 401886.95
EUR Million		 415000 419000 424000 428000 445000
Capital Flows 52.15
EUR Million		 1450 -280 -820 750 -360
Remittances 69.40
EUR Million		 62 79 85 87 89
Gold Reserves 113.00
Tonnes		 113 113 113 113 113
Terrorism Index 4.14
 4.14 4.14 4.14 4.14 4.14
Tourism Revenues 2329.70
EUR Million		 2680 250 228 2450 320
Tourist Arrivals 3164181.00
persons		 2851000 401000 372000 2791000 465000
Crude Oil Production 4.00
BBL/D/1K		 4 4 4 4 4
Foreign Direct Investment 307.60
EUR Million		 320 290 750 690 400
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 178.60
percent		 176 176 174 174 172
Government Budget 0.80
percent of GDP		 1.1 1.1 1.5 1.5 0.5
Government Budget Value 695.20
EUR Million		 530 250 410 -700 390
Government Spending 9680.90
EUR Million		 9952 11188 9419 9865 11640
Government Spending to GDP 48.00
percent		 47.5 47.5 46 46 44
Government Revenues 31851.00
EUR Million		 37250 55510 12620 24100 55730
Government Debt 345379.43
EUR Million		 342000 346000 349000 350000 362000
Fiscal Expenditure 33089.00
EUR Million		 36720 55260 12210 24800 55340
Military Expenditure 4959.43
USD Million		 4935 4910 4908 4905 4910
Asylum Applications 5585.00
persons		 4500 5400 2800 4200 2500
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence 105.20
Index Points		 105 107 106 108 109
Manufacturing PMI 53.90
 53.4 53.8 53.4 53.6 54
Industrial Production 1.90
percent		 2.2 1.9 2.5 2.4 2.2
Industrial Production Mom 0.70
percent		 -0.7 1.6 -0.8 1.8 1.2
Manufacturing Production 4.10
percent		 3 2.8 2.5 2.2 2.1
Capacity Utilization 69.60
percent		 70.9 71.1 71.4 71.7 74
New Orders -3.00
percent		 -10 -8 -7 -10 -4
Car Registrations 7681.00
 6100 6650 10100 10900 8650
Internet Speed 7862.25
KBps		 7229 7602 7796 7500 7668
IP Addresses 3133476.00
IP		 3062959 3062881 3057048 3052179 3019259
Mining Production 9.60
percent		 0.5 1 1.5 1.7 1.4
Steel Production 130.00
Thousand Tonnes		 50 120 95 130 136
Changes In Inventories 33.68
EUR Million		 -271 -133 -208 -284 -269
Competitiveness Index 4.02
Points		 4 4.02 4.07 4.07 4.11
Competitiveness Rank 87.00
 87 87 86 86 85
Ease of Doing Business 67.00
 66 66 65 65 64
Electricity Production 4132.00
Gigawatt-hour		 4000 5100 3870 4400 5150
Corruption Index 48.00
Points		 49 49 50 50 51
Corruption Rank 59.00
 58 58 57 57 56
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence -47.80
Index Points		 -44.4 -43 -40 -37 -27
Retail Sales MoM 0.00
percent		 -0.8 1.5 -0.4 0.8 0.9
Retail Sales YoY 1.80
percent		 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.7 2
Consumer Spending 32618.90
EUR Million		 32258 32649 31606 33239 33968
Private Sector Credit 177419.35
EUR Million		 184000 191000 195000 197000 215000
Bank Lending Rate 4.87
percent		 4.87 4.87 4.87 4.87 5.62
Consumer Credit 20792.81
EUR Million		 22400 26100 26900 27200 39100
Gasoline Prices 1.91
USD/Liter		 1.95 1.84 1.74 1.64 1.3
Households Debt To Gdp 57.20
percent of GDP		 58 58 54.9 54.9 51.9
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Housing Index 59.50
Index Points		 60.5 62 62.5 63 66
Building Permits 1374.00
units		 1140 1320 1400 1290 2740
Home Ownership Rate 73.30
percent		 73.2 73.2 72.7 72.7 72
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 29.00
percent		 29 29 29 29 29
Personal Income Tax Rate 45.00
percent		 45 45 45 45 45
Sales Tax Rate 24.00
percent		 24 24 24 24 24
Social Security Rate 40.06
percent		 40.06 40.06 40.06 40.06 40.06
Social Security Rate For Companies 24.06
percent		 24.06 24.06 24.06 24.06 24.06
Social Security Rate For Employees 16.00
percent		 16 16 16 16 16
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Temperature 5.93
celsius		 23.19 11.38 7.1 21.47 15.13
Precipitation 8.87
mm		 23.49 89.87 71.83 54.23 57.76