Hong Kong - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Hong Kong including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Hong Kong economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 2.20 1.4 0.5 0.9 0.9 1 percent
Unemployment Rate 2.80 2.8 3.5 2.8 2.8 3.9 percent
Inflation Rate 2.10 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.8 percent
Interest Rate 2.25 2.5 2.75 2.75 3 3.25 percent
Balance of Trade -43250.00 -47790 -47429 -47035 -46926 -47000 HKD Million
Government Debt to GDP 38.40 33 33 32 32 31 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 7.85
7.84 7.84 7.84 7.84 7.84
Stock Market 28224.48
points
27078 25963 24892 23867 20170
Government Bond 10Y 2.16
percent
2.42 2.61 2.81 3.02 4.04
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 2.20
percent
1.4 0.5 0.9 0.9 1
GDP Annual Growth Rate 4.70
percent
2.9 2.6 3 5.2 3.2
GDP 341.45
USD Billion
354 354 365 365 404
GDP Constant Prices 652077.00
HKD Million
666785 709803 671639 645368 753760
Gross National Product 672800.00
HKD Million
697536 727057 692984 695991 772083
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 131961.00
HKD Million
135570 157357 135920 147743 167101
GDP per capita 37927.13
USD
38055 38055 39066 39066 40120
GDP per capita PPP 56054.92
USD
56502 56502 57406 57406 57760
GDP From Agriculture 432.00
HKD Million
468 465 445 548 494
GDP From Construction 33378.00
HKD Million
30700 34121 34379 33369 36234
GDP From Manufacturing 6344.00
HKD Million
7166 7049 6534 7102 7485
GDP From Public Administration 110468.00
HKD Million
116856 116624 113782 120814 123847
GDP From Services 574889.00
HKD Million
596698 640855 592136 572895 680542
GDP From Transport 38847.00
HKD Million
38416 40164 40012 35901 42651
GDP From Utilities 7975.00
HKD Million
10468 7897 8214 9412 8386
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 2.80
percent
2.8 3.5 2.8 2.8 3.9
Employed Persons 3869.80
Thousand
3879 3882 3886 3889 3901
Unemployed Persons 112.40
Thousand
116 116 116 116 116
Labor Force Participation Rate 61.20
percent
61.3 61.26 61.28 61.27 61.27
Productivity 160.10
Index Points
163 164 165 166 179
Job Vacancies 76875.00
76437 76509 77579 76601 76916
Wages 15897.00
HKD/Month
16400 16400 16350 16201 17300
Wages in Manufacturing 215.00
Index Points
218 218 219 220 220
Minimum Wages 34.50
HKD/Hour
34.5 34.5 36.5 36.5 36.5
Population 7.41
Million
7.44 7.5 7.46 7.47 7.7
Retirement Age Men 65.00
65 65 65 65 65
Retirement Age Women 65.00
65 65 65 65 65
Youth Unemployment Rate 5.20
percent
4.94 5 4.98 4.98 4.98
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 2.10
percent
2.5 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.8
Consumer Price Index CPI 106.50
Index Points
107 108 109 109 114
GDP Deflator 105.50
Index Points
107 108 109 110 116
Producer Prices 112.30
Index Points
115 114 116 117 122
Export Prices 103.50
Index Points
104 104 104 104 104
Import Prices 103.70
Index Points
104 105 105 105 106
Producer Prices Change 3.80
percent
3.4 3 3.2 4.11 3.8
Inflation Rate Mom 0.00
percent
0.21 0.25 0.24 0.25 0.25
Food Inflation 4.70
percent
5.09 5.38 5.65 5.83 6.32
CPI Transportation 105.20
Index Points
107 107 108 109 112
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 2.25
percent
2.5 2.75 2.75 3 3.25
Interbank Rate 2.07
percent
2.32 2.57 2.57 2.82 3.07
Money Supply M0 462139.66
HKD Million
477567 486856 496017 505189 595057
Money Supply M1 2545371.40
HKD Million
2640758 2645156 2645260 2645022 2644824
Money Supply M2 14009102.80
HKD Million
14309843 14537551 14755464 14969601 17057921
Money Supply M3 14061117.80
HKD Million
14362413 14591288 14810349 15025588 17123828
Foreign Exchange Reserves 431900.00
USD Million
436400 441824 447262 452648 503482
Banks Balance Sheet 23623977.09
HKD Million
24079786 24436831 24794988 25149996 28515161
Loans to Private Sector 9722738.30
HKD Million
10034662 10201881 10346168 10474201 11204405
Deposit Interest Rate 0.00
percent
0.25 0.5 0.5 0.75 1
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -43250.00
HKD Million
-47790 -47429 -47035 -46926 -47000
Exports 351368.00
HKD Million
336263 334556 335607 335752 335670
Imports 394618.00
HKD Million
384053 382408 382641 382678 382670
Current Account 16251.00
HKD Million
45183 31300 19776 23456 26300
Current Account to GDP 4.20
percent
3.9 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.1
Terms of Trade 99.80
Index Points
99.49 98.76 98.93 98.69 97.67
Capital Flows -44572.00
HKD Million
-65192 -44538 -51219 -61679 -53996
Tourist Arrivals 4953003.00
5091900 5074500 5064700 5068300 5068600
Gold Reserves 2.10
Tonnes
2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1
Foreign Direct Investment 13356.84
HKD Billion
13848 13934 14102 14269 16376
External Debt 12775626.00
HKD Million
13162104 13339197 13372280 13415954 13318685
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 38.40
percent
33 33 32 32 31
Government Budget 2.20
percent of GDP
2.32 2 2.04 2.09 1.5
Government Budget Value 42902.00
HKD Million
-28841 76111 43959 -32024 63170
Government Spending 69090.00
HKD Million
65324 65652 71163 64237 69717
Government Revenues 141627.00
HKD Million
67516 175379 140516 63829 159355
Fiscal Expenditure 98725.00
HKD Million
96357 96199 96558 95853 96185
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence 6.00
Index Points
9 6.81 3.86 6.24 6.57
Manufacturing PMI 47.70
51.9 49.4 50.2 51.4 51.8
Industrial Production 1.10
percent
1.17 2.5 0.97 0.93 3.4
Changes in Inventories 542.00
HKD Million
206 2718 1847 1027 1310
Bankruptcies 11512.00
Companies
11797 11387 11265 11213 11179
Car Registrations 3083.00
2799 2765 2745 2730 2689
Internet Speed 21908.83
KBps
23243 23068 23153 23352 23431
IP Addresses 3132077.00
IP
3396752 3435135 3472362 3508706 3848651
Competitiveness Index 5.53
Points
5.49 5.49 5.52 5.53 5.52
Competitiveness Rank 6.00
9 9 7 6 6
Ease of Doing Business 5.00
5 5 5 5 5
Corruption Index 77.00
Points
76 76 76 76 77
Corruption Rank 13.00
12 12 11 11 14
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 108.00
Index Points
108 109 109 109 109
Retail Sales YoY 11.60
percent
11.81 3.9 11.73 11.73 4.4
Consumer Spending 450653.00
HKD Million
432303 476195 464173 458625 505685
Personal Savings 0.01
percent
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Bank Lending Rate 5.00
percent
5.25 5.5 5.5 5.75 6
Retail Sales Mom 3.10
percent
-0.89 1.59 0.52 0.81 0.74
Households Debt To Gdp 70.60
percent of GDP
72.15 72.67 73 73.32 74.64
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Housing Index 176.11
Index points
183 184 185 185 186
Home Ownership Rate 49.20
percent
49.03 48.6 48.51 48.42 47.49
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 16.50
percent
16.5 16.5 17 17 17
Personal Income Tax Rate 15.00
percent
15 15 15 15 15
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Temperature 28.52
celsius
28.03 21.08 16.66 24.32 23.21