Retail sales volume in Hong Kong fell 10.4 percent year-on-year in February of 2019, compared to 6.9 percent rise in the previous month. It was the biggest decline since August of 2016, due to Lunar New Year holiday which fell in the first week of February this year. Sales dropped for food, alcoholic drinks and tobacco (-17.8 percent from 8.7 percent in January); clothing, footwear & allied products (-9.4 percent from 5.2 percent); consumer durable goods (-16.8 percent from -2.7 percent); fuels (-3.4 percent from -0.4 percent); jewellery, watches & clocks (-9.1 percent from 7.4 percent) and for other consumer goods (-8.4 percent from 10.6 percent). Retail Sales YoY in Hong Kong averaged 5.51 percent from 2005 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 30.60 percent in February of 2010 and a record low of -18.50 percent in February of 2016.
Retail Sales YoY in Hong Kong is expected to be 3.20 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in Hong Kong to stand at 5.20 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Hong Kong Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 4.40 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.