Retail sales volume in Hong Kong went down 7.6 percent year-on-year in June of 2019, following an upwardly revised 1.8 percent fall in the previous month. It was the fifth straight month of drop in retail sales, as sales continued to decline for food, alcoholic drinks & tobacco (-8.0 percent vs -1.4 percent in May); clothing, footwear & allied products (-4.5 percent vs -3.6 percent); consumer durable goods (-10.1 percent vs -7.6 percent) and jewellery, watches & clocks (-17.1 percent vs -1.9 percent). On the other hand, fuels sales rebounded (0.2 percent vs -8.6 percent) while supermarkets sales dropped at a softer pace (-5.0 percent vs -5.9 percent). On a monthly basis, retail sales went down 12.5 percent, after increasing 6.4 percent in the prior month. Retail Sales YoY in Hong Kong averaged 5.29 percent from 2005 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 30.60 percent in February of 2010 and a record low of -18.50 percent in February of 2016.
Retail Sales YoY in Hong Kong is expected to be -8.50 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in Hong Kong to stand at 2.90 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Hong Kong Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 4.40 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.