Iceland - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Iceland including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Iceland economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate -2.60 0.5 0.6 0.6 1.1 0.5 percent
Unemployment Rate 2.30 2.8 3 3 3.2 3.4 percent
Inflation Rate 2.60 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.8 percent
Interest Rate 4.25 4 4 3.75 3.75 3.5 percent
Balance of Trade -20900.00 -20100 -25900 -8700 -14000 -22100 ISK Million
Government Debt to GDP 42.30 40 40 38 38 37 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 106.16
110 113 116 119 133
Stock Market 1285.45
points
1283 1244 1207 1171 1036
Government Bond 10y 5.34
percent
5.62 5.83 6.06 6.29 7.3
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate -2.60
percent
0.5 0.6 0.6 1.1 0.5
GDP Annual Growth Rate 5.40
percent
3.2 3.2 4.7 3 2.7
GDP 23.91
USD Billion
26 26 29 29 32
GDP Constant Prices 352200.00
ISK Million
364963 373098 368753 358846 394667
Gross National Product 1405632.00
ISK Million
1373777 1450612 1471697 1392707 1534472
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 72724.00
ISK Million
78543 76196 76142 77018 80601
GDP per capita 49910.01
USD
50179 50179 50350 50350 50220
GDP per capita PPP 46482.96
USD
46857 46857 47004 47004 47205
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 2.30
percent
2.8 3 3 3.2 3.4
Employed Persons 200200.00
201008 201665 202298 202888 206660
Unemployed Persons 4700.00
5632 5289 5425 5398 5399
Labor Force Participation Rate 81.60
percent
82.21 82.16 82.13 82.11 82.1
Youth Unemployment Rate 7.20
percent
6.17 6.15 6.16 6.16 6.16
Job Vacancies 143.00
131 143 149 148 147
Wages 615000.00
ISK/Month
700000 700000 750000 702504 800000
Wage Growth 4.80
percent
4.83 4.83 4.83 4.83 4.83
Population 0.35
Million
0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.36
Retirement Age Women 67.00
67 67 67 67 67
Retirement Age Men 67.00
67 67 67 67 67
Part Time Employment 44.10
Thousand
38.59 44.22 43.32 37.98 42.92
Full Time Employment 139.40
Thousand
148 140 141 150 141
Employment Rate 79.70
percent
79.7 79.6 79.6 79.5 79
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 2.60
percent
2.7 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.8
Harmonised Consumer Prices 101.30
Index Points
101 101 101 104 107
Consumer Price Index CPI 454.60
Index Points
457 459 464 466 484
Core Consumer Prices 255.50
Index Points
258 258 261 261 273
Core Inflation Rate 2.10
percent
2.6 2.5 2.7 2.28 2.8
GDP Deflator 180.35
Index Points
183 183 184 184 190
Producer Prices 197.30
Index Points
207 198 197 202 210
Export Prices 187.47
Index Points
181 178 176 174 166
Import Prices 197.40
Index Points
188 188 186 184 183
Producer Prices Change 8.50
percent
1.5 2.2 2.3 2.35 3
Inflation Rate Mom 0.60
percent
0.18 0.5 0.22 0.22 0.5
CPI Housing Utilities 439.50
Index Points
437 438 448 450 461
CPI Transportation 152.22
Index Points
153 154 153 156 162
Food Inflation 3.00
percent
3.73 3.83 3.84 3.84 3.84
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 4.25
percent
4 4 3.75 3.75 3.5
Interbank Rate 4.45
percent
4.2 4.2 3.95 3.95 3.7
Money Supply M0 128.52
ISK Billion
220 250 270 130 450
Money Supply M1 500.84
ISK Billion
525 541 514 516 598
Money Supply M2 1084.40
ISK Billion
1470 1790 1080 1081 2550
Money Supply M3 1762.35
ISK Billion
2340 2640 1787 1791 3420
Foreign Exchange Reserves 681982.41
ISK Million
688068 687656 687825 687935 687930
Banks Balance Sheet 3525918.00
ISK Million
3521265 3521118 3521088 3521086 3521086
Private Debt to GDP 314.90
percent
309 307 307 306 303
Central Bank Balance Sheet 726467.00
ISK Million
729292 729230 729299 729321 729325
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -20900.00
ISK Million
-20100 -25900 -8700 -14000 -22100
Exports 50700.00
ISK Million
47100 45200 50100 48200 51500
Imports 71600.00
ISK Million
67200 71100 58800 62200 73600
Current Account 0.29
ISK Billion
30.48 15.95 11.38 6.74 13.83
Current Account to GDP 3.70
percent
1.5 1.5 1.1 1.1 1.2
External Debt 2233.92
ISK Billion
1850 1800 80575 80693 1400
Capital Flows 57.23
ISK Billion
13.33 62.71 27.6 35.19 32.42
Gold Reserves 2.00
Tonnes
1.99 1.99 1.99 1.99 1.99
Remittances 1113.00
ISK Million
965 999 1012 1005 1002
Terrorism Index 0.13
0.29 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28
Tourist Arrivals 165240.00
142300 128000 115700 105500 68800
Foreign Direct Investment -22.48
ISK Billion
32 45 -230 -233 55
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 42.30
percent
40 40 38 38 37
Government Budget 1.50
percent of GDP
1.1 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.7
Government Budget Value 9.60
ISK Billion
8.57 7.38 11.81 9.5 9.17
Government Spending 71623.00
ISK Million
71542 77128 74989 74671 81586
Government Spending to GDP 41.90
percent
43.76 43.71 43.52 43.33 43.52
Government Revenues 275.00
ISK Billion
280 279 282 281 281
Fiscal Expenditure 265.40
ISK Billion
272 273 270 271 271
Asylum Applications 45.00
persons
65.02 67.18 67.85 68.07 68.33
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Changes in Inventories 11963.00
ISK Million
9431 -8113 9702 -8710 -5491
Car Registrations 3638.00
2618 2450 2589 2597 2579
Internet Speed 16496.34
KBps
15837 15768 15787 15781 15754
IP Addresses 152051.00
IP
151502 149985 151155 149984 149976
Bankruptcies 123.00
Companies
86.56 85.26 85.06 85.03 85.02
Corruption Index 77.00
Points
77 77 77 76 76
Corruption Rank 13.00
13 13 13 13 13
Competitiveness Index 4.99
Points
4.98 4.98 4.98 4.98 4.98
Competitiveness Rank 28.00
25 25 27 27 26
Ease of Doing Business 23.00
21 21 22 22 23
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 104.10
Index Points
107 107 107 107 107
Consumer Spending 180211.00
ISK Million
177784 205500 188681 195587 217380
Disposable Personal Income 3634.70
ISK Thousand
3775 3854 3892 3931 4405
Gasoline Prices 2.03
USD/Liter
1.92 1.82 1.71 1.62 0.93
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Housing Index 428.80
Index Points
436 443 447 451 468
Housing Starts 2836.00
units
2647 3113 3059 3004 2558
Home Ownership Rate 78.70
percent
79.45 79.87 80.13 80.4 82.94
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00
percent
20 20 20 20 20
Personal Income Tax Rate 46.30
percent
46.3 46.3 46 46 45
Sales Tax Rate 24.00
percent
24 24 24 24 24
Social Security Rate 10.84
percent
10.84 10.84 11.5 12 12
Social Security Rate For Companies 6.84
percent
6.66 6.66 6.97 7.07 7.1
Social Security Rate For Employees 4.00
percent
3.13 3.13 3.78 3.99 3.99
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Temperature -2.72
celsius
7.15 -1.33 -3.26 2.75 1.45
Precipitation 119.47
mm
82.69 102 84.95 92.68 83.85