India's trade deficit narrowed to USD 13.45 billion in August 2019 from USD 17.92 billion in the same month last year and below market expectations of USD 13.60 billion. Merchandise exports fell 6.05 percent to USD 26.13 billion, due mainly to a 12.29 percent slump in sales of gems and jewellery. Meanwhile, major commodity groups posted positive growth: iron ore (356.66 percent); electronic goods (45.89 percent); spices (35.35 percent); marine products (5.28 percent); and mica, coal & other ores, minerals (2.24 percent). Meanwhile, imports tumbled 13.45 percent to USD 39.58 billion as purchases fell for coal, coke & briquettes (-23.75 percent), organic & inorganic chemicals (-14.95 percent), petroleum, crude & products (-8.90 percent), machinery, electrical & non-electrical (-8.80 percent) and electronic goods (-4.12 percent). Considering April-August 2019-20, the trade deficit narrowed to USD 72.85 billion from USD 83.19 billion in the same period of the previous fiscal year. Balance of Trade in India averaged -2645.81 USD Million from 1957 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 258.90 USD Million in March of 1977 and a record low of -20210.90 USD Million in October of 2012.
Balance of Trade in India is expected to be -15500.00 USD Million by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Balance of Trade in India to stand at -16200.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the India Balance of Trade is projected to trend around -14100.00 USD Million in 2020, according to our econometric models.