India - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for India including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the India economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.90 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.3 percent
Unemployment Rate 3.52 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 percent
Inflation Rate 5.00 5.1 4.7 4.4 4.4 4.8 percent
Interest Rate 6.25 6.25 6.5 6.5 6.75 5.75 percent
Balance of Trade -16600.00 -14300 -14900 -15477 -16017 -11100 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 68.70 69.2 69.2 69 69 70 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 68.32
69.38 70.13 70.9 71.67 74.85
Stock Market 36380.13
points
34656 33774 32917 32081 28944
Government Bond 10Y 7.75
percent
8.06 8.29 8.52 8.76 9.78
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 1.90
percent
1.4 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.3
GDP Annual Growth Rate 7.70
percent
7.4 7.2 7 6.9 5.7
GDP 2597.49
USD Billion
2700 2700 2900 2900 3100
GDP Constant Prices 34768.27
INR Billion
32895 34770 37202 33336 39141
Gross National Product 12865461.00
INR Tens Of Million
12497431 13791774 13766043 12883080 15525469
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 11185.28
INR Billion
10130 10977 11968 10349 12357
GDP per capita 1963.55
USD
2500 2500 3100 3100 3500
GDP per capita PPP 6426.67
USD
6900 6900 7100 7100 7200
GDP From Agriculture 4759.48
INR Billion
3457 6075 5093 4261 6838
GDP From Construction 2413.76
INR Billion
2287 2545 2583 2450 2865
GDP From Manufacturing 5942.29
INR Billion
5638 5647 6358 5362 6357
GDP From Mining 1151.85
INR Billion
795 957 1232 1078 1077
GDP From Public Administration 4156.96
INR Billion
3952 4301 4448 3813 4842
GDP From Utilities 650.72
INR Billion
692 688 696 711 774
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.52
percent
3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6
Employed Persons 29650.00
Thousand
29909 30126 30155 30183 32200
Unemployed Persons 44.85
Million
43.53 43.15 42.95 42.75 44.2
Labor Force Participation Rate 52.50
percent
51.51 53.54 51.46 51.79 55.32
Population 1283.60
Million
1293 1320 1300 1303 1340
Retirement Age Women 60.00
60 60 60 60 60
Retirement Age Men 60.00
60 60 60 60 60
Living Wage Family 17400.00
INR/Month
18500 18500 19800 17400 19800
Living Wage Individual 11000.00
INR/Month
13100 14000 10986 10984 18000
Wages 272.19
INR/Day
362 362 386 386 400
Wages High Skilled 44000.00
INR/Month
65500 65500 45500 46993 46500
Wages In Manufacturing 347.30
INR/Day
450 450 470 470 500
Wages Low Skilled 10300.00
INR/Month
16000 16000 17000 11695 18000
Youth Unemployment Rate 12.90
percent
15.5 15.2 15.5 15.5 13.5
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 5.00
percent
5.1 4.7 4.4 4.4 4.8
Consumer Price Index CPI 138.60
Index Points
142 144 143 145 157
GDP Deflator 128.80
Index Points
130 130 122 123 145
Producer Prices 119.20
Index Points
119 120 120 124 132
Producer Prices Change 5.77
percent
4.2 3.9 3.3 3.8 5.9
Export Prices 372.00
Index Points
390 389 393 397 438
Import Prices 523.00
Index Points
510 520 505 509 510
Food Inflation 2.91
percent
4 4.2 3.9 2.77 4.7
Inflation Rate Mom 0.57
percent
0.38 0.2 0.38 0.38 0.32
Cpi Housing Utilities 142.50
Index Points
143 146 148 149 160
CPI Transportation 123.70
Index Points
124 124 126 129 136
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 6.25
percent
6.25 6.5 6.5 6.75 5.75
Cash Reserve Ratio 4.00
percent
4 4 4 4 4
Interbank Rate 6.48
percent
6.48 6.73 6.73 6.98 5.98
Money Supply M1 31639.00
INR Billion
31310 31385 31274 31327 31326
Money Supply M2 32739.15
INR Billion
32230 32323 32325 32319 32320
Money Supply M3 140522.02
INR Billion
143582 146416 149249 152078 180076
Central Bank Balance Sheet 16484.25
INR Billions
16701 16649 16595 16621 16617
Foreign Exchange Reserves 405810.00
USD Million
400356 397165 395520 394672 393771
Loan Growth 12.80
percent
12.51 8.5 12.53 12.53 7
Reverse Repo Rate 6.00
percent
5.75 5.5 5.5 6.01 5
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -16600.00
USD Million
-14300 -14900 -15477 -16017 -11100
Exports 27700.00
USD Million
25000 24500 28086 27524 28900
Imports 44300.00
USD Million
39300 39400 43562 43542 40000
Current Account -13000.00
USD Million
-10728 -4100 -11613 -14305 -2460
Current Account to GDP -1.90
percent
-1.3 -1.3 -1.1 -1.1 -1.2
External Debt 529673.00
USD Million
546000 552000 559000 565000 626000
Terms of Trade 71.10
Index Points
76.36 76.42 77.82 78.06 85.95
Capital Flows -42.87
USD Million
5.01 22.59 10.08 10.04 9.29
Foreign Direct Investment 3971.00
USD Million
3066 3085 3063 3067 3066
Remittances 12003.97
USD Million
11907 11919 11942 11927 11929
Tourist Arrivals 606043.00
831300 913200 821600 805800 762000
Gold Reserves 560.30
Tonnes
560 560 560 560 560
Crude Oil Production 732.00
BBL/D/1K
730 730 730 730 730
Terrorism Index 7.53
7.45 7.59 7.58 7.57 7.57
Weapons Sales 56.00
USD Million
44.93 46.27 45.53 44.8 35.62
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 68.70
percent
69.2 69.2 69 69 70
Government Budget -3.53
percent of GDP
-3.4 -3.4 -3.4 -4.13 -3
Government Budget Value -3454.93
INR Billion
-5010 -6263 -4878 -4569 -6208
Government Spending 3310.31
INR Billion
3881 3486 3542 3948 3924
Government Revenues 1274.61
INR Billion
6590 11200 15500 2350 12500
Fiscal Expenditure 4729.54
INR Billion
11600 17463 20378 6919 18708
Military Expenditure 59757.10
USD Million
60624 61245 61390 61535 65107
Government Spending To Gdp 12.74
percent of GDP
12.59 12.29 12.25 12.21 12.44
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence 59.70
Index Points
56.5 57 57.4 57.49 59
Manufacturing PMI 53.10
51.8 52.1 51.9 51.8 51.2
Services PMI 52.60
Index Points
51 52.1 50.4 51.5 51.9
Industrial Production 3.20
percent
3.7 4.1 4.8 4.5 6.5
Industrial Production Mom 4.80
percent
-0.47 -0.17 0.3 0.55 0.87
Manufacturing Production 2.80
percent
2.2 4.1 6.2 4.8 5.6
Changes in Inventories 258.73
INR Billion
300 319 333 344 369
Car Production 232042.00
Units
260114 218189 262936 230628 238720
Car Registrations 246637.00
253652 252074 252324 252336 252315
Internet Speed 6492.06
KBps
11003 11681 12339 12979 18445
IP Addresses 9378846.00
IP
9484147 9485862 9489341 9489453 9490569
Mining Production 5.70
percent
2.5 2.8 2.3 1.7 2.1
Steel Production 8822.00
Thousand Tonnes
8723 8792 8824 8803 8802
Cement Production 25871.00
Thousands of Tonnes
23425 27460 29690 26097 29791
Competitiveness Index 4.59
Points
4.61 4.61 4.59 4.58 5.51
Competitiveness Rank 40.00
44 44 39 38 51
Composite Pmi 53.30
51.67 53 51.64 51.58 51.6
Corruption Index 40.00
Points
40 40 40 40 42
Corruption Rank 81.00
83 74 84 83 72
Ease of Doing Business 100.00
128 128 115 116 126
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 95.10
Index Points
102 103 105 95.25 97
Consumer Spending 18988.44
INR Billion
17900 20572 20318 18183 23158
Disposable Personal Income 169623970.00
INR Million
179611698 183284086 186581355 189878625 231000000
Personal Savings 26099.21
INR Billion
27274 27600 28034 28468 32403
Bank Lending Rate 9.45
percent
9.45 9.7 9.7 9.95 8.95
Households Debt To Gdp 10.90
percent of GDP
11.28 11.27 11.44 11.42 11.85
Gasoline Prices 1.10
USD/Liter
1.04 0.98 0.93 0.88 0.49
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Housing Index 148.00
Index Points
150 154 152 154 175
Construction Output 3.60
percent
4.7 4.5 4.3 4.4 3
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 34.61
percent
34.61 34.61 35 35 30
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.54
percent
35.54 35.54 35.25 35 35.54
Sales Tax Rate 18.00
percent
18 18 18 20 18
Social Security Rate 24.00
percent
24 24 24 24 24
Social Security Rate For Companies 12.00
percent
12 12 12 12 12
Social Security Rate For Employees 12.00
percent
12 12 12 12 12
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Temperature 18.62
celsius
26.34 20.64 20.01 24.36 24.46
Precipitation 6.30
mm
224 35.48 14.75 85.6 89.85