Indonesia’s trade surplus narrowed sharply to USD 0.20 billion in June 2019 from a USD 1.71 billion in the same month a year earlier and below market consensus of USD 0.69 billion. Exports fell 8.98 percent year-on-year to USD 11.78 billion while imports rose 2.80 percent to USD 11.58 billion. Considering the first half of the year, the trade balance recorded a deficit of USD 1.93 billion, compared with a deficit of USD 1.20 billion in the same period of 2018. Balance of Trade in Indonesia averaged 732.12 USD Million from 1960 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 4641.92 USD Million in December of 2006 and a record low of -2501.90 USD Million in April of 2019.

Balance of Trade in Indonesia is expected to be 500.00 USD Million by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Balance of Trade in Indonesia to stand at -800.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Indonesia Balance of Trade is projected to trend around 300.00 USD Million in 2020, according to our econometric models.

Indonesia Balance of Trade
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Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2019-04-15 04:00 AM Balance of Trade Mar $0.54B $0.33B $-0.18B
2019-05-15 04:00 AM Balance of Trade Apr $-2.5B $0.67B $-0.5B $-1.0B
2019-06-24 04:00 AM Balance of Trade May $0.21B $-2.5B $-1.38B $-1.4B
2019-07-15 04:00 AM Balance of Trade Jun $0.2B $0.20B $0.69B $-1.2B
2019-08-15 04:00 AM Balance of Trade Jul $0.2B $-1.7B
2019-09-15 04:00 AM Balance of Trade Aug $-0.6B
2019-10-15 04:00 AM Balance of Trade Sep $ 0.5B



Indonesia Trade Surplus Smaller than Estimated

Indonesia’s trade surplus narrowed sharply to USD 0.20 billion in June 2019 from a USD 1.71 billion in the same month a year earlier and below market consensus of USD 0.69 billion, as exports fell while imports rose.

Exports from Indonesia dropped 8.98 percent from a year earlier to USD 11.78 billion in June 2019, worse than market consensus of a 8.7 percent decline and after a downwardly revised 8.48 percent slide in the prior month. It was the eighth straight month of decrease in exports, as sales of non-oil and gas products fell by 2.31 percent to USD 11.03 billion and those of oil and gas plunged by 54.69 percent to USD 0.75 billion.
 
Compared to the previous month, exports tumbled 20.54 percent, as sales non-oil and gas products dropped 19.39 percent and those oil and gas plunged by 34.36 percent. By categories, outbound shipments decreased for mineral fuel (-16.31 percent); animal/nabat fats and oils (-11.77 percent); electric machinery/equipment (-20.17 percent); vehicles and parts (-26.85 percent); machinery/air craft mechanics (-29.80 percent). By contrast, sales increased for ships (956.78 percent); jewelery (88.66 percent); tin (3.28 percent); fertilizer (9.63 percent); sugar and confectionary (9.98 percent).
 
Sales declined to: Japan (-14.63 percent); the US (-34.20 percent); China (-19.88 percent); Italy (-42.66 percent); Malaysia (-13.02 percent); Thailand (-26.30 percent); Germany (-27.42 percent); India (-31.77 percent); Taiwan (-28.15 percent); the Netherlands (-23.37 percent), and South Korea (-5.25 percent). Meanwhile, outbound shipment rose to Singapore (11.61 percent); Australia (2.23 percent).
 
Imports increased 2.80 percent from a year earlier to USD 11.58 billion in June, reversing a downwardly revised 17.30 percent plunge in the prior month. It marked the first yearly increase in inbound shipments amid efforts from the government to reduce purchases and help manage the country's current account deficit. Purchases of non-oil and gas rose 8.15 percent to USD 9.87 billion while those of oil and gas contracted 19.99 percent from a year earlier to USD 1.71 billion.
 
Compared to the prior month, imports tumbled 20.70 percent, with purchases of non-oil and gas decreased 20.55 percent and those of oil and gas dropped by 21.50 percent. Imports went down for all categories: raw material (-17.78 percent); capital goods (-25.53 percent); and consumption goods (-33.57 percent). Among major trading partners, imports shrank from: China (-28.63 percent); the US (-7.65 percent); South Korea (-20.81 percent); India (-33.25 percent); Thailand (-9.61 percent); Italy (-31.58 percent); Malaysia (-37.10 percent); Taiwan (-21.45 percent); Germany (-26.97 percent); and the Netherlands (-20.82 percent).  Meantime, imports increased from Japan (7.38 percent); Australia (17.76 percent); and Singapore (4.87 percent).

Considering the first half of the year, the trade balance recorded a deficit of USD 1.93 billion, compared with a deficit of USD 1.20 billion in the same period of 2018.
 
 
 
 
 



Statistics Indonesia l Chusnul Ch Manan | chusnul@tradingeconomics.com
7/15/2019 7:20:12 AM



Indonesia Trade Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Balance of Trade 196.00 245.50 4641.92 -2501.90 USD Million [+]
Current Account -6966.00 -9147.60 3795.00 -10125.60 USD Million [+]
Current Account to GDP -3.00 -1.60 4.80 -6.80 percent [+]
Imports 11583.80 14606.70 18297.11 21.00 USD Million [+]
Exports 11779.80 14852.20 18647.83 30.00 USD Million [+]
External Debt 387592.08 377597.83 387592.08 119594.10 USD Million [+]
Terms of Trade 107.22 107.60 117.70 77.43 Index Points [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 107.90 99.00 112.00 35.40 IDR Trillion [+]
Remittances 2761.07 2713.92 2835.19 1202.00 USD Million [+]
Tourist Arrivals 1256325.00 1303808.00 1536489.00 548821.00 [+]
Gold Reserves 78.50 78.50 96.45 73.09 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 764.00 768.00 1720.00 747.00 BBL/D/1K [+]
Terrorism Index 4.54 4.55 6.55 3.92 [+]
Weapons Sales 15.00 94.00 94.00 1.00 USD Million [+]

Exports by Country  |   Exports by Category  |   Imports by Country  |   Imports by Category



Indonesia Balance of Trade

Since the 1970’s Indonesia has been recording consistent trade surpluses due to robust exports growth. However, from 2012 to 2014 the country started recording trade deficits, as exports shrank due to slowdown in the global economy and fall in commodity prices. In 2015, trade balance swang again to surplus due to almost 20 percent fall in imports. In recent years, the biggest trade deficits were recorded with China, Thailand, Japan, Germany and South Korea. Indonesia records trade surpluses mainly with India, United States, and Malaysia. . This page provides the latest reported value for - Indonesia Balance of Trade - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. Indonesia Balance of Trade - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on July of 2019.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
196.00 245.50 4641.92 -2501.90 1960 - 2019 USD Million Monthly




Country Last Previous
Argentina 1373.00 May/19
Australia 5745.00 May/19
Brazil 5020.00 Jun/19
Canada 762.30 May/19
China 509.76 Jun/19
Euro Area 23033.60 May/19
France -3278.00 May/19
Germany 20600.00 May/19
India -15280.00 Jun/19
Indonesia 196.00 Jun/19
Italy 5347.00 May/19
Japan 589.46 Jun/19
Mexico 1030.71 May/19
Netherlands 5579.00 May/19
Russia 11823.00 May/19
Saudi Arabia 131636.00 Mar/19
Singapore 2447.29 Jun/19
South Africa 1737.21 May/19
South Korea 4168.00 Jun/19
Spain -1605300.00 Apr/19
Switzerland 3251.00 Jun/19
Turkey -1837.83 May/19
United Kingdom -2324.00 May/19
United States -55520.00 May/19


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