The IHS Markit Indonesia Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.5 in December 2019 from 48.2 in the previous month, pointing to the second straight month of contraction in the sector. The latest survey data showed tentative signs of improved demand conditions at the end of the year. Inflows of overall new business rose for the first time since July, fueled primarily by domestic demand, as new export orders declined. The upturn in sales was accompanied by the first increase in production volumes for six months, albeit only marginal; while, purchasing activity returned to growth. Meanwhile employment fell for the sixth month in a row on the back of further evidence of capacity, with backlogs of work dropped for the third straight month. On the price front, input costs rose for the first time in three months, while selling prices declined the most in the survey history, Lastly, sentiment strengthened to a six-month high. Manufacturing PMI in Indonesia averaged 50.08 points from 2012 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 58.50 points in August of 2013 and a record low of 46.40 points in March of 2015. source: Markit Economics
Manufacturing PMI in Indonesia is expected to be 49.00 points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Manufacturing PMI in Indonesia to stand at 51.50 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Indonesia Manufacturing PMI is projected to trend around 51.50 points in 2020, according to our econometric models.