Retail sales in Indonesia rose by 9.1 percent year-on-year in February 2019, faster than a 7.2 percent growth in the previous month. This was the steepest increase in retail trade since December 2016, amid Lunar New Year celebrations. Sales growth accelerated for clothing (33.7 percent vs 27.9 percent in January); cultural and recreational goods (26.5 percent vs 21.5 percent); motor vehicles and parts (14 percent vs 9.4 percent); fuel (11.5 percent vs 11.1 percent); and food, beverages and tobacco (10.8 percent vs 8.9 percent). In addition, sales fell much softer for communications equipment and information (-8.7 percent vs -14.2 percent). Meanwhile, sales went up at a slower pace for household equipment (6.2 percent vs 8.2 percent). Retail Sales YoY in Indonesia averaged 9.68 percent from 2006 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 40.30 percent in January of 2010 and a record low of -26.30 percent in November of 2008.
Retail Sales YoY in Indonesia is expected to be 3.60 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in Indonesia to stand at 4.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Indonesia Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 5.10 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.