Retail trade in Indonesia increased 1.3 percent year-on-year in November 2019, following a 3.6 percent gain in the previous month. This was the fifth straight month increase in retail sales, supported by sales of food, beverages & tobacco (4.6 percent vs 6.7 percent in October); household equipment (5.5 percent vs 4.0 percent).Meanwhile, sales dropped further for: fuel (-11.5 percent vs -10.9 percent); cultural & recreational goods (-12.0 percent vs -10.6 percent); clothing (-9.4 percent vs -8.6 percent), and information & communication equipment (-5.2 percent vs -1.6 percent). On a monthly basis, retail sales went up by 0.4 percent in November, the second straight month increase in six months. Retail Sales YoY in Indonesia averaged 9.35 percent from 2006 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 40.30 percent in January of 2010 and a record low of -26.30 percent in November of 2008. source: Bank Indonesia
Retail Sales YoY in Indonesia is expected to be 4.00 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in Indonesia to stand at 5.10 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Indonesia Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 5.10 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.