Retail sales in Indonesia declined by 1.8 percent year-on-year in June 2019, reversing from a 7.7 percent growth in the previous month. This was the first decrease in retail since January last year, as sales dropped for food, beverages and tobacco (-3.4 percent vs 6.4 percent in May); fuel (-10.9 percent vs 0.8 percent) and cultural and recreational goods (-8.8 percent vs 1 percent). In addition, sales growth slowed for clothing (15.8 percent vs 43.9 percent); motor vehicles and parts (20.0 percent vs 25.4 percent); and household equipment (5.4 percent vs 7.0 percent). Meanwhile, sales of communications equipment and information dropped at a softer pace (-8.2 percent vs -9.6 percent). On a monthly basis, retail sales went down 6.5 percent, after increasing 8.9 percent in the previous month. Retail Sales YoY in Indonesia averaged 9.59 percent from 2006 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 40.30 percent in January of 2010 and a record low of -26.30 percent in November of 2008.
Retail Sales YoY in Indonesia is expected to be 2.80 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in Indonesia to stand at 6.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Indonesia Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 5.10 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.