Retail sales in Indonesia increased by 6.7 percent year-on-year in April 2019, slowing from a 10.1 percent growth in the previous month. This was the weakest growth in retail trade since November last year, as sales growth eased for: clothing (22.8 percent vs 41.2 percent in March); food, beverages and tobacco (5.8 percent vs 10.9 percent); and cultural goods (3.6 percent vs 14.5 percent). Meantime, sales growth accelerated for both motor vehicles and parts (25.8 percent vs 20.7 percent) and household equipment (10.5 percent vs 8.2 percent). In addition, sales of communications equipment and information fell faster (-7.9 percent vs -6.3 percent). On the other hand, sales edged down for fuel (-0.1 percent vs 3.9 percent). Retail Sales YoY in Indonesia averaged 9.69 percent from 2006 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 40.30 percent in January of 2010 and a record low of -26.30 percent in November of 2008.
Retail Sales YoY in Indonesia is expected to be 3.60 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in Indonesia to stand at 4.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Indonesia Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 5.10 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.