Ireland - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Ireland including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Ireland economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 2.50 1.5 1.2 -0.8 1 0.8 percent
Unemployment Rate 5.60 5 4.7 4.5 4.5 5 percent
Inflation Rate 0.70 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 2.1 percent
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0.75 percent
Balance of Trade 3428700.00 4000000 4100000 6200000 4900000 3600000 EUR Thousand
Government Debt to GDP 68.00 64 64 60 60 58 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 1.17
 1.16 1.15 1.15 1.14 1.12
Stock Market 6723.96
points		 6742 6681 6620 6561 6328
Government Bond 10Y 0.99
percent		 0.95 1.01 1.06 1.12 1.4
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 2.50
percent		 1.5 1.2 -0.8 1 0.8
GDP Annual Growth Rate 9.00
percent		 5.1 4.4 4.2 3.8 2.9
GDP 333.73
USD Billion		 340 340 360 360 390
GDP Constant Prices 78200.00
EUR Million		 76570 79952 79460 81172 85314
Gross National Product 59578.00
EUR Million		 63705 64987 61679 61842 69346
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 15204.00
EUR Million		 14108 16608 16068 15782 17722
GDP per capita 74433.46
USD		 76800 76800 79000 79000 82000
GDP per capita PPP 67335.29
USD		 72600 72600 73100 73100 74800
GDP From Agriculture 608.00
EUR Million		 693 673 655 631 719
GDP From Construction 1957.00
EUR Million		 1880 1991 1977 2031 2124
GDP From Manufacturing 24736.00
EUR Million		 25632 27080 24474 25676 28897
GDP From Public Administration 7768.00
EUR Million		 7802 8037 8182 8063 8576
GDP From Transport 8828.00
EUR Million		 8637 8897 8853 9163 9494
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.60
percent		 5 4.7 4.5 4.5 5
Employed Persons 2256.50
Thousand 		2300 2350 2400 2450 2500
Unemployed Persons 144.30
Thousand 		134 132 136 138 141
Unemployment Change -9287.00
Persons		 1500 2280 -2640 4750 1040
Part Time Employment 456.80
Thousand		 455 460 465 470 480
Full Time Employment 1805.30
Thousand		 1920 1970 2020 2030 2150
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.20
percent		 62.6 62.8 63 63.4 64.5
Long Term Unemployment Rate 2.10
percent		 2.7 2.7 2.9 3 3.2
Youth Unemployment Rate 13.90
percent		 11 10.5 10.1 9.5 11
Labour Costs 77.70
Index Points		 85 85 82 86 92
Minimum Wages 1613.95
EUR/Month		 1614 1614 1660 1660 1720
Wages in Manufacturing 866.14
EUR/Week		 840 875 895 855 895
Population 4.84
Million		 4.84 4.84 4.88 4.88 4.94
Retirement Age Women 66.00
 66 66 66 66 66
Retirement Age Men 66.00
 66 66 66 66 66
Initial Jobless Claims 39496.00
Persons		 36200 32800 33200 32600 30200
Productivity 134.40
Index Points		 168 170 172 174 180
Wages 744.08
EUR/Week		 725 744 751 738 781
Average Hourly Earnings 22.89
EUR		 23.2 23.6 24.2 24.5 26.6
Employment Change 0.70
percent		 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4
Employment Rate 68.50
percent		 69 69.1 69.4 69.2 68.6
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 0.70
percent		 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 2.1
Inflation Rate Mom 0.30
percent		 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6
Harmonised Consumer Prices 101.70
Index Points		 101 101 102 102 104
Consumer Price Index CPI 102.10
Index Points		 102 101 102 103 105
Core Consumer Prices 101.60
Index Points		 101 101 102 102 104
Core Inflation Rate -0.20
percent		 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.9
GDP Deflator 102.70
Index Points		 101 102 103 103 109
Producer Prices 100.00
Index Points		 98.8 105 102 103 109
Export Prices 95.50
Index Points		 91 92 92 95 101
Import Prices 98.50
Index Points		 96 98 100 101 106
Producer Prices Change -0.80
percent		 -0.2 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.7
CPI Housing Utilities 107.90
Index Points		 103 105 106 107 108
CPI Transportation 106.00
Index Points		 102 102 104 105 106
Food Inflation -2.60
percent		 -1.6 -1 0.5 1.1 1.7
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 0.00
percent		 0 0 0 0 0.75
Interbank Rate -0.32
percent		 -0.32 -0.32 -0.32 -0.32 0.43
Money Supply M1 166894.00
EUR Million		 163000 165000 167000 169000 201000
Money Supply M2 209590.00
EUR Million		 208000 209000 211000 213000 221000
Money Supply M3 228344.00
EUR Million		 230000 234000 238000 241000 259000
Foreign Exchange Reserves 3866.80
EUR Million		 3729 3860 3734 3733 4880
Loans to Private Sector 40562.00
EUR Million		 46100 48200 49900 51800 65600
Private Debt to GDP 406.71
percent		 382 382 365 365 341
Central Bank Balance Sheet 102945.00
EUR Million		 104600 107500 109500 111200 122500
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade 3428700.00
EUR Thousand		 4000000 4100000 6200000 4900000 3600000
Exports 11021230.00
EUR Thousand		 10900000 11200000 13600000 12700000 12500000
Imports 7592503.00
EUR Thousand		 6900000 7100000 7400000 7800000 8900000
Current Account 10162.00
EUR Million		 -1200 5850 4850 5400 3560
Current Account to GDP 12.50
percent		 3.1 3.1 2.8 2.8 2.6
External Debt 2260705.00
EUR Million		 2420000 2510000 2560000 2590000 2740000
Terms of Trade 97.00
Index Points		 94.79 93.88 92 94.06 95.28
Capital Flows 13240.00
EUR Million		 2100 -4000 1750 -2200 -2100
Tourist Arrivals 2951.90
Thousand		 3200 2850 2020 4980 3600
Gold Reserves 6.00
Tonnes		 6 6 6 6 6
Terrorism Index 3.14
 3.14 3.14 3.14 3.14 3.14
Weapons Sales 13.00
USD Million		 28.48 32.21 29.89 27.57 26.74
Foreign Direct Investment -22818.00
EUR Million		 9400 7500 9600 21500 4500
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 68.00
percent		 64 64 60 60 58
Government Budget -0.30
percent of GDP		 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.8
Government Budget Value 1477.00
EUR Million		 650 50 -400 1800 350
Government Spending 7462.00
EUR Million		 7448 7660 7678 7746 8174
Government Spending to GDP 26.10
percent		 26 26 26.5 26.5 27.2
Government Revenues 15358.00
EUR Million		 14500 17100 14200 18500 18800
Government Debt 210221.00
EUR Million		 218000 221000 225000 227000 236000
Fiscal Expenditure 15066.00
EUR Million		 13850 17050 14600 16700 18450
Military Expenditure 1096.15
USD Million		 1099 1130 1132 1133 1156
Asylum Applications 235.00
persons		 280 220 160 150 190
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence 21.00
percent		 25 19 5 15 36
Manufacturing PMI 57.50
 57.4 55.2 57 55.9 52.9
Services PMI 58.00
Index Points		 56.9 55.4 55 54.9 53.8
Industrial Production -5.40
percent		 -4 5.1 6.9 5.1 3
Industrial Production Mom -2.90
percent		 0.7 -0.2 1.5 -0.4 0.8
Manufacturing Production -5.90
percent		 -3.8 4.9 6.5 5.8 2.8
Changes in Inventories 926.00
EUR Million		 230 507 -420 700 340
Car Registrations 7681.00
 5100 750 18100 4700 950
Internet Speed 15614.31
KBps		 15680 15462 15674 15480 15477
IP Addresses 1663376.00
IP		 1606253 1612867 1620086 1618190 1617368
Mining Production 9.60
percent		 3.8 3.6 3 2.8 2.6
Competitiveness Index 5.16
Points		 5.16 5.16 5.22 5.22 5.26
Competitiveness Rank 24.00
 24 24 23 23 22
Ease of Doing Business 17.00
 16 16 15 15 14
Electricity Production 2408.00
Gigawatt-hour		 2400 2500 2600 2500 2600
Corruption Index 74.00
Points		 75 75 76 76 77
Corruption Rank 19.00
 18 18 17 17 16
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 102.40
Index Points		 105 102 95 101 103
Retail Sales MoM 6.50
percent		 -0.4 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.5
Retail Sales YoY 5.50
percent		 2.9 3.2 3.4 3.6 2.5
Consumer Spending 25411.00
EUR Million		 25479 26127 26076 26377 27880
Disposable Personal Income 233013.00
EUR Million		 236000 236000 251000 251000 265000
Personal Savings 9.70
percent		 9.1 8.5 7.8 7.6 7.2
Private Sector Credit 170734.00
EUR Million		 183000 186000 189000 195000 229000
Bank Lending Rate 1.00
percent		 1 1 1 1 1.75
Consumer Credit 12976.00
EUR Million		 13600 13800 14000 14200 16900
Gasoline Prices 1.68
USD/Liter		 1.71 1.62 1.53 1.44 1.14
Households Debt To Gdp 47.50
percent of GDP		 47.5 47.5 46.4 46.4 45
Households Debt To Income 147.13
percent		 141 141 134 134 125
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Housing Index 106.40
Index Points		 106 108 110 112 125
New Home Sales 814.00
dwellings		 700 720 740 720 800
Building Permits 1639.00
 1800 1700 1550 1650 2200
Construction Output 13.90
percent		 10.5 8.9 7.5 6.8 4
Construction Pmi 58.30
 57.5 55.9 55.1 54.9 52.9
Existing Home Sales 3290.00
dwellings		 3340 3380 3420 3600 3580
Home Ownership Rate 69.80
percent		 70.7 70.7 71 71 71.2
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 12.50
percent		 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.5
Personal Income Tax Rate 48.00
percent		 48 48 48 48 48
Sales Tax Rate 23.00
percent		 23 23 23 23 23
Social Security Rate 14.75
percent		 14.75 14.75 14.75 14.75 14.75
Social Security Rate For Companies 10.75
percent		 10.75 10.75 10.75 10.75 10.75
Social Security Rate For Employees 4.00
percent		 4 4 4 4 4
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Temperature 7.77
celsius		 14.13 7.36 5.52 11.09 9.65
Precipitation 272.63
mm		 90.18 117 96.02 98.45 96.08