Italy's manufacturing confidence index fell to 104.4 in November 2018 from 104.9 in the previous month and slightly above market expectations of 104.1. This was the lowest reading since December 2016 mainly due to a decline in expectations for future production (9.0 vs 10.3 in October). In addition, there was a deterioration in both orders level (-7.2 vs -7.1) and inventories (3.9 vs 4.0). Italy's composite business morale index, combining surveys of the manufacturing, retail, construction and services sectors, dropped to 101.1 in November, also the lowest since December 2016, from a revised 102.5 in October. Business Confidence in Italy averaged 102.30 Index Points from 1991 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 121.52 Index Points in February of 1995 and a record low of 71.50 Index Points in March of 2009.
Business Confidence in Italy is expected to be 102.50 Index Points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Business Confidence in Italy to stand at 106.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Italy Business Confidence is projected to trend around 106.00 Index Points in 2020, according to our econometric models.