This page has economic forecasts for Italy including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Italy economy.


Overview Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.00 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 percent
Unemployment Rate 10.10 10.3 10.1 9.9 9.7 8.8 percent
Inflation Rate 1.60 1.6 1.7 1.9 2 2.3 percent
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0.25 0.75 percent
Balance of Trade 1274.37 5100 6800 1800 4400 5400 EUR Million
Government Debt to GDP 131.80 129 126 126 126 124 percent
MARKETS Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Currency 1.14
1.15 1.14 1.13 1.13 1.1
Stock Market 18878.31
points
20332 20058 19786 19520 18487
Government Bond 10Y 3.49
percent
3.27 3.39 3.51 3.64 4.19
GDP Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.00
percent
0.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5
GDP Annual Growth Rate 0.80
percent
1 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.8
GDP 1934.80
USD Billion
2060 2120 2120 2120 2240
GDP Constant Prices 404509.00
EUR Million
406453 408872 410489 410981 419976
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 74445.00
EUR Million
73931 73311 75562 75636 76391
GDP per capita 34877.83
USD
35100 35600 35600 35600 36000
GDP per capita PPP 35220.08
USD
35600 36000 36000 36000 36400
GDP From Agriculture 7057.00
EUR Million
6955 7251 7163 7170 7186
GDP From Construction 16278.00
EUR Million
16409 16452 16522 16538 16955
GDP From Manufacturing 69300.00
EUR Million
69970 70020 70340 70409 72298
GDP From Services 271930.00
EUR Million
273171 274873 276009 276281 282259
LABOUR Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 10.10
percent
10.3 10.1 9.9 9.7 8.8
Employed Persons 23307.66
Thousand
23900 24100 24400 24700 25900
Unemployed Persons 2612.81
Thousand
2650 2620 2600 2580 2500
Part Time Employment 35331.72
Hundreds Person
39000 39400 39800 40900 43000
Full Time Employment 141063.95
Hundreds Person
146000 146700 147200 147600 149000
Employment Rate 58.80
percent
58.4 58.5 58.6 58.8 59
Labor Force Participation Rate 65.50
percent
66.2 66.4 66.5 66.4 66.5
Long Term Unemployment Rate 6.40
percent
5.5 5.2 5 4.9 4.5
Youth Unemployment Rate 31.60
percent
30.2 29.8 29.5 28.9 27
Labour Costs 107.00
Index Points
107 107 108 109 112
Wages 2434.00
EUR/Month
2450 2459 2459 2459 2475
Wage Growth 1.90
percent
1.5 1.5 1.6 1.9 1.9
Wages in Manufacturing 113.50
Index Points
114 114 115 115 120
Population 60.48
Million
60.48 60.21 60.21 60.21 60.02
Retirement Age Women 65.58
66.58 66 65.58 64 66
Retirement Age Men 66.58
66.58 67 67 66.58 67
Wages High Skilled 2340.00
EUR/Month
2430 2440 2440 2440 2560
Wages Low Skilled 1130.00
EUR/Month
1290 1410 1410 1410 1480
Living Wage Family 1440.00
EUR/Month
1450 1550 1550 1550 1650
Living Wage Individual 935.00
EUR/Month
900 1020 1020 1020 1120
Employment Change 0.50
percent
0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6
PRICES Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Inflation Rate 1.60
percent
1.6 1.7 1.9 2 2.3
Inflation Rate Mom 0.00
percent
0.5 0.4 0.5 0.07 0.4
Harmonised Consumer Prices 103.70
Index Points
104 104 105 106 108
Consumer Price Index CPI 102.60
Index Points
103 104 104 105 107
Core Consumer Prices 101.80
Index Points
102 103 104 104 106
Core Inflation Rate 0.70
percent
1.1 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.8
GDP Deflator 109.02
Index Points
112 112 113 114 117
Producer Prices 105.00
Index Points
105 105 105 107 110
Producer Prices Change 4.70
percent
3.7 2.9 2.5 2.3 2.2
Export Prices 109.10
Index Points
109 109 110 110 112
Import Prices 109.40
Index Points
110 111 112 112 115
Food Inflation 0.70
percent
2.2 2 2.1 2.3 2.3
CPI Housing Utilities 105.20
Index Points
102 104 102 105 107
CPI Transportation 105.60
Index Points
105 105 108 108 109
MONEY Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Interest Rate 0.00
percent
0 0 0 0.25 0.75
Interbank Rate -0.32
percent
-0.32 -0.32 -0.32 -0.07 0.43
Money Supply M1 1178020.00
EUR Million
1290000 1320000 1340000 1360000 1510000
Money Supply M2 1546444.00
EUR Million
1740000 1780000 1810000 1830000 2010000
Money Supply M3 1553567.00
EUR Million
1780000 1820000 1850000 1870000 2050000
Banks Balance Sheet 3740972.61
EUR Million
3980000 4050000 4080000 4110000 4290000
Foreign Exchange Reserves 128590.00
EUR Million
128161 128265 128266 128264 128264
Loans to Private Sector 694968.00
EUR Million
725000 765000 795000 815000 901000
Private Debt to GDP 168.90
percent
170 168 168 168 166
Central Bank Balance Sheet 971603.50
EUR Million
995000 1122000 1152000 1201000 1341000
TRADE Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Balance of Trade 1274.37
EUR Million
5100 6800 1800 4400 5400
Exports 36915.52
EUR Million
37200 45500 38900 41500 42900
Imports 35641.16
EUR Million
32100 38700 37100 37100 37500
Current Account 4994.00
EUR Million
5760 2720 4750 3870 2510
Current Account to GDP 2.80
percent
2 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.1
External Debt 2138556.00
EUR Million
2210000 2230000 2260000 2290000 2370000
Terms of Trade 99.70
Index Points
99.09 98.2 98.21 98.21 97.39
Capital Flows 6172.00
EUR Million
5780 1820 6510 5250 5210
Remittances 141.61
EUR Million
164 169 165 165 155
Gold Reserves 2451.80
Tonnes
2452 2452 2452 2452 2452
Terrorism Index 2.75
2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75
Tourism Revenues 6037.83
EUR Million
2300 2500 4500 4700 2500
Weapons Sales 660.00
USD Million
694 695 696 698 694
Crude Oil Production 80.00
BBL/D/1K
101 101 101 101 103
Foreign Direct Investment 1848.00
EUR Million
960 -1220 2900 -600 470
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 131.80
percent
129 126 126 126 124
Government Budget -2.30
percent of GDP
-1.5 -1.2 -1.2 -1.2 -0.5
Government Budget Value -33.82
EUR Billion
-6.8 -10 4.6 3.8 -4.9
Government Spending 78678.70
EUR Million
79401 79646 79859 79938 82043
Government Spending to GDP 48.90
percent
48 47 47 47 46
Government Revenues 29.59
EUR Billion
98.2 37.6 49.8 38.2 105
Government Debt 2331254.00
EUR Million
2398000 2408000 2421000 2439000 2514000
Fiscal Expenditure 63.41
EUR Billion
105 47.6 45.2 34.4 110
Military Expenditure 28416.60
USD Million
29368 29755 30143 30531 32354
Asylum Applications 4810.00
persons
7270 10500 9950 8700 6820
BUSINESS Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Business Confidence 104.90
Index Points
108 108 108 107 108
Services PMI 49.20
Index Points
52.9 50.8 54.5 54.2 54.4
Manufacturing PMI 49.20
50.2 47.6 50.7 51.1 54.1
Industrial Production 1.30
percent
2.5 3.2 3 2.6 2.2
Industrial Production Mom -0.20
percent
-0.1 0.4 -0.3 0.4 0.2
Manufacturing Production 1.00
percent
3.6 3.2 3 2.8 2.5
Capacity Utilization 77.90
percent
79.5 79.4 79.4 79.2 78.6
Factory Orders -2.90
percent
1.1 2.5 0.9 -1 0.7
New Orders 108.40
Index Points
115 125 121 112 119
Changes in Inventories 157.50
EUR Million
1155 1211 1141 1151 713
Zew Economic Sentiment Index -49.00
-12 -22 -8 11 18.1
Car Registrations 146655.00
121000 217000 199000 177000 129000
Internet Speed 9210.65
KBps
10038 10132 10161 10228 10561
IP Addresses 13315518.00
IP
13479313 13478577 13478435 13478492 13478686
Steel Production 2176.00
Thousand Tonnes
1600 2250 2020 2060 1560
Mining Production -11.20
percent
4.4 3.6 2.9 2.2 2
Bankruptcies 2949.00
Companies
3800 2900 2900 2400 3400
Competitiveness Index 70.77
Points
71.27 71.27 71.27 71.27 73.77
Competitiveness Rank 31.00
31 31 31 31 31
Composite Pmi 49.30
52.5 50.4 53.7 54 54
Ease of Doing Business 51.00
45 44 44 44 43
Electricity Production 24984.00
Gigawatt-hour
25800 26200 24200 24300 24500
Corruption Index 50.00
Points
50 50 50 50 50
Corruption Rank 54.00
54 54 54 54 54
CONSUMER Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 116.60
Index Points
114 114 114 113 111
Retail Sales MoM -0.80
percent
0.3 -0.4 -0.3 0.6 0.4
Retail Sales YoY -2.50
percent
1.5 1.9 2 1.9 2.1
Consumer Spending 242524.60
EUR Million
243568 245487 246162 246405 251671
Disposable Personal Income 296399.00
EUR Million
298000 302000 304000 306000 316000
Personal Savings 8.60
percent
6.8 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.2
Bank Lending Rate 1.96
percent
1.95 1.95 1.95 2.2 2.7
Consumer Credit 100349.28
EUR Million
111000 115100 120200 125100 145000
Gasoline Prices 1.99
USD/Liter
1.96 1.92 1.89 1.85 1.72
Households Debt To GDP 41.00
percent of GDP
38.4 36.7 36.7 36.7 34.3
Households Debt To Income 61.12
percent
57.4 55.2 55.2 55.2 53.2
HOUSING Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Construction Output 0.60
percent
2.5 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.2
Housing Index 99.40
Index Points
102 103 104 105 108
Construction Pmi 55.90
50.9 51.5 52 52.5 52.6
Home Ownership Rate 72.40
percent
71.8 71.5 71.5 71.5 71
TAXES Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 24.00
percent
24 24 24 24 24
Personal Income Tax Rate 43.00
percent
43 43 43 43 43
Sales Tax Rate 22.00
percent
22 25 25 25 25
Social Security Rate 39.49
percent
39.49 39.49 39.49 39.49 39.49
Social Security Rate For Companies 30.00
percent
30 30 30 30 30
Social Security Rate For Employees 9.49
percent
9.49 9.49 9.49 9.49 9.49
CLIMATE Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Precipitation 11.32
mm
100 72.3 76.4 76.4 79.73
Temperature 6.69
celsius
9.4 5.65 18.36 14.7 13.05



Italy - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook