Italy's economy shrank 0.1 percent on quarter in the last three months of 2018, the same as in the previous period and slightly above the 0.2 percent contraction previously estimated. Still, it was the second straight quarter of GDP decline, throwing the country into recession for the third time in a decade. GDP Growth Rate in Italy averaged 0.59 percent from 1960 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 6 percent in the first quarter of 1970 and a record low of -2.70 percent in the first quarter of 2009.

GDP Growth Rate in Italy is expected to be -0.10 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate GDP Growth Rate in Italy to stand at 0.20 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Italy GDP Growth Rate is projected to trend around 0.60 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.

Italy GDP Growth Rate
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Forecast Data Chart
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Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2018-10-30 09:00 AM GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv 0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
2018-11-30 11:00 AM GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final -0.1% 0.2% 0% 0%
2019-01-31 10:00 AM GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv -0.2% -0.1% -0.1% 0.1%
2019-03-05 09:00 AM GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final -0.1% -0.1% -0.2% -0.2%
2019-04-30 10:00 AM GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv -0.1% -0.1%
2019-05-31 08:00 AM GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final -0.1% -0.1%
2019-07-31 10:00 AM GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv 0.2%



Italian Economic Recession Confirmed in Q4

Italy's economy shrank 0.1 percent on quarter in the last three months of 2018, the same as in the previous period and slightly above the 0.2 percent contraction previously estimated. Still, it was the second straight quarter of GDP decline, throwing the country into recession for the third time in a decade.

From the expenditure side, the largest contribution to the GDP contraction came from inventory changes, which subtracted 0.4 percentage points to growth. By contrast, positive contribtions came from net exports (0.2 percentage points), consumer spending (0.1 percentage points) and fixed investment (0.1 percentage points) while government spending was neutral.

Exports increased 1.3 percent in the fourth quarter (vs 1 percent in Q3) and imports rose at a slower 0.7 percent (vs 0.4 percent in Q3). In addition, household consumption advanced 0.1 percent, after being unchanged in the previous period; and fixed investment grew 0.3 percent, following a 1.3 percent fall in Q3, driven by spending on transport equipment (1.2 percent vs -2.7 percent) and plants, machinery and armaments (0.9 percent vs -3.7 percent) and residential construction (0.1 percent vs 0.7 percent). On the other hand, government expenditure declined 0.1 percent, the same pace as in the third quarter.

From the production side, services activity increased 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter, reversing a 0.2 percent drop in the previous period. Growth was recorded within three of the seven sub-sectors of the services industries: professional and support activities (0.5 percent vs -1.2 percent); trade, transport and accommodation (0.2 percent vs unchanged); and real estate activities (0.2 percent vs 0.3 percent). Meanwhile, output was unchanged for financial and insurance activities (vs -0.1 percent in Q3); public administration, defense, education, health (vs 0.1 percent in Q3); and other service activities (vs 0.1 percent in Q3); while a contraction was seen in information and communication services (-1.5 percent, the same as in Q3). Industrial output decreased 0.5 percent (vs -0.2 percent in Q3), as manufacturing shrank 0.5 percent (vs -0.3 percent in Q3) and construction output contracted 0.4 percent (vs 0.6 percent in Q3). Agriculture output fell 1.1 percent, following a 0.7 percent decline in the third quarter.

Year-on-year, the economy stalled in the fourth quarter, compared to a preliminary 0.1 percent growth and below the third-quarter expansion of 0.6 percent. It was the weakest economic performance since the third quarter of 2014.


Istat | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com
3/5/2019 10:00:47 AM



Italy GDP Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
GDP Growth Rate -0.10 -0.10 6.00 -2.70 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 0.00 0.60 10.30 -7.20 percent [+]
GDP 1934.80 1859.38 2390.73 40.39 USD Billion [+]
GDP Constant Prices 402822.50 403273.80 425552.00 294839.30 EUR Million [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 74203.10 73979.60 93562.20 52865.10 EUR Million [+]
GDP per capita 34877.83 34318.50 38236.80 10867.70 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 35220.08 34655.26 38612.01 31141.90 USD [+]
GDP From Agriculture 6995.70 7071.30 7937.20 6494.70 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Construction 16386.60 16448.30 24477.10 15830.20 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 70222.70 70590.40 78895.40 61823.30 EUR Million [+]
GDP From Services 271485.00 271318.00 272080.50 224998.40 EUR Million [+]


Italy GDP Growth Rate

Italy is the ninth largest economy in the world and the third largest in the Euro Zone. The country has a diversified industrial base driven in large part by manufacturing of high-quality consumer goods. Composition of the GDP on the expenditure side: household consumption (61 percent), government expenditure (19 percent) and gross fixed capital formation (17 percent). Exports of goods and services account for 30 percent of GDP while imports for 27 percent, adding 3 percent to total GDP. This page provides - Italy GDP Growth Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news. Italy GDP Growth Rate - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on March of 2019.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
-0.10 -0.10 6.00 -2.70 1960 - 2018 percent Quarterly
SA




Country Last Previous
United States 2.60 Dec/18
Saudi Arabia 1.60 Sep/18
China 1.50 Dec/18
India 1.50 Sep/18
Singapore 1.40 Dec/18
South Africa 1.40 Dec/18
South Korea 1.00 Dec/18
Spain 0.70 Dec/18
Japan 0.50 Dec/18
Netherlands 0.50 Dec/18
France 0.30 Dec/18
Russia 0.30 Sep/18
Australia 0.20 Dec/18
Euro Area 0.20 Dec/18
Mexico 0.20 Dec/18
Switzerland 0.20 Dec/18
United Kingdom 0.20 Dec/18
Brazil 0.10 Dec/18
Canada 0.10 Dec/18
Germany 0.00 Dec/18
Italy -0.10 Dec/18
Argentina -1.20 Dec/18
Indonesia -1.69 Dec/18
Turkey -2.40 Dec/18


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