The Bank of Japan's Tankan index for big manufacturers' sentiment plunged to an eleven-year low of -34 in the second quarter of 2020, worse than market consensus of -31, as the coronavirus pandemic hit activity and global demand. Sentiment deteriorated the most among firms producing motor vehicles (-72 vs -17 in Q1), lumber & wood products (-53 vs 0), iron & steel (-58 vs -15), pulp & paper (-33 vs 4), general-purpose machinery (-26 vs 0), production machinery (-37 vs 0), electrical machinery (-28 vs -3), business-oriented machinery (-29 vs -6) and shipbuilding (-46 vs -29). Big firms plan to raise their capital spending by 3.2 percent, up from 1.8 percent in the previous quarter and above a 2.1 percent expected by consensus. Among non-manufacturing large firms, sentiment tumbled to a 10-1/2-year low of -17, and compared with expectations of -18.

Business Confidence in Japan averaged 1.23 points from 1983 until 2020, reaching an all time high of 53 points in the second quarter of 1989 and a record low of -58 points in the first quarter of 2009. This page provides - Japan Business Confidence - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news. Japan Business Confidence - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on July of 2020. source: Bank of Japan

Business Confidence in Japan is expected to be -34.00 points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Business Confidence in Japan to stand at -12.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Japan Business Confidence is projected to trend around 5.00 points in 2021 and -6.00 points in 2022, according to our econometric models.

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Japan Business Confidence

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
-34.00 -8.00 53.00 -58.00 1983 - 2020 points Quarterly


Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2019-09-30 11:50 PM Q3 5 7 2 1
2019-12-12 11:50 PM Q4 0 5 2 2
2020-03-31 11:50 PM Q1 -8 0 -10 -12
2020-06-30 11:50 PM Q2 -34 -8 -31 -34
2020-09-30 11:50 PM Q3 -34 -27
2020-12-13 11:50 PM Q4 -8


News Stream
Japan Q2 Business Morale Weakest in 11 Years
The Bank of Japan's Tankan index for big manufacturers' sentiment plunged to an eleven-year low of -34 in the second quarter of 2020, worse than market consensus of -31, as the coronavirus pandemic hit activity and global demand. Sentiment deteriorated the most among firms producing motor vehicles (-72 vs -17 in Q1), lumber & wood products (-53 vs 0), iron & steel (-58 vs -15), pulp & paper (-33 vs 4), general-purpose machinery (-26 vs 0), production machinery (-37 vs 0), electrical machinery (-28 vs -3), business-oriented machinery (-29 vs -6) and shipbuilding (-46 vs -29). Big firms plan to raise their capital spending by 3.2 percent, up from 1.8 percent in the previous quarter and above a 2.1 percent expected by consensus. Among non-manufacturing large firms, sentiment tumbled to a 10-1/2-year low of -17, and compared with expectations of -18.
2020-07-01
Japan Business Confidence Drops to 7-Year Low
The Bank of Japan's Tankan index for big manufacturers' sentiment fell to a seven-year low of -8 in the first quarter of 2020 from 0 in the prior period, but still came above market expectations of -10. Sentiment deteriorated particularly among firms in shipbuilding (-29 vs -7 in Q4), non-ferrous metals (-26 vs -15), and petroleum & coal products (-18 vs -12). In contrast, sentiment in food & beverages remained positive, but declined to 5 nonetheless (vs 10 in Q4). Big firms plan to raise their capital spending by 1.8 percent, down from 6.8 percent in the previous quarter but above a 1.1 percent expected decline by consensus. Among non-manufacturing large firms, sentiment eased sharply to 8 from 20 in Q4, also above market expectations of 6.
2020-04-01
Japan Q4 Business Morale Falls to Over 6-Year Low
The Bank of Japan's Tankan index for big manufacturers' sentiment fell to over six-year low of 0 in the fourth quarter of 2019 from 5 in the prior period and missing market expectations of 2. Sentiment deteriorated among enterprises producing: business oriented machinery (0 vs 16 in Q3), motor vehicles (-11 vs 2), iron & steel (-2 vs 7), production machinery (4 vs 11), processed metals (-14 vs -8), shipbuilding & heavy machinery (-7 vs 0), textiles (3 vs 9), and chemicals (2 vs 5). In contrast, sentiment rose among firms producing pulp & paper (11 vs 0), petroleum & coal products (-12 vs -18), nonferrous metals (-15 vs -18), and food & beverages (10 vs 7). Meanwhile, big firms plan to raise their capital spending by 6.8 percent, above estimates of 6 percent. Among non-manufacturing large firms, sentiment eased to 20 from 21 in Q3, but beating forecasts of 16.
2019-12-13
Japan Business Sentiment Falls to 6-Year Low
The Bank of Japan's Tankan index for big manufacturers' sentiment fell to a six-year low of 5 in the third quarter of 2019 from 7 in the prior period and compared to market expectations of 2. Sentiment deteriorated among enterprises producing: petroleum & coal products (-18 vs 12 in Q2); non-ferrous metals (-18 vs 0); general-purpose machinery (15 vs 23); production machinery (11 vs 17); motor vehicles (2 vs 5); shipbuilding & heavy machinery (0 vs 7); chemicals (5 vs 8); ceramics, stone & clay (14 vs 24); iron & steel (7 vs 10); food & beverages (7 vs 9); and textiles (9 vs 11). In contrast, sentiment rose among companies producing lumber & wood products (6 vs 0); business-oriented machinery (16 vs 8); and electrical machinery (5 vs 2). Meanwhile, big firms plan to raise their capital spending by 6.6 percent. Among non-manufacturing large firms, sentiment weakened to 21, but remained above forecasts of 20.
2019-10-01

Japan Business Confidence
In Japan, the quarterly Tankan Index of Sentiment at Large Manufacturers covers about 1,100 companies with capital over 1 billion Yen. The survey is done by mail or e-mail and asks participants to evaluate current trends and conditions in the business place and their respective industries as well as their expected business activities for the next quarter and year. The indicator is calculated by subtracting the percentage share of enterprises responding on the negative side from the share giving positive assessments. The index varies on a scale of -100 to 100 such that a value above zero indicates business optimism, a value below zero pessimism and 0 indicates neutrality.