Exports from Japan fell 2.4% from a year earlier to JPY 6.66 trillion in April 2019, compared to market consensus of a 1.8% drop and after a similar 2.4% fall in March. It was the fifth straight month of falls in shipments, amid weakening global demand and the US-China trade dispute. Shipments were mainly dragged down by electrical machinery (-4.6%), namely semiconductors (-5.7%); machinery (-4.1%), including power generating machines (-3.5%) and semicon machinery (-15.1%); transport equipment (-2.8%) and manufactured goods (-0.7%), of which iron & steel products (-2.5%) and nonferrous metals (-7.1%). In contrast, exports rose for foodstuffs (6.1%); mineral fuels (12.1%) and chemicals (9.1%). Among main trade partners, exports shrank to China (-6.3%), South Korea (-4.2%), Australia (-15.2%) and Indonesia (-2.7%). In contrast, sales rose to the US (9.6%), Malaysia and Thailand (1.4% each) and Vietnam (10.4%). Exports in Japan averaged 3363.55 JPY Billion from 1963 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 7681.69 JPY Billion in March of 2008 and a record low of 105.08 JPY Billion in January of 1963.
Exports in Japan is expected to be 6960.00 JPY Billion by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Exports in Japan to stand at 7000.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Japan Exports is projected to trend around 7050.00 JPY Billion in 2020, according to our econometric models.