Japan - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Japan including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Japan economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.70 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.5 percent
Unemployment Rate 2.50 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.8 percent
Inflation Rate 1.30 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.8 percent
Interest Rate -0.10 -0.1 -0.1 0 0 0.1 percent
Balance of Trade -444.59 385 407 231 377 410 JPY Billion
Government Debt to GDP 253.00 254 254 256 256 258 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 112.56
112 112 113 114 116
Stock Market 23869.93
points
22553 22263 21975 21692 20594
Government Bond 10Y 0.13
percent
0.11 0.12 0.13 0.14 0.21
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.70
percent
0.3 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.5
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.00
percent
1.5 2.1 2 1.9 1.7
GDP Growth Annualized 3.00
percent
1 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.9
GDP 4872.14
USD Billion
4900 4900 5110 5110 5400
GDP Constant Prices 537599.20
JPY Billion
541632 546029 544319 547814 564196
Gross National Product 562569.10
JPY Billion
569306 572629 568181 573258 591682
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 129862.00
JPY Billion
129000 130000 130000 132000 135000
GDP per capita 48556.93
USD
49500 49500 50100 50100 51000
GDP per capita PPP 39002.22
USD
40000 40000 41500 41500 43000
GDP From Agriculture 4272.10
JPY Billion
4336 4362 4358 4353 4507
GDP From Construction 28365.30
JPY Billion
28791 28961 28933 28904 29925
GDP From Manufacturing 107759.60
JPY Billion
109376 110023 109915 109807 113683
GDP From Mining 213.80
JPY Billion
217 218 218 218 226
GDP From Public Administration 26247.90
JPY Billion
26642 26799 26773 26747 27691
GDP From Services 21864.70
JPY Billion
22193 22324 22302 22280 23067
GDP From Transport 24250.60
JPY Billion
24614 24760 24736 24711 25584
GDP From Utilities 8743.10
JPY Billion
8874 8927 8918 8909 9224
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 2.50
percent
2.3 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.8
Employed Persons 66360.00
Thousand
66614 66716 66844 66965 67793
Unemployed Persons 1720.00
Thousand
1671 1661 1650 1640 1600
Part Time Employment 7270.00
Thousand
7290 7328 7370 7411 7823
Full Time Employment 22274.00
Thousand
22141 22100 22117 22120 22119
Employment Rate 60.00
percent
59.6 59.2 61.2 59.5 60.5
Labor Force Participation Rate 61.50
percent
61.3 60.8 61.5 61.5 62.5
Youth Unemployment Rate 3.80
percent
3.72 3.73 3.73 3.73 3.73
Productivity 99.40
Index Points
103 97.97 102 98.06 98.1
Job Vacancies 964.44
Thousand
969 964 961 960 953
Wages 431722.00
JPY/Month
306000 689000 328000 559000 707000
Wages in Manufacturing 600465.00
JPY/Month
342000 825000 356000 578000 846000
Wage Growth 1.50
percent
1.68 1.83 1.97 1.95 1.97
Minimum Wages 848.00
JPY/Hour
848 848 870 870 900
Population 126.71
Million
127 126 127 126 124
Retirement Age Women 62.00
62 62 62 62 63
Retirement Age Men 62.00
62 62 62 62 63
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 1.30
percent
1.1 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.8
Inflation Rate Mom 0.50
percent
0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3
Consumer Price Index CPI 101.60
Index Points
102 103 102 102 106
Core Consumer Prices 101.20
Index Points
101 102 102 102 105
Core Inflation Rate 0.90
percent
0.9 1 1.2 1.3 2
GDP Deflator 104.20
Index Points
102 105 102 105 105
Producer Prices 101.70
Index Points
102 103 103 104 108
Export Prices 97.10
Index Points
97.8 97.6 97.4 97.1 97.4
Import Prices 101.10
Index Points
102 100 100 100 100
Food Inflation 2.10
percent
1.3 1.6 1.7 2.6 1.9
Producer Prices Change 3.00
percent
3 3.2 2.9 2.7 1.8
CPI Housing Utilities 99.60
Index Points
101 101 101 101 104
CPI Transportation 100.10
Index Points
98.88 100 101 101 104
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate -0.10
percent
-0.1 -0.1 0 0 0.1
Interbank Rate -0.04
percent
-0.04 -0.04 0.07 0.07 0.17
Money Supply M0 99977.50
JPY Billion
99100 99093 99085 99085 99086
Money Supply M1 759410.00
JPY Billion
771239 781759 791708 801432 892944
Money Supply M2 1006108.00
JPY Billion
1015087 1023450 1031517 1039438 1117938
Money Supply M3 1337717.80
JPY Billion
1342154 1350873 1359508 1368081 1450699
Central Bank Balance Sheet 550936.30
JPY Billion
552153 564657 576210 587297 684681
Foreign Exchange Reserves 1259300.00
USD Million
1260862 1263012 1264988 1266860 1283214
Loans to Private Sector 458295.10
JPY Billion
456890 456811 456779 456768 456761
Deposit Interest Rate 0.30
percent
0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5
Foreign Stock Investment -1481.70
JPY Billion
-180 -120 -57.65 -57.65 250
Foreign Bond Investment 2312.00
JPY Billion
219 172 172 172 172
Private Debt to GDP 229.40
percent
227 226 227 228 227
Loan Growth 2.20
percent
2.1 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.4
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -444.59
JPY Billion
385 407 231 377 410
Exports 6691.56
JPY Billion
6936 6869 6832 6811 6450
Imports 7136.16
JPY Billion
6551 6412 6600 6434 6040
Current Account 2010.00
JPY Billion
2043 1685 1940 1828 1869
Current Account to GDP 4.02
percent
3.5 3.5 2 2 3.17
External Debt 426882.00
JPY Billion
425969 431289 437044 442752 494648
Terms of Trade 96.00
Index Points
96.35 97.26 97.21 96.71 97.01
Foreign Direct Investment 11334.00
JPY Hundreds Million
12946 12504 12431 12411 12407
Capital Flows -8462.00
JPY HML
21151 5107 42654 12661 12456
Tourism Revenues 17929000.00
JPY Thousand
22696816 19637051 21800078 20258010 20880579
Tourist Arrivals 2577800.00
2512700 2722200 2728600 2732600 2739400
Gold Reserves 765.20
Tonnes
765 765 765 765 765
Terrorism Index 3.60
2.2 2.2 1.5 1.5 1.3
Crude Oil Production 4.00
BBL/D/1K
3.98 3.98 3.98 3.98 3.98
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 253.00
percent
254 254 256 256 258
Government Budget -4.50
percent of GDP
-4.4 -4.4 -4.5 -4.5 -4.4
Government Budget Value -113831.00
JPY HND Million
-54637 -54452 -54475 -54475 -54453
Government Spending 106792.20
JPY Billion
108106 108802 108703 108821 112423
Military Expenditure 46555.98
USD Million
46434 46566 46686 46807 47183
Asylum Applications 1648.00
Persons
1603 1604 1606 1605 1605
Government Spending To Gdp 39.05
percent
39.07 38.99 38.99 38.98 38.95
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence 21.00
Index Points
18 17 21 20 2
Services Pmi 51.50
Index Points
51.3 52.5 52 51.3 50.8
Manufacturing PMI 52.90
52.9 51.9 52 53 51
Industrial Production 2.20
percent
-1.1 3 1.7 0.3 4
Industrial Production Mom -0.20
percent
0.3 0.7 0.5 -0.2 0.1
Manufacturing Production 2.40
percent
1.12 2.5 1.8 1.8 3
Capacity Utilization 99.20
Index Points
102 102 102 102 102
New Orders 1138.84
JPY Billion
1044 1047 1048 1048 1048
Machinery Orders 11.00
percent
3 -0.6 1.7 -1.4 0.2
Changes in Inventories 443.30
JPY Billion
507 560 417 385 446
Bankruptcies 694.00
Companies
693 702 707 706 705
Corporate Profits 26401.12
JPY Billion
22836 24598 22164 26552 25516
Coincident Index 116.30
116 116 115 115 115
Economy Watchers Survey 48.10
47.56 46.89 46.44 46.1 45.15
Car Production 702993.00
Units
729585 688575 826652 794641 694206
Car Registrations 200355.00
278032 229486 253726 273989 234962
Leading Economic Index 103.50
Index Points
102 101 101 101 102
Small Business Sentiment 14.00
15 13 15 12 -4
Internet Speed 20171.96
KBps
22329 22872 23231 23638 27785
IP Addresses 43689566.00
IP
43485442 43485720 43487420 43486465 43487808
Private Investment 12.80
percent
10.61 10.53 9.97 5.91 8.34
Mining Production -10.10
percent
-4.83 -3.36 -2.39 -1.87 -1.32
Non Manufacturing Pmi 24.00
23 24 24 26 21
Steel Production 8419.67
Thousand Tonnes
8312 8513 8562 8510 8510
Cement Production 5196.00
Thousands of Tonnes
4903 4969 4981 4980 4979
Competitiveness Index 5.49
Points
5.49 5.49 5.49 5.49 5.49
Competitiveness Rank 9.00
9 9 9 9 9
Composite Pmi 52.00
51.78 51.55 51.51 51.52 51.53
Ease of Doing Business 34.00
36 36 36 36 39
Corruption Index 73.00
Points
74 74 75 75 73
Corruption Rank 20.00
19 19 19 19 19
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 43.30
Index Points
43.9 44 43.9 43.9 43.9
Retail Sales MoM 0.10
percent
1.2 0.8 0.05 0.05 1.2
Retail Sales YoY 1.50
percent
1.6 -0.9 1.7 2.1 0.9
Household Spending 0.10
percent
-0.39 0.71 -0.64 -0.7 2
Consumer Spending 301316.40
JPY Billion
303255 306096 305186 307041 316281
Disposable Personal Income 485.33
JPY Thousand
362 767 365 610 820
Personal Savings 31.60
percent
11 50 5 42 48
Bank Lending Rate 1.00
percent
1 1 1.1 1.1 1.2
Households Debt To Gdp 57.40
percent of GDP
58.5 58.8 58 57.5 57.6
Consumer Credit 334396.00
JPY Billion
359274 365692 371555 377149 414719
Gasoline Prices 1.36
USD/Liter
1.39 1.31 1.24 1.17 0.92
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Housing Starts -0.70
percent
-2.52 0.6 -1.97 -1.94 1.5
Construction Orders -9.30
percent
-3.35 2.2 -2.7 -2.7 2.2
Housing Index 112.02
Index Points
112 112 115 114 118
Home Ownership Rate 61.70
percent
61.77 61.8 61.82 61.84 62.11
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 30.86
percent
30.86 30.86 30.86 30.86 30.86
Personal Income Tax Rate 55.95
percent
55.95 55.95 56 56 56
Sales Tax Rate 8.00
percent
8 8 8 8 10
Social Security Rate 29.20
percent
29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3
Social Security Rate For Companies 14.75
percent
14.75 14.75 14.75 14.75 14.75
Social Security Rate For Employees 14.45
percent
14.45 14.45 14.45 14.45 14.54
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Temperature 4.06
celsius
22.56 8.85 2.06 19.56 12.24
Precipitation 102.03
mm
202 108 82.4 136 139