Industrial production in Japan declined 0.9 percent month-over-month in March 2019, compared to a 0.7 percent increase in February and market expectations of a 0.1 percent decline, preliminary data showed. Sharp declines were observed in motor vehicles (-3.4 percent vs +3.3 percent in February); production machinery (-6.7 percent vs +5.5 percent); fabricated metals (-4.4 percent vs +3.5 percent) and transport equipment (-3.6 percent vs +2.5 percent). In contrast, production rebounded for electronic parts and devices (+5.8 percent vs -4.9 percent); general-purpose and business oriented machinery (+5.1 percent vs -0.1 percent) and inorganic and organic chemicals (+4.8 percent vs -3.6 percent). On a yearly basis, industrial output fell 4.6 percent in March after a 1.1 percent drop in February. It was the sharpest fall since May 2015. Industrial Production Mom in Japan averaged 0.40 percent from 1953 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 6.80 percent in May of 2011 and a record low of -16.50 percent in March of 2011.
Industrial Production Mom in Japan is expected to be -0.20 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Industrial Production Mom in Japan to stand at -0.30 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Japan Industrial Production MoM is projected to trend around 0.10 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.