The Producer Price Index of Japan declined by 1.1 percent year-on-year in September 2019, following a 0.9 percent fall in the previous month and compared with market expectations of a 1.2 percent decrease. It was the fourth consecutive decline in producer prices and the sharpest since December 2016, amid trade tensions and increasing speculation of a further monetary stimulus. Cost fell further for oil (-11.9 percent vs -9.9 percent in August); chemicals (-4.8 percent vs - 4.7 percent); information & communication (-2.6 percent vs -2.5 percent); and transportation equipment (-0.5 percent vs -0.3 percent). Also, prices slowed for food & beverages (0.7 percent vs 0.8 percent); plastic (0.6 percent vs 0.8 percent); iron & steel (1.2 percent vs 1.4 percent); and ceramic, stone & clay products (2.7 percent vs 2.8 percent). On a monthly basis, producer prices were flat, after dropping 0.3 percent in the prior month. Producer Prices Change in Japan averaged 1.40 percent from 1961 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 33.90 percent in February of 1974 and a record low of -8.60 percent in August of 2009.
Producer Prices Change in Japan is expected to be 2.00 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Producer Prices Change in Japan to stand at 1.50 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Japan Producer Prices Change is projected to trend around 1.80 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.