Japan's retail trade increased by 0.5 percent year-on-year in June 2019, easing from an upwardly revised 1.3 percent gain in the previous month and compared to market expectations of a 0.2 percent advance. Sales rose at a softer pace for both machinery & equipment (5.6 percent vs 5.9 percent in May) and medicine & toiletries (2 percent vs 4.7 percent). In addition, sales declined for general merchandise (-2.6 percent vs -2.2 percent), motor vehicles (-0.9 percent vs 2.2 percent), fuel (-3.9 percent vs 0.3 percent), and others (-0.5 percent vs -1.1 percent). In contrast, sales growth accelerated for fabrics apparel & accessories (4.2 percent vs 4 percent) and food & beverages (1.5 percent vs 1.3 percent). On a monthly basis, retail sales were flat in June, following an upwardly revised 0.4 percent rise in May. Retail Sales YoY in Japan averaged 4.53 percent from 1971 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 36.50 percent in January of 1979 and a record low of -14.30 percent in March of 1998.
Retail Sales YoY in Japan is expected to be 8.00 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in Japan to stand at 2.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Japan Retail Sales is projected to trend around 0.90 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.