Japan's retail sales declined by 2.1 percent year-on-year in November 2019, compared with market expectations of a 1.7 percent drop and after a 7 percent fall in the previous month, as consumer sentiment remained depressed after October's sales tax hike. Decreases were seen in sales of general merchandise (-4.4% vs -13.3% in October), fabrics apparel & accessories (-0.1% vs -5.9%), motor vehicles (-5.9% vs -16.8%), machinery & equipment (-7.8% vs -14.7%), fuel (-7.1% vs -12.7%), and other (-1.8% vs -5.7%). In contrast, sales grew for food & beverages (0.4% vs -1.9%), and medicine & toiletry stores (2.6% vs 0.6%). On a monthly basis, retail sales advanced 4.5 percent in November, compared with forecasts of a 4.6 percent gain and following a revised 14.2 percent fall in October. Retail Sales YoY in Japan averaged 4.49 percent from 1971 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 36.50 percent in January of 1979 and a record low of -14.30 percent in March of 1998. source: Ministry of Economy Trade & Industry (METI)
Retail Sales YoY in Japan is expected to be -4.40 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in Japan to stand at 2.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Japan Retail Sales is projected to trend around 0.90 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.