Kazakhstan - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Kazakhstan including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Kazakhstan economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.80 4.7 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.8 percent
Inflation Rate 5.90 5.6 5.1 4.9 5.2 4.7 percent
Interest Rate 9.00 9 9 8.75 8.5 6.5 percent
Balance of Trade 2368.30 2806 1300 3063 3287 1000 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 17.40 21 21 20 20 18 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 346.56
348 354 359 364 387
Stock Market 2379.18
points
2316 2243 2172 2103 1850
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Annual Growth Rate 4.10
percent
3.4 3.2 3.6 4.2 3.8
GDP 159.41
USD Billion
165 165 205 205 220
GDP Constant Prices 11572.51
KZT Billion
34663 53217 11989 12059 56786
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 2180.00
KZT Billion
7064 11967 2258 2272 12770
GDP per capita 10857.38
USD
10899 10899 10935 10935 11047
GDP per capita PPP 24055.59
USD
24410 24410 24483 24483 24563
Gross National Product 51966817.40
KZT Million
47769660 53629756 53837623 54149424 57226381
Gdp From Agriculture 233697.30
KZT Million
1594883 2376697 242110 243513 2536088
Gdp From Construction 392042.70
KZT Million
1986053 2980050 406156 408508 3179904
Gdp From Manufacturing 1501518.20
KZT Billion
4107766 5997202 1555573 1564582 6399398
Gdp From Mining 1818996.00
KZT Billion
4984675 7144911 1884480 1895394 7624077
Gdp From Public Administration 214115.10
KZT Million
834669 1076559 221823 223108 1148758
Gdp From Services 6448630.70
KZT Million
20025048 30808747 6680781 6719473 32874905
Gdp From Transport 955423.00
KZT Million
2733379 4405361 989818 995551 4700802
Gdp From Utilities 276433.60
KZT Million
639999 901677 286385 288044 962148
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.80
percent
4.7 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.8
Unemployed Persons 434.40
Thousand
435 438 438 436 437
Long Term Unemployment Rate 2.00
percent
2.2 2.11 2.01 2.06 1.97
Wages 163604.00
KZT/Month
158467 167000 170000 157754 184000
Minimum Wages 24459.00
KZT/Monthly
25459 25459 27700 26492 30000
Population 17.92
Million
18.07 18.8 18.18 18.22 19.7
Living Wage Family 113900.00
KZT/Month
115000 115000 118000 113900 118000
Living Wage Individual 83600.00
KZT/Month
83600 83600 83600 83600 83600
Employed Persons 8538.90
Thousand
8635 8700 8585 8651 8900
Wages High Skilled 135100.00
KZT/Month
145100 145100 145100 117578 148100
Wages In Manufacturing 172254.00
KZT/Month
164983 195000 172254 179107 210000
Wages Low Skilled 71900.00
KZT/Month
72700 72700 72700 67136 73700
Youth Unemployment Rate 4.10
percent
4.14 4.17 4.2 4.25 4.3
Retirement Age Men 63.00
63 63 63 63 63
Retirement Age Women 58.00
58 58 58 58 58
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 5.90
percent
5.6 5.1 4.9 5.2 4.7
Consumer Price Index CPI 732.20
Index Points
733 750 762 770 829
Core Inflation Rate 6.37
percent
6.44 6.5 6.46 6.47 5.3
Producer Prices 1091.06
Index Points
1047 1109 1120 1175 1311
Inflation Rate Mom 0.20
percent
0.6 0.8 0.6 0.59 0.5
Import Prices 99.60
Index Points
100 101 100 100 101
GDP Deflator 105.60
Index Points
109 128 105 104 143
Food Inflation 3.80
percent
5.1 5 5 4.75 5.1
Export Prices 99.90
Index Points
101 100 101 101 96
CPI Transportation 109.60
Index Points
116 117 116 115 129
Producer Prices Change 22.20
percent
12.3 9.9 8.3 7.7 7.3
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 9.00
percent
9 9 8.75 8.5 6.5
Money Supply M0 1940652.00
KZT Million
1965836 1966421 1966416 1966415 1966415
Money Supply M1 5044409.00
KZT Million
5096285 5081571 5075241 5075767 5076661
Money Supply M2 13591199.00
KZT Million
13886524 14103966 14316182 14525899 16530728
Money Supply M3 18836925.00
KZT Million
18879592 18904475 18914740 18919313 18923535
Foreign Exchange Reserves 30563.00
USD Million
30481 34054 30623 30627 36154
Banks Balance Sheet 23507207068.00
KZT Thousand
23357116974 27000000000 23337165105 23335840653 31000000000
Interbank Rate 10.00
percent
10 10 9.75 9.5 7.5
Central Bank Balance Sheet 6702883.00
KZT Million
6736845 7580000 6768420 6770420 9080000
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade 2368.30
USD Million
2806 1300 3063 3287 1000
Exports 5008.30
USD Million
5607 5631 5784 5891 5890
Imports 2720.00
USD Million
2801 2689 2721 2604 2510
Current Account -95.20
USD Million
67 125 214 347 586
Current Account to GDP -3.20
percent
-1.8 -1.8 -1 -1 -0.5
External Debt 166645.00
USD Million
167157 166860 166524 166424 165775
Capital Flows -23.50
USD Million
-138 -1795 67.66 -645 -682
Gold Reserves 314.30
Tonnes
320 326 332 336 349
Crude Oil Production 1805.00
BBL/D/1K
1779 1700 1784 1783 1700
Foreign Direct Investment 6681.95
USD Million
5882 3900 5775 5865 4300
Terrorism Index 2.95
3.2 3.58 3.26 2.95 2.37
Remittances 77.00
USD Million
77 81.66 77 81.66 81.66
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 17.40
percent
21 21 20 20 18
Government Budget -2.80
percent of GDP
-1.1 -1.1 -2.95 -2.93 -1.5
Government Budget Value -183533.80
KZT Million
-1028969 -750000 -725365 -725365 -680000
Government Spending 1050768.80
KZT Million
4114227 5928397 1088596 1094901 6325979
Government Revenues 5251640.00
KZT Million
5555348 15000000 5319007 5329962 21000000
Government Debt 17790933.00
USD Thousand
15152200 15829400 19020908 19064736 18505800
Military Expenditure 1183.84
USD Million
1144 3000 1117 1108 3500
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence 9.00
Index Points
10 6 5 11 10
Industrial Production 4.20
percent
4.2 5.9 3.8 4.5 5.7
Industrial Production Mom -0.50
percent
0.6 0.77 0.65 0.68 0.68
Manufacturing Production 3.50
percent
3.71 7.9 4.19 4.29 4.5
Changes in Inventories 461010.00
KZT Million
1371693 2130000 1372908 1372910 2260000
Internet Speed 10581.80
KBps
14319 14614 14975 15222 14824
IP Addresses 1522517.00
IP
1524544 1525390 1526366 1526634 1530076
Leading Economic Index 5.30
percent
4.9 5.5 4.2 3.9 6.5
Competitiveness Index 4.35
Points
4.33 4.48 4.29 4.28 5.1
Competitiveness Rank 57.00
61 50 59 59 47
Car Registrations 3828906.00
3832802 3860000 3833194 3833269 3890000
Cement Production 1142.50
Thousands of Tonnes
655 570 528 768 620
Copper Production 30356.00
Tonnes
33698 38100 33176 33147 42200
Ease of Doing Business 36.00
32 30 31 32 39
Corruption Index 31.00
Points
29 31 28 28 33
Corruption Rank 122.00
123 129 122 122 127
Mining Production 4.80
percent
4.38 7.6 3.71 3.55 3.8
Steel Production 435.00
Thousand Tonnes
399 520 399 399 570
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 81.00
Index Points
80.42 85 79.47 79.41 90
Retail Sales Mom 4.70
percent
3.48 0.17 1.69 1.54 1.6
Retail Sales Yoy 6.70
percent
3.1 6.3 3.8 4.1 6
Consumer Spending 5792503.20
KZT Million
17646908 27697633 6001033 6035788 29555147
Consumer Credit 4744183.00
KZT Million
4977501 4127175 5201218 5274849 4262094
Gasoline Prices 0.52
USD/Liter
0.49 0.46 0.44 0.41 0.23
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Housing Index 102.90
Index Points
104 104 104 104 110
Construction Output 3.10
percent
9.53 8 6.39 5.46 10.1
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00
percent
20 20 20 20 20
Personal Income Tax Rate 10.00
percent
10 10 10 10 10
Sales Tax Rate 12.00
percent
12 12 12 12 12
Social Security Rate 11.00
percent
11 11 10.75 10 31
Social Security Rate For Companies 11.00
percent
12.68 31 10.58 9.89 31
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Precipitation 37.87
mm
21.44 20.96 16.84 21.5 21.49
Temperature -3.30
celsius
19.48 -2.8 -10.24 13.91 5.34