Lebanon - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Lebanon including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Lebanon economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 6.70 6.55 6.7 6.6 6.6 6.7 percent
Inflation Rate 6.52 4.8 4.5 4.5 4.3 3.5 percent
Interest Rate 10.00 10 8 8 10 8 percent
Balance of Trade -1337.07 -1635 -1646 -1645 -1645 -1645 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 148.00 145 145 143 143 142 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 1505.50
1514 1524 1534 1543 1582
Stock Market 1032.75
points
1020 1001 982 964 894
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.00
percent
2.7 2.7 3 1.2 1
GDP 51.84
USD Billion
52.9 52.9 54.2 54.2 58.9
GDP Constant Prices 64054700.00
LBP Million
65784177 65784177 65976341 64823356 68634605
GDP per capita 7197.60
USD
7234 7234 7400 7400 7522
GDP per capita PPP 13367.60
USD
13487 13487 13606 13606 14063
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 15643600.00
LBP Million
15085219 15286843 15397042 15507241 15675081
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 6.70
percent
6.55 6.7 6.6 6.6 6.7
Population 6.09
Million
6.13 6.14 6.15 6.16 6.27
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 6.52
percent
4.8 4.5 4.5 4.3 3.5
Consumer Price Index CPI 106.22
Index Points
106 109 110 110 117
Inflation Rate Mom 0.63
percent
0.53 0.51 0.53 0.52 0.52
Food Inflation 5.97
percent
5.98 6.01 6.02 6.02 6.02
CPI Housing Utilities 104.45
Index Points
105 108 108 109 116
CPI Transportation 98.04
Index Points
94.93 96.24 99.24 98.54 104
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 10.00
percent
10 8 8 10 8
Money Supply M0 4792.40
LBP Billion
4891 4972 5050 5128 5891
Money Supply M1 10996.00
LBP Billion
11262 11463 11661 11858 13795
Money Supply M2 80700.40
LBP Billion
80786 80833 80897 80943 81077
Money Supply M3 211104.00
LBP Billion
213208 214451 215649 216799 226043
Deposit Interest Rate 6.91
percent
6.91 4.91 4.91 6.91 4.91
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -1337.07
USD Million
-1635 -1646 -1645 -1645 -1645
Exports 253.86
USD Million
258 258 258 258 258
Imports 1590.92
USD Million
1894 1905 1903 1903 1903
Current Account -83.70
USD Million
105 119 119 118 118
Current Account to GDP -18.00
percent
-19 -19 -18 -18 -17
External Debt 30555.20
USD Million
31004 31249 31490 31726 33830
Capital Flows 3492.80
USD Million
2597 2567 2644 2649 2651
Remittances 701.00
USD Million
807 798 835 846 834
Gold Reserves 286.80
Tonnes
287 287 287 287 287
Terrorism Index 5.64
5.08 4.83 4.91 4.98 5.92
Tourist Arrivals 1688.00
Thousand
1675 1690 1675 1650 1970
Foreign Direct Investment 172.99
USD Million
218 218 218 218 218
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 148.00
percent
145 145 143 143 142
Government Budget 9.28
percent of GDP
-3.29 1.1 -4.01 -4.65 5
Government Budget Value -614953.00
LBP Million
-613936 -637961 -630561 -631928 -630262
Government Spending 9654240.00
LBP Million
9914904 9914904 9943867 9770091 10344517
Government Revenues 994694.00
LBP Million
1296863 1302174 1296526 1299891 1300521
Fiscal Expenditure 1609647.00
LBP Million
1910799 1948119 1927088 1931819 1930784
Military Expenditure 2368.40
USD Million
2456 2430 2418 2406 2439
Government Debt 107643.00
LBP Billion
110577 112282 113985 115683 132345
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Internet Speed 2056.08
KBps
2220 2239 2247 2236 2245
IP Addresses 179674.00
IP
162650 160642 158813 156466 139779
Manufacturing Pmi 46.00
46.36 49.5 46.29 46.28 51
Ease of Doing Business 133.00
134 136 136 137 143
Electricity Production 1243.00
Gigawatt-hour
1203 1217 1214 1215 1215
Coincident Index 303.10
Index Points
312 306 311 311 309
Competitiveness Index 3.84
Points
3.86 3.86 3.76 3.73 3.81
Competitiveness Rank 105.00
108 108 113 115 113
Corruption Index 28.00
Points
28 28 28 28 28
Corruption Rank 143.00
139 141 142 142 142
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Spending 57362200.00
LBP Million
58910979 58910979 59083066 58050546 61463592
Gasoline Prices 0.95
USD/Liter
0.9 0.85 0.8 0.76 0.42
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 15.00
percent
15 15 15 15 15
Personal Income Tax Rate 20.00
percent
20 20 20 20 20
Sales Tax Rate 11.00
percent
11 11 10.75 11 11
Social Security Rate 23.50
percent
23.5 23.5 24 24 24
Social Security Rate For Companies 21.50
percent
21.5 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.5
Social Security Rate For Employees 2.00
percent
2 2 2 2 2
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Precipitation 56.02
mm
0.81 70.81 105 44.84 50.15
Temperature 8.19
celsius
25.13 15.35 10.29 24.39 18.04