Retail sales in Macau dropped 0.5 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2019, following a downwardly revised 1.7 percent fall in the previous quarter. It was the second straight month decrease in retail sales, but the declines slowed as sales fell softer for both motor vehicles (-3.4 percent vs -22.9 percent in Q1) and adult's clothing (-11.1 percent vs -13.6 percent). In addition, sales rebounded for: communication (14.1 percent vs -14.0 percent); goods in pharmacies (3.0 percent vs -10.0 percent) while those rose faster for cosmetics & sanitary articles (3.4 percent vs 2.4 percent); goods in department stores (6.4 percent vs 6.0 percent), and goods in supermarkets (6.4 percent vs 6.0 percent). On the other hand, sales continued to drop for automotive fuels (-3.9 percent vs -3.3 percent); watches, clothes & jewelry (-4.9 percent vs -2.1 percent). Meanwhile, sales went up softer for leather goods (5.0 percent vs 7.7 percent). Retail Sales YoY in Macau averaged 16.06 percent from 2001 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 49.95 percent in the first quarter of 2008 and a record low of -8.50 percent in the second quarter of 2015.
Retail Sales YoY in Macau is expected to be 2.50 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in Macau to stand at 3.20 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Macau Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 3.40 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.