This page has economic forecasts for Mexico including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Mexico economy.


Overview Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.90 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.9 percent
Unemployment Rate 3.60 3.2 3.2 3.5 3.6 3.6 percent
Inflation Rate 4.90 4.7 4.5 4.3 4.1 3.1 percent
Interest Rate 8.00 8 8 8 8 8.25 percent
Balance of Trade -194.00 500 -500 -1000 -800 1000 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 46.40 46 47 47 47 47 percent
MARKETS Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Currency 20.14
18.99 19.18 19.37 19.57 20.37
Stock Market 42319.27
points
49315 48827 48344 47866 45999
Government Bond 10Y 9.07
percent
8.01 8.09 8.16 8.24 8.55
GDP Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.90
percent
0.7 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.9
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.60
percent
2.2 2.3 2.4 2.3 1.4
GDP 1149.92
USD Billion
1170 1220 1220 1220 1260
GDP Constant Prices 18441674.00
MXN Million
18693531 18894784 18884274 18865833 19334345
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 3808150.84
MXN Million
3810822 3921925 3899546 3895738 3941457
GDP per capita 9946.16
USD
9780 10000 10000 10000 11500
GDP per capita PPP 17336.47
USD
17760 18100 18100 17581 18350
GDP From Agriculture 610395.65
MXN Million
711122 577786 625045 624435 735500
GDP From Construction 1285128.00
MXN Million
1360673 1324803 1315971 1314686 1407317
GDP From Manufacturing 2957793.00
MXN Million
2956507 2933144 3028780 3025822 3057856
GDP From Mining 893411.00
MXN Million
920522 935507 914853 913959 952077
GDP From Public Administration 743888.26
MXN Million
740592 716965 761742 760998 765979
GDP From Services 11762116.59
MXN Million
12086922 11575499 12044407 12032645 12501261
GDP From Transport 1205541.00
MXN Million
1209749 1188999 1234474 1233268 1251219
GDP From Utilities 276360.00
MXN Million
271658 257430 282993 282716 280970
LABOUR Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.60
percent
3.2 3.2 3.5 3.6 3.6
Employed Persons 54027997.00
53600000 54278849 54531709 54755489 55000000
Unemployed Persons 1934278.00
2050000 1804091 1885263 1919100 22800000
Labor Force Participation Rate 59.50
percent
59.3 59.3 59.2 59.81 59.7
Labour Costs 82.30
Index Points
102 81.93 81.96 81.95 105
Productivity 107.00
Index Points
111 107 107 107 115
Wages 351.80
MXN/Day
356 382 373 368 397
Wages in Manufacturing 2.30
USD/Hour
3 2.3 2.4 2.4 3
Minimum Wages 88.36
MXN/Day
88.36 95.45 95.45 95.45 102
Population 123.52
Million
124 125 125 125 126
Retirement Age Women 65.00
65 65 65 65 65
Retirement Age Men 65.00
65 65 65 65 65
Wages Low Skilled 5390.00
MXN/Month
5000 5600 5600 5600 5800
Wages High Skilled 17200.00
MXN/Month
16200 17000 17000 17000 17800
Living Wage Family 7900.00
MXN/Month
8360 8450 8450 8450 8500
Living Wage Individual 4320.00
MXN/Month
4500 4600 4600 4600 4149
Employment Rate 96.40
percent
97.7 98 98.2 96.51 98.8
PRICES Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Inflation Rate 4.90
percent
4.7 4.5 4.3 4.1 3.1
Inflation Rate Mom 0.52
percent
0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.3
Consumer Price Index CPI 101.44
Index Points
103 104 104 105 110
Core Consumer Prices 100.86
Index Points
101 102 103 104 108
Core Inflation Rate 3.73
percent
3.5 3.3 3.2 3 2.8
GDP Deflator 126.03
Index Points
129 131 132 134 144
Producer Prices 128.55
Index Points
131 133 136 135 144
Export Prices 115.40
Index Points
111 112 110 110 114
Import Prices 234.29
Index Points
233 233 233 234 234
Producer Prices Change 6.26
percent
6.7 6.3 6 5.7 4.5
Food Inflation 3.84
percent
3.1 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4
Cpi Housing Utilities 102.52
Index Points
103 102 101 102 102
CPI Transportation 102.38
Index Points
98.16 102 103 106 105
Inflation Expectations 3.80
Percent
3.82 3.87 3.88 3.88 3.87
MONEY Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Interest Rate 8.00
percent
8 8 8 8 8.25
Interbank Rate 8.12
percent
8.12 8.12 8.12 8.12 8.37
Money Supply M0 1528718.80
MXN Million
1500000 1527451 1527261 1527091 1590000
Money Supply M1 4159638869.00
MXN Thousand
3675931375 4138190916 4138366833 4138493037 3810154560
Money Supply M2 8503843452.00
MXN Thousand
8501251915 8500991742 8501159720 8501174010 8501174908
Money Supply M3 9754050071.00
MXN Thousand
9747094310 9746482691 9746602578 9746616894 9746618963
Foreign Exchange Reserves 177040.00
USD Million
180000 178700 178900 176367 190000
Banks Balance Sheet 7605954.35
MXN Million
7783666 7884572 7985669 8085661 8940036
Loans to Private Sector 2553373944.00
MXN Thousand
2669679519 2751317704 2830630938 2909490763 3584814423
Deposit Interest Rate 2.70
percent
2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.95
Central Bank Balance Sheet 3668625207.00
MXN Thousand
3677784955 3680074346 3678128994 3677995915 3678121077
TRADE Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Balance of Trade -194.00
USD Million
500 -500 -1000 -800 1000
Exports 37805.51
USD Million
38500 38000 37500 37200 40000
Imports 37999.42
USD Million
38000 38500 38500 38000 39000
Current Account -3882.10
USD Million
-2300 -4800 -3400 -4600 -3700
Current Account to GDP -1.60
percent
-1.3 -1 -1 -1 -0.8
External Debt 445610.20
USD Million
442000 438000 440000 444000 445500
Terms of Trade 49.25
Index Points
47.64 48.07 47.21 47.01 48.72
Foreign Direct Investment 6726.90
USD Million
6500 6650 6700 6750 6850
Remittances 9057.60
USD Million
7900 8200 8250 8350 8400
Tourism Revenues 1945771.78
USD Thousand
2120000 1815741 1816299 1816932 2300000
Tourist Arrivals 1300.69
Thousand
2500 2100 2000 1400 2500
Gold Reserves 120.30
Tonnes
120 120 120 120 120
Crude Oil Production 1865.00
BBL/D/1K
2070 1896 1896 1896 2100
Terrorism Index 3.29
4.5 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3
Capital Flows -10.90
USD Million
40 -30 -15 -18 -30
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 46.40
percent
46 47 47 47 47
Government Budget -2.90
percent of GDP
-2.7 -2.8 -2.8 -2.8 -2.8
Government Budget Value -80181.00
MXN Million
-325000 39550 -120855 57512 0
Government Spending 2196413.00
MXN Million
2217901 2186645 2249127 2246930 2293930
Government Revenues 378529.40
MXN Million
375000 419550 419145 417512 440000
Fiscal Expenditure 455196.90
MXN Million
700000 380000 540000 360000 440000
Military Expenditure 5532.60
USD Million
5300 5100 5100 5100 4800
BUSINESS Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Business Confidence 50.70
Index Points
50 50.3 50.3 50.1 51
Manufacturing PMI 50.70
51.4 51.7 52 52.4 50.8
Industrial Production 1.80
percent
-0.3 -2.3 0.6 -1.2 1.4
Industrial Production Mom 1.00
percent
0.2 0.5 0.3 0.14 0.2
Manufacturing Production 2.40
percent
2.2 2 2.1 2.3 2.6
Capacity Utilization 81.00
percent
81.31 81.69 81.56 81.41 81.5
Changes in Inventories 109974.00
MXN Million
137331 136590 153480 138781 137840
Total Vehicle Sales 70906.00
82000 73577 73550 73561 90000
Car Production 363.47
Thousand Units
350 335 340 335 360
Car Registrations 70906.00
82000 73577 73550 73561 85000
Leading Economic Index 1.70
percent
2.3 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.4
Internet Speed 7538.43
KBps
8014 8082 8119 8153 8398
IP Addresses 13309655.00
IP
13131627 13259427 13135172 13260253 13147818
Steel Production 1600.00
Thousand Tonnes
1676 1671 1665 1666 1666
Private Investment -2.40
percent
3.2 3.3 3.1 -2.16 3.1
Mining Production 2.87
percent
-7.3 -7.1 -6.7 -6.8 -8
Competitiveness Index 64.60
Points
65.1 65.1 65.1 65.1 67.6
Competitiveness Rank 46.00
46 46 46 46 46
Ease of Doing Business 54.00
50 52 52 52 53
Corruption Index 29.00
Points
29 29 29 29 29
Corruption Rank 135.00
135 135 135 135 135
CONSUMER Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 101.40
Index Points
102 102 102 102 103
Retail Sales MoM -0.30
percent
0.4 0.6 0.8 1.1 0.7
Retail Sales YoY 3.90
percent
3.4 3.6 3.3 3.7 3.2
Consumer Spending 12318801.00
MXN Million
12914582 12284712 12614452 12602133 13357294
Personal Savings 21.50
percent
21.25 21.2 21.77 21.77 22
Consumer Credit 1360348.40
MXN Million
1401064 1417536 1436481 1450756 1559082
Private Sector Credit 4493585130.00
MXN Thousand
4655908419 4769366338 4879396304 4988024884 5887993313
Households Debt To GDP 16.30
percent of GDP
16.44 16.48 16.52 16.57 16.74
Gasoline Prices 0.96
USD/Liter
0.94 0.93 0.91 0.89 0.83
HOUSING Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Construction Output -0.70
percent
2.5 -1.4 -1.1 -1.83 2.4
TAXES Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 30.00
percent
30 30 30 30 30
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.00
percent
35 35 35 35 35
Sales Tax Rate 16.00
percent
16 16 16 16 16
Social Security Rate 9.23
percent
9.23 9.23 9.23 9.23 9.23
Social Security Rate For Companies 7.58
percent
7.58 7.58 7.58 7.58 7.56
Social Security Rate For Employees 1.65
percent
1.65 1.65 1.65 1.65 1.5
CLIMATE Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Precipitation 27.19
mm
42.55 17.29 62.35 61.85 62.12
Temperature 16.74
celsius
18.09 16.7 23.86 21.82 21.08



Mexico - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook