Markets Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2021
Currency 22.57 22.8 22.96 23.13 23.29 23.62
Stock Market (points) 37619.77 36777 35953 35148 34362 32789
Government Bond 10Y (%) 5.75 5.81 5.87 5.93 6 6.12

Overview Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2021
GDP Growth Rate (%) -1.20 10 0.9 1.5 1.3 1.1
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) -1.40 -10 -6.5 -2 10 5
Unemployment Rate (%) 2.90 5.5 6.5 6.3 6.1 5.9
Inflation Rate (%) 2.84 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.2
Inflation Rate Mom (%) 0.38 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.4
Interest Rate (%) 5.00 4 3.5 3.5 3.75 4.75
Balance of Trade (USD Million) -3523.00 -2000 -1000 500 800 2500
Current Account (USD Million) -981.80 -3900 -3700 -2300 -2800 -4500
Current Account to GDP (%) -0.20 -0.8 -0.8 -1.4 -1.4 -1.4
Government Debt to GDP (%) 45.50 57 57 58 58 58
Government Budget (% of GDP) -1.60 -4.5 -4.5 -4 -4 -4
Business Confidence (points) 38.60 39 43 46 48 51
Manufacturing PMI (points) 38.60 43 48.8 49.2 49.3 49.5
Consumer Confidence (points) 42.60 45 45.6 46.1 46.4 48
Retail Sales MoM (%) -22.40 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.5 0.5
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 30.00 30 30 30 30 30
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 35.00 35 35 35 35 35

GDP Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2021
GDP Growth Rate (%) -1.20 10 0.9 1.5 1.3 1.1
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) -1.40 -10 -6.5 -2 10 5
GDP (USD Billion) 1200.00 1230 1230 1280 1280 1280
GDP Constant Prices (MXN Million) 18139598.00 17856847 17173645 17776806 19953558 18032327
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (MXN Million) 3370935.00 3387565 3221189 3303516 3708029 3382249
GDP per capita (USD) 10385.30 10500 10500 10600 10600 10600
GDP per capita PPP (USD) 18101.90 18450 18450 18450 16987 17551
GDP From Agriculture (MXN Million) 582571.56 477615 656635 570920 640829 689467
GDP From Construction (MXN Million) 1184615.00 1159411 1118462 1160923 1303077 1174385
GDP From Manufacturing (MXN Million) 2856046.00 2901976 2684586 2798925 3141651 2818815
GDP From Mining (MXN Million) 894198.00 826249 794767 876314 983618 834505
GDP From Public Administration (MXN Million) 747560.01 659925 677459 732609 822316 711332
GDP From Services (MXN Million) 11414309.26 11248720 11287323 11186023 12555740 11851690
GDP From Transport (MXN Million) 1154985.00 1183597 1131951 1131885 1270484 1188549
GDP From Utilities (MXN Million) 268271.00 308284 276307 262906 295098 290123

Labour Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2021
Unemployment Rate (%) 2.90 5.5 6.5 6.3 6.1 5.9
Employed Persons 55352304.00 55200000 55300000 55300000 55300000 55500000
Unemployed Persons 1976060.00 2250000 2280000 2260000 2240000 22000000
Labor Force Participation Rate (%) 59.80 59.8 60 60.1 60.2 60.4
Productivity (points) 83.00 90 91 91 91 94
Wages (MXN/Day) 408.02 392 397 408 408 419
Wages in Manufacturing (USD/Hour) 2.40 2.7 3.3 2.9 2.9 3.2
Minimum Wages (MXN/Day) 123.22 123 123 143 143 143
Population (Million) 126.58 126 128 128 128 129
Retirement Age Women 65.00 65 65 65 65 65
Retirement Age Men 65.00 65 65 65 65 65
Employment Rate (%) 97.06 96.2 96.1 96.3 96.4 96.7

Prices Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2021
Inflation Rate (%) 2.84 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.2
Inflation Rate Mom (%) 0.38 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.4
Consumer Price Index CPI (points) 106.16 107 109 110 109 112
Core Consumer Prices (points) 106.97 108 109 110 111 112
Core Inflation Rate (%) 3.60 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.2
Producer Prices (points) 104.14 104 104 106 108 107
Inflation Expectations (Percent) 3.47 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.87
Producer Prices Change (%) 4.80 4.3 4 3.5 3.3 3.1
CPI Transportation (points) 98.18 107 108 105 101 112
Food Inflation (%) 7.60 7 6.5 6 5.5 3.5

Money Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2021
Interest Rate (%) 5.00 4 3.5 3.5 3.75 4.75
Interbank Rate (%) 5.65 5.65 5.65 5.65 5.9 5.9
Foreign Exchange Reserves (USD Million) 196146.00 188000 190000 191000 191000 194000
Banks Balance Sheet (MXN Million) 91871098.00 93000000 94000000 92500000 91800000 90600000
Deposit Interest Rate (%) 2.60 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.85 2.85
Central Bank Balance Sheet (MXN Thousand) 4853006619.00 5020000000 5060000000 5040000000 5000000000 4700000000

Trade Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2021
Balance of Trade (USD Million) -3523.00 -2000 -1000 500 800 2500
Current Account (USD Million) -981.80 -3900 -3700 -2300 -2800 -4500
Current Account to GDP (%) -0.20 -0.8 -0.8 -1.4 -1.4 -1.4
Imports (USD Million) 21592.40 26000 26500 27500 32200 35500
Exports (USD Million) 18069.80 24000 25500 28000 33000 38000
External Debt (USD Million) 463654.10 467000 468000 468000 468000 468000
Foreign Direct Investment (USD Million) 10334.00 6500 6850 6850 6850 6950
Remittances (USD Million ) 9293.20 8500 8400 8400 8400 8500
Tourism Revenues (USD Thousand) 2281554.18 1700000 2300000 2300000 2300000 2450000
Tourist Arrivals (Thousand) 86.35 1350 2800 2380 2380 2600
Gold Reserves (Tonnes) 120.10 120 120 120 120 120
Capital Flows (USD Million) -7.90 -20 -30 -30 -30 -35
Auto Exports (Thousand Units) 15.09 290 300 330 330 310

Government Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2021
Government Debt to GDP (%) 45.50 57 57 58 58 58
Government Budget (% of GDP) -1.60 -4.5 -4.5 -4 -4 -4
Government Budget Value (MXN Million) -74267.10 -380000 -295000 -295000 -295000 -310000
Government Spending (MXN Million) 2261706.00 2034633 2063202 2216472 2487877 2166362
Government Revenues (MXN Million) 394936.50 412000 450000 450000 450000 450000
Fiscal Expenditure (MXN Million) 433793.60 490000 745000 745000 745000 735000
Military Expenditure (USD Million) 6375.00 7000 7000 7000 7000 6900

Taxes Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2021
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 30.00 30 30 30 30 30
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 35.00 35 35 35 35 35
Sales Tax Rate (%) 16.00 16 16 16 16 16
Social Security Rate (%) 9.23 9.23 9.23 9.23 9.23 9.23
Social Security Rate For Companies (%) 7.58 7.58 7.58 7.58 7.58 7.58
Social Security Rate For Employees (%) 1.65 1.65 1.65 1.65 1.65 1.65

Business Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2021
Business Confidence (points) 38.60 39 43 46 48 51
Manufacturing PMI (points) 38.60 43 48.8 49.2 49.3 49.5
Industrial Production (%) -29.30 -2 -1 1.7 1.7 1.6
Industrial Production Mom (%) -25.10 -0.5 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3
Manufacturing Production (%) -35.30 1.5 1.7 1.9 1.9 2.2
Total Vehicle Sales 18772.00 64000 68000 68000 68000 80000
Car Production (Thousand Units) 22.12 330 360 352 352 370
Car Registrations 18772.00 82000 85000 85000 85000 86000
Leading Economic Index (%) -19.90 -2.5 -1.5 0.5 0.7 1.6
Private Investment (%) -11.00 -10 -5 -2.5 -2.5 0.5
Mining Production (%) -3.63 -3 -4.5 -5 -5 -7

Consumer Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2021
Consumer Confidence (points) 42.60 45 45.6 46.1 46.4 48
Retail Sales MoM (%) -22.40 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.5 0.5
Retail Sales YoY (%) -23.80 -2 -0.8 0.3 1.2 2.4
Consumer Spending (MXN Million) 12145433.00 12168109 11977386 11902524 13359976 12576256
Personal Savings (%) 21.20 22 22 22 22 22
Consumer Credit (MXN Million) 1372919.50 1387271 1302753 1345461 1510211 1367891
Households Debt To GDP (% of GDP) 16.20 16.68 16.68 16.68 16.68 16.68
Gasoline Prices (USD/Liter) 0.84 0.8 0.76 0.72 0.68 0.65

Housing Actual Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2021
Construction Output (%) -37.97 -1 1.5 1.7 1.7 2.5


This page has economic forecasts for Mexico including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Mexico economy.