Industrial production in Mexico fell 0.8 percent year-on-year in February 2019, following an upwardly revised 1 percent decline January and in line with market expectations. It was the smallest decrease in industrial output since December 2017, as production dropped less for mining & quarrying (-6.4 percent vs -10.1 percent in January), namely extraction oil & gas (-8.8 percent vs -15.1 percent); and utilities (-1.1 percent vs -1.7 percent), mostly electricity generation (-1.8 percent vs -2.4 percent). Meanwhile, manufacturing output growth slowed (1.1 percent vs 1.3 percent), of which clothing (-3.9 percent vs -3.1 percent), and metallic products (-5.6 percent vs -2.6 percent). Also, construction production fell (-1.1 percent vs 1.3 percent), driven by civil engineering works (-3.5 percent vs 2.2 percent) and buildings (0.5 percent vs 3.2 percent). On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, industrial output went up 0.3 percent, after an upwardly revised 0.7 percent gain in January. Industrial Production in Mexico averaged 1.76 percent from 1980 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 23.82 percent in October of 1996 and a record low of -17.50 percent in October of 1995.
Industrial Production in Mexico is expected to be -2.30 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Industrial Production in Mexico to stand at 1.60 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Mexico Industrial Production is projected to trend around 1.40 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.