The economic activity in Mexico advance 1.3 percent year-on-year in January 2019, following a flat reading in the previous month and beating market expectations of a 0.5 percent expansion. The services sector grew at a faster pace (2.2 percent from 0.9 percent in December), mainly driven by wholesales (4.5 percent from 0.1 percent) and retail trade (2.5 percent from -0.1 percent). Additionally, the secondary sector shrank less (-0.9 percent from -2.5 percent), of which manufacturing (1.3 percent from 0.2 percent) and construction (1.7 percent from -4.3 percent). On the other hand, growth slowed in the primary sector (3.8 percent from 4.7 percent). On a monthly basis, economic activity expanded 0.2 percent, after a 0.4 percent contraction in the prior month. Leading Economic Index in Mexico averaged 2.64 percent from 1994 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 12.60 percent in October of 1996 and a record low of -9.80 percent in October of 1995.
Leading Economic Index in Mexico is expected to be 2.10 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Leading Economic Index in Mexico to stand at 2.20 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Mexico Overall Index of Economic Activity is projected to trend around 2.40 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.