Retail Sales in Mexico increased 0.4 percent year-on-year in October 2019, slowing from a 2.4 percent gain in the previous month and below market forecasts of a 2.2 percent rise. It was the smallest gain in retail activity since December 2018 when it decreased 0.5 percent. On a monthly basis, retail trade slumped 2.3 percent, the most since December 2018, after an upwardly revised 1.1 percent rise in the previous month and against market expectations of a 0.1 percent gain. Retail Sales YoY in Mexico averaged 2.19 percent from 2002 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 9.10 percent in February of 2012 and a record low of -6.60 percent in February of 2009. source: Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI)
Retail Sales YoY in Mexico is expected to be 3.60 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in Mexico to stand at 2.80 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Mexico Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 3.40 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.