The Standard Bank Mozambique PMI inched down to 49.3 in December 2020 from 49.4 in the previous month. The reading pointed to the tenth straight month of contraction in private activity, as the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic remained weaker than seen earlier in the year. New orders declined at a faster pace, amid a drop in client numbers and reports that export goods took longer to arrive at destinations. Meantime, output continued to expand while employment rose at the strongest pace in ten months. Purchasing activity dropped for first time in three months, due to a fall in new orders. On the price front, input costs increased for first time in nine months, due to a weaker exchange rate and higher staff cost. As a result, selling prices increased marginally. Finally, sentiment strengthened, on hopes of a global recovery due to the development of COVID-19 vaccines. source: Markit Economics
Composite PMI in Mozambique is expected to be 49.60 points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Composite PMI in Mozambique to stand at 51.30 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Mozambique Standard Bank PMI is projected to trend around 51.00 points in 2021 and 53.00 points in 2022, according to our econometric models.
Mozambique Private Sector Contracts Further
Mozambique Private Sector Contracts the Least in 8 Months
Mozambique Composite PMI Highest in 7 Months
Mozambique Private Sector Shrinks the Least in 6 Months
Mozambique Standard Bank PMI
The Standard Bank Mozambique PMI™ is compiled by IHS Markit from responses to questionnaires sent to purchasing managers in a panel of around 400 private sector companies. The panel is stratified by detailed sector and company workforce size, based on contributions to GDP. The sectors covered by the survey include agriculture, mining, manufacturing, construction, wholesale, retail and services. Survey responses are collected in the second half of each month and indicate the direction of change compared to the previous month. A diffusion index is calculated for each survey variable. The index is the sum of the percentage of ‘higher’ responses and half the percentage of ‘unchanged’ responses. The indices vary between 0 and 100, with a reading above 50 indicating an overall increase compared to the previous month, and below 50 an overall decrease. The indices are then seasonally adjusted. The headline figure is the Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI). The PMI is a weighted average of the following five indices: New Orders (30%), Output (25%), Employment (20%), Suppliers’ Delivery Times (15%) and Stocks of Purchases (10%). For the PMI calculation the Suppliers’ Delivery Times Index is inverted so that it moves in a comparable direction to the other indices.