The ANZ Business Confidence Index in New Zealand lifted unexpectedly to -32.0 in May 2019 from -37.5 in the previous month and beating market consensus of -42.7. It was the highest reading in three months, as activity outlook strengthened (8.5 vs 7.1 in April). Also, investment intentions (2.9 vs 1.5), capacity utilization (5.4 vs 4.2), and profit expectations (-9.6 vs -13.0) improved. Meantime, export expectations fell (0.0 vs 1.5) and employment intentions turned to negative (-0.3 vs 4.3). At the same time, both pricing intentions (28.5 vs 26.7) and cost pressures (49.7 vs 46.6) went up, while inflation expectations fell to the lowest since early 2017 (1.81 vs 2.04). Among sectors, commercial construction intentions plunged (4.2 vs 15.8) and residential dropped to a fresh 10-year low (-27.3 vs -20.0). Business Confidence in New Zealand averaged 4.71 percent from 1970 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 80.90 percent in February of 1994 and a record low of -76.40 percent in December of 1974.
Business Confidence in New Zealand is expected to be -38.00 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Business Confidence in New Zealand to stand at -25.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the New Zealand Business Confidence is projected to trend around 15.00 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.