The ANZ Business Confidence Index in New Zealand dropped to -53.5 in September 2019 from -52.3 in the previous month. This was the lowest reading since April 2008 on the back of heightening domestic and global headwinds. Activity outlook (-1.8 vs -0.5 in August), investment intentions (-8.9 vs -3.9) and profit expectations (-24.6 vs -19.5) dropped further, with capacity utilisation softening noticeably (1.9 vs 3.2). At the same time, pricing intentions eased to its lowest since October 2016 (18 vs 20.3), as cost pressures slowed (47.3 vs 49.2) and inflation expectations went down to its weakest level since December 2016 (1.63 vs 1.7). Meanwhile, employment intentions bounced back, though they were still negative (-7.8 vs -8.9) and export expectations rebounded (2.1 vs -0.8). Among sectors, commercial construction (-12.5 vs -4) and residential buildings (-19.2 vs -4) remained in negative territory. Business Confidence in New Zealand averaged 4.22 percent from 1970 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 80.90 percent in February of 1994 and a record low of -76.40 percent in December of 1974.
Business Confidence in New Zealand is expected to be -55.00 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Business Confidence in New Zealand to stand at -27.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the New Zealand Business Confidence is projected to trend around 15.00 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.