New Zealand - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for New Zealand including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the New Zealand economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.50 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 percent
Unemployment Rate 4.50 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 5.2 percent
Inflation Rate 1.50 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 2.1 percent
Interest Rate 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 2.75 percent
Balance of Trade -143.00 -2100 -300 400 -500 -300 NZD Million
Government Debt to GDP 22.20 21.5 21.5 20 20 21 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 0.66
 0.67 0.66 0.66 0.65 0.63
Stock Market 9345.06
points		 9299 9235 9173 9111 8866
Government Bond 10Y 2.64
percent		 2.67 2.71 2.74 2.78 2.95
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.50
percent		 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.70
percent		 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6
GDP 205.85
USD Billion		 215 215 225 225 250
GDP Constant Prices 61197.00
NZD Million		 61688 62710 62849 61796 66077
Gross National Product 64823.00
NZD Million		 63719 65855 66573 63820 69392
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 15709.00
NZD Million		 15390 15961 16133 15334 16818
GDP per capita 37852.87
USD		 38100 38100 38500 38500 38900
GDP per capita PPP 36085.84
USD		 36600 36600 37100 37100 37700
GDP From Agriculture 3205.00
NZD Million		 3375 3307 3292 3433 3485
GDP From Construction 3804.00
NZD Million		 3866 3942 3907 3780 4153
GDP From Manufacturing 5977.00
NZD Million		 6026 6096 6138 6055 6424
GDP From Mining 763.00
NZD Million		 773 797 784 758 840
GDP From Public Administration 2607.00
NZD Million		 2561 2614 2677 2598 2754
GDP From Services 40801.00
NZD Million		 40668 41623 41903 40909 43859
GDP From Transport 2826.00
NZD Million		 2808 2891 2902 2802 3046
GDP From Utilities 1721.00
NZD Million		 1732 1780 1767 1786 1875
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.50
percent		 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 5.2
Employed Persons 2631.00
Thousand 		2650 2654 2600 2640 2700
Unemployed Persons 124.00
Thousand 		123 124 123 124 125
Employment Change 0.50
percent		 1.1 0.5 1.1 0.2 0.4
Labor Force Participation Rate 70.90
percent		 71 70.9 70.8 70.8 71.2
Labour Costs 1168.00
Index Points		 1174 1179 1184 1189 1238
Productivity 167.97
Index Points		 168 168 168 168 168
Job Vacancies 190.92
Index Points		 190 190 189 189 189
Job Advertisements 45099.12
 45269 46140 46673 47008 47605
Wages 31.08
NZD/Hour		 31.55 31.57 32.04 32.27 34.49
Wages in Manufacturing 29.37
NZD/Hour		 29.6 29.7 31.2 29.84 34
Minimum Wages 16.50
NZD/Hour		 16.5 16.5 18 18 20
Population 4.84
Million		 4.91 4.91 5.1 5.1 5.2
Retirement Age Women 65.00
 65 65 65 65 65
Retirement Age Men 65.00
 65 65 65 65 65
Youth Unemployment Rate 10.90
percent		 10.94 11.44 11.53 11.22 11.31
Part Time Employment 545.00
Thousand		 553 560 556 558 579
Employment Rate 67.70
percent		 67.47 67.64 67.43 67.58 67.49
Full Time Employment 2093.00
Thousand		 2109 2126 2144 2159 2286
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 1.50
percent		 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 2.1
Inflation Rate Mom 0.40
percent		 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3
Consumer Price Index CPI 1015.00
Index Points		 1022 1023 1029 1033 1063
Core Consumer Prices 1015.00
Index Points		 1012 1016 1022 1026 1038
Core Inflation Rate 1.01
percent		 0.75 0.86 0.96 1.05 1.09
GDP Deflator 1181.00
Index Points		 1188 1184 1187 1186 1186
Producer Prices 1124.00
Index Points		 1130 1130 1134 1134 1145
Export Prices 1182.00
Index Points		 1197 1189 1197 1186 1188
Import Prices 814.00
Index Points		 828 835 843 851 875
Inflation Expectations 2.04
percent		 1.91 1.91 1.94 1.92 1.91
Food Inflation -0.10
percent		 0.3 0.6 1 2 1.7
Cpi Housing Utilities 1031.00
Index Points		 1028 1033 1040 1050 1074
CPI Transportation 1020.00
Index Points		 1006 1037 1036 1038 1078
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 1.75
percent		 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 2.75
Interbank Rate 2.30
percent		 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 3.3
Money Supply M0 6348.00
NZD Million		 9266 9179 9181 9182 9182
Money Supply M1 67413.00
NZD Million		 68059 69600 71115 72605 86862
Money Supply M3 301499.00
NZD Million		 297672 298430 298517 298420 298258
Foreign Exchange Reserves 31462.00
NZD Million		 31371 31117 31208 31203 31200
Banks Balance Sheet 543344.00
NZD Million		 548258 550871 551459 551906 552043
Deposit Interest Rate 3.20
percent		 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 4.2
Loans To Private Sector 110548.00
NZD Million		 112053 113298 114442 115505 122822
Central Bank Balance Sheet 29606.00
NZD Million		 29393 29295 29507 29460 29460
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -143.00
NZD Million		 -2100 -300 400 -500 -300
Exports 5350.00
NZD Million		 3600 5250 5500 4800 5100
Imports 5492.00
NZD Million		 5700 5550 5100 5300 5400
Current Account -1620.00
NZD Million		 -4509 -2922 75 -650 -2882
Current Account to GDP -2.80
percent		 -2.8 -2.8 -2.5 -2.5 -2.4
External Debt 273275.00
NZD Million		 276068 277430 278968 280381 293560
Terms of Trade 1452.00
Index Points		 1445 1401 1419 1394 1358
Capital Flows -1736.00
NZD Million		 1861 1650 1086 1329 1672
Foreign Direct Investment -1510.00
NZD Million		 168 434 502 547 526
Tourist Arrivals 250523.00
 18.7 500000 295600 292000 308000
Terrorism Index 0.61
 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3
Weapons Sales 4.00
USD Million		 2.5 2.5 5 5 1.5
Crude Oil Production 24.00
BBL/D/1K		 23.9 23.91 23.91 23.91 23.91
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 22.20
percent		 21.5 21.5 20 20 21
Government Budget 1.50
percent of GDP		 2 2 1.6 1.6 1
Government Budget Value 4069.00
NZD Million		 5755 6588 6876 7164 10433
Government Spending 11499.00
NZD Million		 11629 11770 11809 11476 12403
Government Revenues 104227.00
NZD Million		 106404 108100 109038 109976 119251
Fiscal Expenditure 99812.00
NZD Million		 100649 101512 102162 102812 108817
Military Expenditure 2225.60
USD Million		 2300 2300 2450 2450 2480
Asylum Applications 24.00
Persons		 20.67 19.97 20.35 20.22 20.25
Government Debt 59480.00
NZD Million		 61000 61000 58000 58000 57000
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence -50.30
percent		 -57 -56 -50 -46 15
Manufacturing PMI 52.05
 51.8 52.3 53.1 52.6 54
Industrial Production 2.10
percent		 3.2 2.8 3 3.6 3.4
Capacity Utilization 92.80
percent		 93.02 92.47 92.48 92.48 92.68
Changes in Inventories 565.00
NZD Million		 -300 450 600 80 380
Car Registrations 5365.00
 6069 5906 5842 5821 5813
Internet Speed 14708.73
KBps		 20324 21208 22079 22937 30799
IP Addresses 1778178.00
IP		 1880073 1899649 1894925 1902392 1908450
Services Pmi 53.20
 54.13 57.54 54.66 54.68 54.68
Steel Production 61.84
Thousand Tonnes		 54.89 56.21 56.2 56.06 55.92
Competitiveness Index 5.37
Points		 5.37 5.37 5.42 5.42 5.47
Competitiveness Rank 13.00
 13 13 11 11 10
Composite Pmi 53.10
 52.7 53.4 54.1 53.7 53.8
Ease of Doing Business 1.00
 1 1 1 1 1
Corruption Index 89.00
Points		 90 90 90 90 90
Corruption Rank 1.00
 2 2 2 2 2
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 103.50
Index Points		 107 104 104 104 106
Retail Sales MoM 1.10
percent		 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.3
Retail Sales YoY 3.10
percent		 3.6 4 4.2 3.8 3.7
Consumer Spending 37584.00
NZD Million		 37718 38667 38599 37799 40743
Private Sector Credit 439629.00
NZD Million		 443644 448167 452822 457270 497168
Bank Lending Rate 9.34
percent		 9.34 9.34 9.34 9.34 10.34
Households Debt To Gdp 91.80
Percent		 91.47 91.38 91.28 91.21 90.74
Households Debt To Income 166.00
percent		 166 166 166 166 166
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Building Permits 2522.00
 2250 2000 2100 2150 2400
Housing Index 0.90
percent		 -1.6 -1.6 -1.3 -1.3 1.2
Construction Output 8.10
percent		 4.2 3.7 3.8 4 4
Home Ownership Rate 64.80
percent		 64.58 64.58 64.29 64.29 62.6
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 28.00
percent		 28 28 28 28 28
Personal Income Tax Rate 33.00
percent		 33 33 33 33 33
Sales Tax Rate 15.00
percent		 15 15 15 15 15
Social Security Rate 11.00
percent		 11 11 11 11 11
Social Security Rate For Companies 3.00
percent		 3 3 3 3 3
Social Security Rate For Employees 8.00
percent		 8 8 8 8 8
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Temperature 8.20
celsius		 6.69 11.86 14.61 10.45 10.62