New Zealand’s BNZ Manufacturing PMI declined to 50.2 in May 2019 from a downwardly revised 52.7 in the previous month and below market expectations of 54.4. The latest reading pointed to the weakest expansion in the factory sector since December 2012, as output (46.4 from 50.1 in April) and employment (48.6 from 51.4) fell into contraction territory. Also, new orders (50.4 from 52.2) an deliveries (51.7 from 55.3) dropped. On the other hand, finished stocks increased to 56.5 from 52.5 in April. “The PMI sends a warning signal for near term growth via its mix of falling production, near flat new orders, and rising inventory. Next week's Q1 GDP should be reasonable, but beyond this downside risks are accumulating,” said BNZ Senior Economist, Doug Steel. Manufacturing PMI in New Zealand averaged 53.38 from 2002 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 62.80 in June of 2004 and a record low of 36.10 in November of 2008.
Manufacturing PMI in New Zealand is expected to be 51.00 by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Manufacturing PMI in New Zealand to stand at 53.50 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the New Zealand Manufacturing PMI is projected to trend around 54.00 in 2020, according to our econometric models.