The BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index in New Zealand decreased 2.9 points from the previous month to 48.2 in July 2019, missing market expectations of 51.8 and pointing to the first month of contraction in the manufacturing sector since September 2012. The new orders sub-index dropped to its lowest level since December 2012 (-3.5 points to 48.9), while the employment sub-index fell for the third consecutive time to reach its lowest value since June 2009 (-4.6 points to 42.6). In addition, finished stocks increased at a softer pace (-4.1 points to 53.2) and deliveries continued in negative territory (+0.3 points to 48.9). The production sub-index was unchanged at 51.1. Manufacturing PMI in New Zealand averaged 53.35 from 2002 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 62.80 in June of 2004 and a record low of 36.10 in November of 2008.
Manufacturing PMI in New Zealand is expected to be 47.80 by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Manufacturing PMI in New Zealand to stand at 51.20 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the New Zealand Manufacturing PMI is projected to trend around 54.00 in 2020, according to our econometric models.