New Zealand’s BNZ Manufacturing PMI declined to 51.9 in March 2019 from a downwardly revised 53.4 in the previous month and well below market expectations of 54.4. The latest reading pointed to the weakest expansion in factory activity in eight months, as four of the five subindices lost steam in March. Production (51.4 from 53.6 in February); new orders (52.5 from 54.4); deliveries (52.3 from 54.9) and finished stocks (53.1 from 55) dropped. In contrast, employment rose to 51.9 from 50.8. “Slow as it might appear, New Zealand’s PMI of 51.9 in March was certainly doing well in a global context. Of all the deceleration that has occurred in the world economy over the last 6-12 months, manufacturing has been at the forefront,” said BNZ Senior Economist, Craig Ebert. Manufacturing PMI in New Zealand averaged 53.40 from 2002 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 62.80 in June of 2004 and a record low of 36.10 in November of 2008.
Manufacturing PMI in New Zealand is expected to be 52.60 by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Manufacturing PMI in New Zealand to stand at 53.50 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the New Zealand Manufacturing PMI is projected to trend around 54.00 in 2020, according to our econometric models.