The volume of total retail sales in New Zealand rose a modest 0.2 percent in the second quarter of 2019, after a 0.7 percent advance in the previous period and compared to market expectations of a 0.1 percent gain. Electrical and electronic goods had the largest increase (5 percent vs 0.3 percent), followed by recreational goods (6.2 percent vs 3.2 percent). In contrast, sales at supermarket and grocery stores fell 0.9 percent (vs 0.4 percent in Q1) and those at department stores declined 2.1 percent (vs 4.3 percent in Q1). Retail Sales MoM in New Zealand averaged 0.74 percent from 1995 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 2.80 percent in the third quarter of 2004 and a record low of -2.80 percent in the first quarter of 2009.
Retail Sales MoM in New Zealand is expected to be 0.50 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales MoM in New Zealand to stand at 1.20 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the New Zealand Retail Sales QoQ is projected to trend around 1.50 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.