Retail sales in New Zealand increased 0.7 percent quarter-on-quarter in the three months to March 2019, slowing from a 1.7 percent gain in the previous period but above market expectations of a 0.6 percent rise. Sales advanced at a softer pace for supermarket & grocery (0.7 percent vs 1.8 percent in Q4 2018); clothing, footwear, & accessories (0.9 percent vs 2.9 percent); and fuel (0.2 percent vs 0.9 percent). Also, sales dropped for pharmaceutical and other store-based (-5.7 percent vs 8.3 percent); accommodation (-4.7 percent vs 0.4 percent); and food & beverage services (-0.3 percent vs 4.4 percent). Year-on-year, retail sales went up 3.3 percent in the first quarter of 2019, after rising 3.5 percent in the prior period. Retail Sales MoM in New Zealand averaged 0.74 percent from 1995 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 2.80 percent in the third quarter of 2004 and a record low of -2.80 percent in the first quarter of 2009.
Retail Sales MoM in New Zealand is expected to be 0.30 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales MoM in New Zealand to stand at 1.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the New Zealand Retail Sales QoQ is projected to trend around 1.50 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.