This page has economic forecasts for Nigeria including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Nigeria economy.


Overview Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 2.90 5 -13.1 2 3 4.5 percent
Unemployment Rate 18.80 17 17.2 17.3 17.4 15 percent
Inflation Rate 11.28 10.5 11.4 12 12.5 11.2 percent
Interest Rate 14.00 14 14 13.75 13.5 12 percent
Balance of Trade 887641.12 -37000 787497 787656 787742 -17600 NGN Millions
Government Debt to GDP 21.30 21 23 23 23 25 percent
MARKETS Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Currency 305.70
317 330 343 356 416
Stock Market 32058.28
points
32370 31977 31590 31210 29727
Government Bond 10y 15.69
percent
15.36 15.53 15.69 15.86 16.54
GDP Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 2.90
percent
5 -13.1 2 3 4.5
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.50
percent
1.8 2 3 3.2 3.5
GDP 375.77
USD Billion
411 500 500 500 690
GDP Constant Prices 16580508.10
NGN Million
18932832 16428870 17077923 17111084 20183346
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 2494431.00
NGN Million
2539331 2544320 2569264 2574253 2707054
GDP per capita 2412.41
USD
2461 2550 2550 2550 2690
GDP per capita PPP 5338.45
USD
5400 5510 5510 5510 5600
GDP From Agriculture 3789720.12
NGN Million
4946907 3557059 3903412 3910991 5273650
GDP From Construction 747860.30
NGN Million
660825 663783 770296 771792 704473
GDP From Manufacturing 1539566.75
NGN Million
1677340 1627475 1585754 1588833 1788129
GDP From Mining 1418073.13
NGN Million
1390845 1578061 1460615 1463451 1482710
GDP From Public Administration 380006.76
NGN Millions
436643 365666 391407 392167 465483
GDP From Services 6067614.53
NGN Millions
7063387 6188967 6249643 6261778 7529924
GDP From Transport 216351.50
NGN Millions
257885 246365 222842 223275 274919
GDP From Utilities 111806.01
NGN Million
128595 62248 115160 115384 137088
LABOUR Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 18.80
percent
17 17.2 17.3 17.4 15
Population 190.89
Million
193 198 198 198 200
Living Wage Family 137600.00
NGN/Month
138700 139900 139900 139900 139900
Living Wage Individual 43200.00
NGN/Month
40100 40100 40100 40100 40100
Employed Persons 69090.00
Thousand
70418 68939 68939 68939 74705
Employment Change 187226.00
Jobs
110000 319332 312693 302504 200000
Employment Rate 81.20
percent
86.7 75.81 76.29 76.99 87.6
Unemployed Persons 15998.00
Thousand
12885 20585 20043 19291 12465
Wages High Skilled 57200.00
NGN/Month
57600 57600 57600 57600 58700
Wages Low Skilled 25500.00
NGN/Month
27500 27500 25500 27500 28500
Youth Unemployment Rate 33.10
percent
20.8 37.14 36.28 35.17 18.9
PRICES Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Inflation Rate 11.28
percent
10.5 11.4 12 12.5 11.2
Consumer Price Index CPI 268.40
Index Points
272 281 292 302 340
Core Consumer Prices 251.65
Index Points
255 263 271 277 297
Core Inflation Rate 9.80
percent
9.1 10.09 10.08 10.05 7.2
Food Inflation 13.31
percent
11.8 10.5 12 12.5 8.1
Inflation Rate Mom 0.80
percent
1.2 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.7
GDP Deflator 185.15
Index Points
151 190 196 196 164
Cpi Housing Utilities 269.20
Index Points
272 273 274 274 274
CPI Transportation 250.10
Index Points
256 266 274 281 320
MONEY Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Interest Rate 14.00
percent
14 14 13.75 13.5 12
Cash Reserve Ratio 22.50
percent
22.5 22.5 22.5 22.5 20
Money Supply M0 1956009.42
NGN Million
1771520 1907031 1948845 1910493 1811767
Money Supply M1 11130260.91
NGN Million
11042841 11044720 11051578 11048110 11049333
Money Supply M2 25713707.60
NGN Million
25934987 26370829 26799201 27225639 30978051
Foreign Exchange Reserves 42128.00
USD Million
55300 41525 41078 40790 57000
Deposit Interest Rate 9.44
percent
8.77 8.77 8.52 8.27 6.77
Lending Rate 16.65
percent
16.65 16.65 16.4 16.15 14.65
Money Supply M3 33607642.22
NGN Million
34614839 35350214 36080111 36806405 43190514
TRADE Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Balance of Trade 887641.12
NGN Millions
-37000 787497 787656 787742 -17600
Exports 1482223.15
NGN Millions
400000 1501446 1501446 1501446 451000
Imports 594582.03
NGN Millions
437000 713949 713790 713704 627000
Current Account 5735.86
USD Million
2560 4091 3646 4224 3041
Current Account to GDP 2.00
percent
2.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 4.4
Terms of Trade 109.20
Index Points
102 98.74 98.74 98.74 107
Foreign Direct Investment 435.64
USD Million
948 709 794 724 1160
Capital Flows 1792.62
USD Million
-1730 -554 -570 108 2945
Gold Reserves 21.40
Tonnes
21.4 21.4 21.4 21.4 21.4
Crude Oil Production 1772.00
BBL/D/1K
1760 1800 1800 1820 1900
External Debt 22083.44
USD Million
24539 25699 26816 27891 35934
Terrorism Index 9.01
9.2 9.01 9.1 9.1 8.9
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 21.30
percent
21 23 23 23 25
Government Budget -5.10
percent of GDP
-3.1 -2.6 -2.6 -2.6 -2.3
Government Revenues 680.13
NGN Billion
1039 875 801 803 1235
Government Spending 795880.30
NGN Million
810206 811798 819757 821348 863720
Government Budget Value -397.17
NGN Billion
-105 -457 -770 -708 -487
Fiscal Expenditure 1077.29
NGN Billion
1145 1332 1571 1511 1722
Military Expenditure 1650.80
USD Million
2132 1721 1728 1736 2486
BUSINESS Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Business Confidence 24.80
Index Points
28 32.87 34.64 34.91 15
Industrial Production -3.30
percent
-0.7 -0.65 1 1.5 3.5
Manufacturing Production 3.40
percent
2.7 -0.09 -0.12 -0.13 3.7
Internet Speed 3853.93
KBps
3856 3856 3856 3856 3856
IP Addresses 209207.00
IP
177142 183808 174870 181781 174520
Manufacturing Pmi 56.80
56.3 56.96 56.75 56.76 51.3
Ease of Doing Business 146.00
144 136 136 135 155
Corruption Index 27.00
Points
27 27 27 27 27
Corruption Rank 148.00
148 148 148 148 148
Changes In Inventories 159351.20
NGN Million
141000 142375 144399 142719 161800
Competitiveness Index 47.53
Points
48.03 48.03 48.03 48.03 50.53
Competitiveness Rank 115.00
115 115 115 115 115
Composite Pmi 54.40
56 54.98 54.96 54.95 53
Capacity Utilization 54.50
percent
54 55.4 56.06 55.48 59
Services Pmi 57.00
57.3 56.94 56.96 56.96 52.75
CONSUMER Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 1.50
Index Points
-5 4.68 -8 -6 3.23
Consumer Spending 11018143.01
NGN Million
11216470 11238506 11348687 11370724 11957317
Disposable Personal Income 19838426.72
NGN Million
19497106 19612688 19642636 19690522 21904999
Private Sector Credit 22723726.11
NGN Million
24769687 22939101 22988896 23010096 31091401
Gasoline Prices 0.47
USD/Liter
0.46 0.45 0.45 0.44 0.41
TAXES Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 30.00
percent
30 30 30 30 30
Personal Income Tax Rate 24.00
percent
24 24 24 24 24
Sales Tax Rate 5.00
percent
5 5 5 5 5
CLIMATE Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Temperature 25.14
celsius
25.81 26.88 27.37 27.37 27.39



Nigeria - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook