This page has economic forecasts for Norway including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Norway economy.


Overview Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.40 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.8 percent
Unemployment Rate 4.00 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.7 percent
Inflation Rate 3.10 2.9 1.9 2 1.8 1.5 percent
Interest Rate 0.75 0.75 1 1 1 1.5 percent
Balance of Trade 21119.00 19800 25400 6300 22859 14900 NOK Million
Government Debt to GDP 36.20 34 32 32 32 30 percent
MARKETS Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Currency 8.50
8.25 8.3 8.36 8.42 8.66
Stock Market 1002.51
points
1062 1052 1041 1031 990
Government Bond 10Y 1.97
percent
1.97 2.01 2.05 2.08 2.25
GDP Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.40
percent
0.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.8
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.30
percent
2.3 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.6
GDP 398.83
USD Billion
425 450 450 450 470
GDP Constant Prices 805405.00
NOK Million
818909 819208 823929 823124 855325
Gross National Product 881187.00
NOK Million
888740 870770 901454 900573 928261
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 204223.00
NOK Million
211577 197750 208920 208716 220985
GDP per capita 91218.62
USD
91500 92200 92200 92200 93000
GDP per capita PPP 64800.06
USD
65000 65800 65800 65800 66300
GDP From Agriculture 5445.00
NOK Million
5515 5553 5570 5565 5760
GDP From Construction 49785.00
NOK Million
49444 50090 50930 50880 51642
GDP From Manufacturing 51335.00
NOK Million
52884 52240 52516 52464 55236
GDP From Mining 1208.00
NOK Million
1222 1243 1236 1235 1277
GDP From Public Administration 48528.00
NOK Million
49221 49269 49644 49596 51409
GDP From Utilities 4981.00
NOK Million
4973 5038 5096 5091 5194
LABOUR Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.00
percent
3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.7
Employed Persons 2704.00
Thousand
2720 2732 2742 2752 2808
Unemployed Persons 79700.00
78420 77250 76200 75900 74250
Labor Force Participation Rate 70.70
percent
69.6 69.7 70.6 69.9 70.9
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.00
percent
0.99 0.98 0.96 0.95 0.87
Youth Unemployment Rate 9.70
percent
9.69 9.66 9.67 9.67 9.67
Productivity 120.11
Index Points
121 121 120 120 119
Labour Costs 134.20
Index Points
124 125 135 124 132
Job Vacancies 68400.00
63949 70788 74025 67824 68165
Wages in Manufacturing 101.60
Index Points
154 156 101 101 160
Wage Growth 2.42
percent
2.5 2.6 2.6 2.8 3.4
Population 5.30
Million
5.3 5.36 5.36 5.36 5.41
Retirement Age Women 62.00
62 62 62 62 62
Retirement Age Men 62.00
62 62 62 62 62
Part Time Employment 671.40
Thousand
660 668 673 662 665
Wages 45570.00
NOK/Month
45200 46000 46000 46000 46600
Employment Change 0.30
percent
0.39 0.34 0.34 0.35 0.32
Employment Rate 67.60
percent
67.22 67.33 68 67.96 68.01
Full Time Employment 1911.70
Thousand
1906 1897 1916 1927 1913
PRICES Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Inflation Rate 3.10
percent
2.9 1.9 2 1.8 1.5
Harmonised Consumer Prices 110.10
Index Points
110 110 111 112 113
Consumer Price Index CPI 109.30
Index Points
109 109 111 111 113
Core Consumer Prices 106.90
Index Points
107 107 108 109 111
Core Inflation Rate 1.60
percent
1.7 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.9
GDP Deflator 109.29
Index Points
111 112 112 112 112
Producer Prices 278.60
Index Points
289 262 272 280 309
Producer Prices Change 22.50
percent
19.5 7.5 4.5 4 3.2
Export Prices 155.10
Index Points
156 157 158 158 158
Import Prices 143.30
Index Points
145 145 145 145 145
Food Inflation 2.30
percent
2.4 2.6 2.5 2.8 3.4
Inflation Rate Mom -0.20
percent
0.5 0.17 0.19 0.19 0.4
CPI Housing Utilities 113.80
Index Points
112 114 115 117 116
CPI Transportation 109.50
Index Points
109 109 112 111 112
MONEY Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Interest Rate 0.75
percent
0.75 1 1 1 1.5
Interbank Rate 1.21
percent
1.14 1.39 1.39 1.39 1.89
Money Supply M0 74807.00
NOK Million
82670 81284 81510 81501 81450
Money Supply M1 2098775.00
NOK Million
2096344 2095976 2095941 2095940 2095941
Money Supply M2 2252391.00
NOK Million
2283659 2308250 2331123 2353990 2555478
Foreign Exchange Reserves 534609.00
NOK Million
534020 535479 534643 534781 534796
Loans to Private Sector 1720326.00
NOK Million
1706010 1685881 1669015 1654407 1586418
Deposit Interest Rate -0.25
percent
-0.25 0 0 0 0.5
Lending Rate 1.75
percent
1.75 2 2 2 2.5
Loan Growth 5.60
percent
5.36 5.12 4.93 4.78 4.19
Private Debt to GDP 284.60
percent
278 272 272 272 266
Central Bank Balance Sheet 9319711.00
NOK Millions
9519421 9704325 9868737 10035681 11465937
TRADE Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Balance of Trade 21119.00
NOK Million
19800 25400 6300 22859 14900
Exports 81012.08
NOK Million
79200 80100 75400 82156 85100
Imports 59893.47
NOK Million
59400 54700 69100 59297 70200
Current Account 80938.00
NOK Million
45800 55100 60200 29800 34200
Current Account to GDP 5.70
percent
7.7 8 8 8 8.5
External Debt 5222383.00
NOK Million
5220385 5221431 5220365 5221207 5220826
Terms of Trade 108.23
Index Points
108 109 109 109 109
Capital Flows 139446.00
NOK Million
56970 58521 74171 71172 67970
Crude Oil Production 1555.00
BBL/D/1K
1525 1524 1524 1524 1500
Terrorism Index 0.00
0 0 0 0 0
Weapons Sales 134.00
USD Million
178 166 154 142 183
Foreign Direct Investment -33665.00
NOK Million
-12205 -22263 -29800 -27315 -23926
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 36.20
percent
34 32 32 32 30
Government Budget 4.40
percent of GDP
4.7 4.9 4.9 4.9 5.1
Government Budget Value 29995.00
NOK Million
1795 -5890 6008 28458 -11660
Government Spending 198133.00
NOK Million
201969 201510 202690 202492 210950
Government Spending to GDP 50.30
percent
50 49.7 49.7 50.3 49.4
Government Revenues 324043.00
NOK Million
328937 346138 347740 335377 344435
Government Debt 629080.00
NOK Million
663053 707373 652834 690713 613234
Fiscal Expenditure 294048.00
NOK Million
326592 352028 341732 306919 356095
Military Expenditure 6329.60
USD Million
6380 6395 6410 6425 6617
Asylum Applications 280.00
persons
873 923 927 926 926
BUSINESS Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Business Confidence 8.90
Index Points
9.5 8 8.6 9.1 5.1
Manufacturing PMI 56.00
54.5 54 54 53.2 52.5
Industrial Production 0.70
percent
4 4.1 3.8 0.34 2.5
Industrial Production Mom -1.50
percent
0.2 0.6 0.4 0.04 0.4
Manufacturing Production 1.50
percent
4.5 4.2 4 2.39 3
Capacity Utilization 79.20
percent
78.93 78.78 78.77 78.76 78.73
Changes in Inventories 35634.00
NOK Million
27726 27131 27607 28140 28371
Bankruptcies 419.00
Companies and Individuals
393 395 395 395 395
Car Registrations 14055.00
14455 14440 14464 14460 14461
Internet Speed 23539.08
KBps
29776 30644 31522 32277 38804
IP Addresses 2663340.00
IP
2715078 2718238 2718019 2719409 2719570
Leading Economic Index 0.60
percent
0.68 0.76 0.68 0.77 0.72
Mining Production -11.70
percent
-1.71 0.16 1.01 1.36 1.6
Steel Production 50.50
Thousand Tonnes
45.48 46.89 47.24 47.21 47.22
Competitiveness Index 78.16
Points
78.66 78.66 78.66 78.66 81.16
Competitiveness Rank 16.00
16 16 16 16 16
Ease of Doing Business 7.00
7 8 8 8 8
Electricity Production 11198.00
Gigawatt-hour
14046 12674 10815 11985 12487
Corruption Index 85.00
Points
85 85 85 85 85
Corruption Rank 3.00
3 3 3 3 3
CONSUMER Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 16.40
Index Points
17 14 14 12.52 17
Retail Sales MoM -0.70
percent
0.2 1.1 -2 0.5 0.6
Retail Sales YoY 0.70
percent
2.5 2.2 2.4 2.5 2
Consumer Spending 369614.00
NOK Million
373924 373386 378115 377746 390552
Disposable Personal Income 300593.00
NOK Million
292547 277844 298137 279952 293381
Personal Savings 6.60
percent
6.9 7 7.2 7.1 8.7
Consumer Credit 3416168.00
NOK Million
3465112 3514799 3564268 3613610 4052200
Gasoline Prices 1.96
USD/Liter
1.83 1.73 1.63 1.52 1.29
Household Spending -1.40
percent
0.9 -0.7 0.4 0.5 0.5
Households Debt To GDP 101.60
percent of GDP
102 102 102 102 102
Households Debt To Income 197.54
percent
199 200 200 201 205
HOUSING Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Housing Index 115.10
Index Points
114 114 114 114 114
Housing Starts 2451.00
units
2584 2600 2602 2602 2603
New Home Sales 26320.00
26234 26189 26159 26136 26077
Building Permits 2536.00
2605 2633 2635 2634 2634
Home Ownership Rate 82.60
percent
83.31 83.48 83.65 83.82 84.12
TAXES Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 24.00
percent
24 24 24 24 24
Personal Income Tax Rate 38.52
percent
38.52 38.52 38.52 38.52 38.52
Sales Tax Rate 25.00
percent
25 25 25 25 25
Social Security Rate 22.30
percent
22.3 22.3 22.3 22.3 22.3
Social Security Rate For Companies 14.10
percent
14.1 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.1
Social Security Rate For Employees 8.20
percent
8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2
CLIMATE Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Temperature -2.91
celsius
-3.9 -7.82 3.82 2.37 0.12
Precipitation 163.15
mm
100 78.35 90.37 90.37 85.12



Norway - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook