Pakistan - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Pakistan including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Pakistan economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.90 6 6 5.9 5.9 5.7 percent
Inflation Rate 5.84 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.6 percent
Interest Rate 7.50 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 8 percent
Balance of Trade -368292.00 -564700 -603450 -630050 -662750 -625500 PKR Million
Government Debt to GDP 67.20 67.6 67.6 68.2 68.2 70 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 123.09
 123 124 125 125 129
Stock Market 41320.13
points		 41603 41051 40503 39967 37885
Government Bond 10Y 10.00
percent		 10.17 10.33 10.5 10.68 11.4
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Annual Growth Rate 5.79
percent		 5.2 5.2 5.4 5.4 4.5
GDP 304.95
USD Billion		 315 315 335 335 360
GDP Constant Prices 12416918.00
PKR Million		 12360669 13062598 13087432 13087432 14387537
Gross National Product 13081028.00
PKR Million		 13051083 13761241 13787404 13787404 15157044
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 1975936.00
PKR Million		 1732926 2078685 2082637 2082637 2289526
GDP per capita 1222.52
USD		 1290 1290 1410 1410 1520
GDP per capita PPP 5034.70
USD		 5135 5135 5269 5269 5328
GDP From Agriculture 2284561.00
PKR Million		 2322908 2403358 2407927 2407927 2647131
GDP From Construction 320769.00
PKR Million		 309450 337449 338091 338091 371676
GDP From Manufacturing 1572948.00
PKR Million		 1571866 1654741 1657887 1657887 1822582
GDP From Mining 339747.00
PKR Million		 352674 357414 358093 358093 393666
GDP From Services 6970204.00
PKR Million		 6919150 7332655 7346595 7346595 8076406
GDP From Transport 1551714.00
PKR Million		 1570506 1632403 1635507 1635507 1797978
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.90
percent		 6 6 5.9 5.9 5.7
Unemployed Persons 3620.00
Thousand 		3636 3940 3635 3606 4070
Employed Persons 57420.00
Thousand 		58000 58000 58500 58500 62000
Population 200.16
Million		 217 217 221 221 225
Living Wage Family 28800.00
PKR/Month		 30000 30000 31000 31000 32000
Living Wage Individual 14400.00
PKR/Month		 15000 15000 17000 17000 18000
Wages High Skilled 49800.00
PKR/Month		 50000 50000 52000 52000 54000
Wages Low Skilled 20700.00
PKR/Month		 21200 21200 21600 21600 22000
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 5.84
percent		 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.6
Consumer Price Index CPI 229.27
Index Points		 231 234 234 241 266
Core Inflation Rate 7.70
percent		 7.8 7.6 7.1 6.8 7.3
GDP Deflator 262.55
Index Points		 265 265 280 280 300
Producer Prices 241.93
Index Points		 240 244 250 261 305
Export Prices 751.50
Index Points		 725 731 733 735 740
Import Prices 1286.30
Index Points		 1240 1250 1315 1350 1450
Inflation Rate Mom 0.21
percent		 0.3 -0.2 0.4 0.5 0.2
Food Inflation 3.30
percent		 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.8 3.5
CPI Transportation 204.74
Index Points		 187 191 199 207 217
Producer Prices Change 11.00
percent		 10.1 10.4 11.1 11.3 12
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 7.50
percent		 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 8
Interbank Rate 7.85
percent		 7.85 7.85 7.85 7.85 8.35
Money Supply M0 5395001.00
PKR Million		 5410000 5420000 5450000 5470000 5750000
Money Supply M1 13040867.00
PKR Million		 13500000 14000000 14500000 14800000 16400000
Money Supply M2 15606763.00
PKR Million		 15900000 16000000 16700000 17100000 19500000
Money Supply M3 19282880.68
PKR Million		 19350000 19500000 20500000 20900000 21500000
Deposit Interest Rate 4.48
percent		 4.48 4.48 4.48 4.48 4.98
Loans To Private Sector 4642438.00
PKR Million		 4670000 4675000 4710000 4725000 5000000
Foreign Exchange Reserves 16891.10
USD Million		 17100 16950 17250 17350 17200
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -368292.00
PKR Million		 -564700 -603450 -630050 -662750 -625500
Exports 249657.00
PKR Million		 20300 21550 24950 23250 24500
Imports 617949.00
PKR Million		 585000 625000 655000 686000 650000
Current Account -5798.00
USD Million		 -4200 -4500 -4300 -4200 -1200
Current Account to GDP -8.20
percent		 -5.7 -5.8 -5.6 -5.2 -5.2
External Debt 95097.00
USD Million		 97000 100000 102000 105000 123000
Terms of Trade 58.40
Index Points		 58.47 58.48 55.74 54.44 51.03
Remittances 5017.00
USD Million		 4900 5000 5050 5080 5200
Gold Reserves 64.60
Tonnes		 64.6 64.6 64.6 64.6 64.6
Capital Flows -3913.00
USD Million		 -1900 -2100 -1800 -1750 -980
Crude Oil Production 88.00
BBL/D/1K		 93 94 95 95 98
Foreign Direct Investment 3434.90
USD Million		 3500 3500 3900 3900 4100
Terrorism Index 8.40
 8.2 8.2 8.1 8.1 8
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 67.20
percent		 67.6 67.6 68.2 68.2 70
Government Budget -5.80
percent of GDP		 -4.2 -4.2 -3.7 -3.7 -2
Government Budget Value -1863.80
PKR Billion		 -1750 -1750 -1450 -1450 -1400
Government Spending 1587677.00
PKR Million		 1478732 1670236 1673412 1673412 1839648
Government Revenues 4936.70
PKR Billion		 5350 5350 5900 5900 6100
Government Debt 24211.00
PKR Billion		 24000 24400 24900 25150 27000
Fiscal Expenditure 6800.50
PKR Billion		 7100 7100 7350 7350 7500
Military Expenditure 10378.20
USD Million		 10600 10600 11000 11000 13000
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Industrial Production 0.78
percent		 4.2 4.5 5.2 5.3 6.2
Manufacturing Production 0.50
percent		 5.5 5.6 6.1 6.3 7
Changes in Inventories 209611.00
PKR Million		 212000 212000 214000 214000 221000
Internet Speed 2326.59
KBps		 2680 2734 2788 2841 3343
IP Addresses 2921934.00
IP		 3403256 3493069 3555036 3637399 4364768
Industrial Production Mom -4.33
percent		 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8
Competitiveness Index 3.67
Points		 3.67 3.67 3.8 3.8 3.8
Competitiveness Rank 115.00
 115 115 114 114 110
Cement Production 2639.00
Thousands of Tonnes 		3000 3200 3300 3350 3700
Ease of Doing Business 147.00
 148 148 149 149 150
Electricity Production 7976.00
Gigawatt-hour		 8150 9800 7180 7070 12300
Corruption Index 32.00
Points		 33 33 34 34 35
Corruption Rank 117.00
 117 117 116 116 115
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 44.81
Index Points		 45.2 46.9 46.5 47.2 45.8
Consumer Spending 10626857.00
PKR Million		 9643956 11179454 11200707 11200707 12313386
Consumer Credit 612329.00
PKR Million		 630000 654000 678000 701000 76500
Gasoline Prices 0.77
USD/Liter		 0.78 0.74 0.7 0.66 0.52
Private Sector Credit 5537753.00
PKR Million		 5570000 5610000 5690000 5720000 6800000
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 31.00
percent		 31 31 32 32 32
Personal Income Tax Rate 20.00
percent		 20 20 20 20 20
Sales Tax Rate 17.00
percent		 17 17 17 17 17
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Precipitation 6.35
mm		 43.14 9.27 28.45 26.4 25.64
Temperature 10.83
celsius		 27.86 15.78 12.42 27.06 21.11