The economy of Peru stalled on an annual basis in April 2019, slowing from a 3.16 percent expansion in the previous month. It was the slowest growth rate since July 2009, as manufacturing activity (-13.2 percent compared to 3.71 percent in March) and mining (-2.87 percent compared to 0.15 percent) shrank. Additionally, output fell further in fisheries (-63 percent compared to -7.42 percent). Also, growth eased in agriculture & livestock (3.04 percent from 5.31 percent); transport & storage (1.24 percent from 2.08 percent); telecommunications (6.18 percent from 6.64 percent); and finance & insurance (3.50 percent from 4 percent). In contrast, construction activity expanded 8.73 percent, faster than a 5.77 percent growth in the prior month and restaurants & lodging advanced 4.12 percent (vs 3.06 percent in March). Leading Economic Index in Peru averaged 4.73 percent from 2008 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 14.08 percent in April of 2008 and a record low of -2.86 percent in June of 2009.
Leading Economic Index in Peru is expected to be 2.50 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Leading Economic Index in Peru to stand at 3.70 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Peru GDP YoY is projected to trend around 4.20 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.