Poland - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Poland including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Poland economy.

Overview	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
GDP Growth Rate	1.60	0.8	0.8	0.7	0.7	0.5	percent
Unemployment Rate	6.10	5.6	5.4	5.2	5.1	5.1	percent
Inflation Rate	2.00	1.8	2.2	2.2	2.3	2.3	percent
Interest Rate	1.50	1.5	1.75	1.75	2	2.5	percent
Balance of Trade	98.00	200	500	300	500	300	EUR Million
Government Debt to GDP	50.60	49.4	49.4	47.6	47.6	45.1	percent


MARKETS	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Currency	3.68	3.86	3.95	4.05	4.14	4.55
Stock Market	57303.81 points	54782	53033	51341	49706	43662
Government Bond 10Y	3.12 percent	3.44	3.59	3.74	3.9	4.6

GDP	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
GDP Growth Rate	1.60 percent	0.8	0.8	0.7	0.7	0.5
GDP Annual Growth Rate	5.20 percent	4.4	4.3	4	3.8	3.2
GDP	524.51 USD Billion	551	551	564	564	575
GDP Constant Prices	476489.50 PLN Million	498084	586919	495549	484637	627506
Gross Fixed Capital Formation	81915.30 PLN Million	83717	148186	85192	78940	158434
GDP per capita	15751.23 USD	16200	16200	16700	16700	17200
GDP per capita PPP	27216.44 USD	26700	26700	27500	27500	28300
Gdp From Agriculture	10625.20 PLN Million	9334	11082	11050	9862	11848
Gdp From Construction	44425.60 PLN Million	37740	46336	46203	31234	49540
Gdp From Manufacturing	111187.40 PLN Million	85685	115968	115635	79974	123988

LABOUR	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Unemployment Rate	6.10 percent	5.6	5.4	5.2	5.1	5.1
Employed Persons	16344.00 Thousand	16900	17100	17200	17300	18000
Unemployed Persons	969.04 Thousand	995	991	989	989	980
Long Term Unemployment Rate	1.10 percent	1.6	1.6	1.5	1.6	1.7
Youth Unemployment Rate	10.90 percent	12.6	12.5	12.2	12	10
Labour Costs	111.80 Index Points	116	103	106	105	106
Productivity	117.50 Index Points	115	139	114	118	146
Job Vacancies	112.10 Thousand	115	75	115	130	85
Wages	4622.84 PLN/Month	4650	4700	4750	4650	4850
Wages in Manufacturing	4534.79 PLN/Month	4500	4600	4600	4550	4750
Wage Growth	7.50 percent	6.1	5.1	4.5	4.2	3
Minimum Wages	502.75 EUR/Month	525	525	560	560	625
Population	37.98 Million	37.98	37.98	38	38	38.06
Retirement Age Women	60.00	60	60	60	60	60
Retirement Age Men	65.00	65	65	65	65	65
Labor Force Participation Rate	56.00 percent	56.5	56.4	56.3	56.6	56.2
Part Time Employment	1044.50 Thousand	1150	1170	1190	1200	1320
Employment Change	3.70 percent	3.4	3.2	3	2.8	2
Employment Rate	66.60 percent	66.7	66.8	66.9	66.9	67.5
Full Time Employment	14965.10 Thousand	15600	15700	15800	15900	16900

PRICES	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Inflation Rate	2.00 percent	1.8	2.2	2.2	2.3	2.3
Inflation Rate Mom	0.10 percent	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.4	0.5
Consumer Price Index CPI	174.80 Index Points	174	177	177	179	186
Core Consumer Prices	100.62 Index Points	102	102	102	102	102
Core Inflation Rate	0.60 percent	1.5	1.9	2	2	2.2
GDP Deflator	110.32 Index Points	113	115	116	117	126
Producer Prices	104.90 Index Points	106	105	106	107	110
Producer Prices Change	3.70 percent	3.2	2.2	2.3	2	2.2
Export Prices	100.80 Index Points	102	102	102	102	103
Import Prices	99.80 Index Points	102	103	103	102	103
Food Inflation	2.70 percent	3	2.6	2.4	2.5	2.3
Harmonised Consumer Prices	102.80 Index Points	103	104	104	105	110

MONEY	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Interest Rate	1.50 percent	1.5	1.75	1.75	2	2.5
Interbank Rate	1.60 percent	1.6	1.85	1.85	2.1	2.6
Money Supply M0	229477.30 PLN Million	252000	262000	265000	269000	295000
Money Supply M1	912150.43 PLN Million	975000	1046000	1091000	1141000	1400000
Money Supply M2	1331452.95 PLN Million	1690000	1750000	1810000	1870000	2260000
Money Supply M3	1346708.10 PLN Million	1820000	1880000	1950000	2030000	2450000
Foreign Exchange Reserves	108969.50 USD Million	112300	114000	114000	115000	125000
Banks Balance Sheet	1909576.40 PLN Million	2150000	2250000	2290000	2330000	2620000
Deposit Interest Rate	0.50 percent	0.5	0.75	0.75	1	1.5
Private Debt to GDP	121.50 percent	119	119	115	115	111
Cash Reserve Ratio	3.50 percent	3.5	3.5	3.5	3.5	3.5
Central Bank Balance Sheet	418752.60 PLN Million	438000	444000	451000	462000	554000

TRADE	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Balance of Trade	98.00 EUR Million	200	500	300	500	300
Exports	17251.00 EUR Million	17700	15600	18900	18100	17200
Imports	17153.00 EUR Million	17500	15100	18600	17600	16900
Current Account	42.00 EUR Million	250	-37	-200	-480	220
Current Account to GDP	0.30 percent	-0.4	-0.4	0.5	0.5	1
External Debt	392174.00 USD Million	376000	379000	381000	383000	397000
Terms of Trade	101.00 Index Points	99.61	98.93	99.03	99.51	100
Capital Flows	765.00 EUR Million	-420	-560	-320	910	-270
Foreign Direct Investment	176005.00 EUR Million	186800	186800	190700	190700	194300
Remittances	684.00 EUR Million	700	685	710	720	770
Gold Reserves	103.00 Tonnes	103	103	103	103	103
Terrorism Index	0.38	0.38	0.38	0.38	0.38	0.38
Weapons Sales	3.00 USD Million	5	5	5	5	5
Crude Oil Production	21.00 BBL/D/1K	21	21	21	21	21

GOVERNMENT	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Government Debt to GDP	50.60 percent	49.4	49.4	47.6	47.6	45.1
Government Budget	-1.70 percent of GDP	-1.1	-1.1	-0.6	-0.6	-0.2
Government Budget Value	9585.40 PLN Million	-3000	-10700	-1600	-2900	-11600
Government Spending	83726.30 PLN Million	83499	111112	87075	87867	118795
Government Spending to GDP	41.20 percent	41	41	41	41	41
Government Revenues	154008.60 PLN Million	259000	345000	87500	175100	367000
Government Debt	948739.96 PLN Million	991000	998000	1005000	1029000	1152000
Fiscal Expenditure	144423.20 PLN Million	262000	355700	89100	178000	378600
Military Expenditure	9518.90 USD Million	9948	10211	10270	10329	10677
Asylum Applications	175.00 persons	220	370	290	300	340

BUSINESS	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Business Confidence	13.30 Index Points	11	10	9	9	5
Manufacturing PMI	54.20	53.8	53.6	53	53.4	53
Industrial Production	6.80 percent	5.1	4.9	4.5	4.4	3.2
Industrial Production Mom	1.90 percent	-0.3	0.5	-0.4	0.5	0.4
Manufacturing Production	5.50 percent	4.5	4.4	4	3.7	2.5
Capacity Utilization	82.80 percent	82.7	82.8	82.9	83	84
New Orders	104.60 Index Points	106	104	102	107	105
Changes in Inventories	7111.00 PLN Million	7707	2720	7696	9119	2050
Car Production	43.40 Thousand Units	40	29	62	66	40
Car Registrations	42354.00	38200	45900	51500	40500	53900
Internet Speed	12609.78 KBps	12477	12550	12518	12502	12584
IP Addresses	6362131.00 IP	6261122	6254363	6248466	6242679	6204256
Steel Production	855.00 Thousand Tonnes	880	578	890	700	584
Mining Production	-2.20 percent	2.2	1.9	2.5	2.2	1.3
Cement Production	1942.00 Thousands of Tonnes	1720	1140	1510	1650	1360
Competitiveness Index	4.59 Points	4.59	4.59	4.64	4.64	4.68
Competitiveness Rank	39.00	39	39	38	38	37
Ease of Doing Business	27.00	26	26	25	25	24
Electricity Production	12667.00 Gigawatt-hour	13600	15100	14600	13200	15400
Corporate Profits	42970.00 PLN Million	132400	166000	49100	99100	179000
Corruption Index	60.00 Points	61	61	62	62	63
Corruption Rank	36.00	35	35	34	34	33

CONSUMER	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Consumer Confidence	6.10 Index Points	4	3.8	3.6	3.2	1.5
Retail Sales MoM	-0.10 percent	0.4	-0.2	0.4	-0.4	0.4
Retail Sales YoY	10.30 percent	6.5	5.9	4.5	4	2.5
Consumer Spending	287005.30 PLN Million	297577	291324	298486	287367	311470
Personal Savings	2.10 percent	2	14.5	-8.1	3	15.7
Consumer Credit	700612.36 PLN Million	711000	717000	722000	727000	758000
Gasoline Prices	1.36 USD/Liter	1.29	1.22	1.15	1.09	0.61
Households Debt To Gdp	35.10 percent of GDP	34.9	34.9	34.4	34.4	34.1
Households Debt To Income	59.94 percent	56.7	56.7	56.2	56.2	56

HOUSING	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Construction Output	23.30 percent	9.5	7.8	6.2	5.8	3.2
Housing Index	109.48 Index Points	110	110	112	113	115
Building Permits	37581.00	91400	118200	27900	61500	132200
Home Ownership Rate	83.40 percent	83	83	82.7	82.7	82.5

TAXES	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Corporate Tax Rate	19.00 percent	19	19	19	19	19
Personal Income Tax Rate	32.00 percent	32	32	32	32	32
Sales Tax Rate	23.00 percent	23	23	23	23	23
Social Security Rate	36.12 percent	36.12	36.12	36.12	36.12	36.12
Social Security Rate For Companies	22.41 percent	22.41	22.41	22.41	22.41	22.41
Social Security Rate For Employees	13.71 percent	13.71	13.71	13.71	13.71	13.71

CLIMATE	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Precipitation	24.66 mm	70.48	42.83	32.92	50.22	51.92
Temperature	4.28 celsius	16.53	2.85	-1.72	11.32	7.66

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