Poland - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Poland including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Poland economy.

Overview	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
GDP Growth Rate	1.00	0.8	0.8	0.7	0.7	0.5	percent
Unemployment Rate	5.90	5.6	5.4	5.2	5.1	5.1	percent
Inflation Rate	2.00	1.8	2.2	2.2	2.3	2.3	percent
Interest Rate	1.50	1.5	1.75	1.75	2	2.5	percent
Balance of Trade	-432.00	200	500	300	500	300	EUR Million
Government Debt to GDP	50.60	49.4	49.4	47.6	47.6	45.1	percent


MARKETS	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Currency	3.65	3.7	3.73	3.76	3.79	3.91
Stock Market	58231.57 points	60652	59977	59315	58652	56089
Government Bond 10Y	3.22 percent	3.23	3.28	3.33	3.38	3.57

GDP	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
GDP Growth Rate	1.00 percent	0.8	0.8	0.7	0.7	0.5
GDP Annual Growth Rate	5.10 percent	4.4	4.3	4	3.8	3.2
GDP	524.51 USD Billion	551	551	564	564	575
GDP Constant Prices	500982.30 PLN Million	498084	586919	495549	520020	627506
Gross Fixed Capital Formation	80831.60 PLN Million	83717	148186	85192	83903	158434
GDP per capita	15751.23 USD	16200	16200	16700	16700	17200
GDP per capita PPP	27216.44 USD	26700	26700	27500	27500	28300
Gdp From Agriculture	9864.20 PLN Million	9334	11082	10952	10239	11848
Gdp From Construction	37888.60 PLN Million	37740	46336	23356	39328	49540
Gdp From Manufacturing	92144.40 PLN Million	85685	115968	95830	95646	123988

LABOUR	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Unemployment Rate	5.90 percent	5.6	5.4	5.2	5.1	5.1
Employed Persons	16565.00 Thousand	16900	17100	17200	17300	18000
Unemployed Persons	959.50 Thousand	995	991	989	989	980
Long Term Unemployment Rate	1.10 percent	1.6	1.6	1.5	1.6	1.7
Youth Unemployment Rate	10.10 percent	12.6	12.5	12.2	12	10
Labour Costs	111.80 Index Points	116	103	106	105	106
Productivity	122.70 Index Points	115	139	114	118	146
Job Vacancies	106.00 Thousand	115	75	115	130	85
Wages	4521.08 PLN/Month	4650	4700	4750	4650	4850
Wages in Manufacturing	4688.16 PLN/Month	4500	4600	4600	4550	4750
Wage Growth	6.80 percent	6.1	5.1	4.5	4.2	3
Minimum Wages	480.20 EUR/Month	480	480	560	560	615
Population	37.98 Million	37.98	37.98	38	38	38.06
Retirement Age Women	60.00	60	60	60	60	60
Retirement Age Men	65.00	65	65	65	65	65
Labor Force Participation Rate	56.50 percent	56.5	56.4	56.3	56.6	56.2
Part Time Employment	1044.50 Thousand	1150	1170	1190	1200	1320
Employment Change	3.40 percent	3.4	3.2	3	2.8	2
Employment Rate	66.60 percent	66.7	66.8	66.9	66.9	67.5
Full Time Employment	14965.10 Thousand	15600	15700	15800	15900	16900

PRICES	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Inflation Rate	2.00 percent	1.8	2.2	2.2	2.3	2.3
Inflation Rate Mom	0.00 percent	0.3	0.4	0.3	0.4	0.5
Consumer Price Index CPI	174.50 Index Points	174	177	177	179	186
Core Consumer Prices	100.92 Index Points	101	101	101	102	102
Core Inflation Rate	0.90 percent	0.7	1	1.2	1.5	2.2
GDP Deflator	109.89 Index Points	113	115	116	117	126
Producer Prices	105.50 Index Points	106	105	106	108	110
Producer Prices Change	3.00 percent	3.2	2.2	2.3	2	2.2
Export Prices	98.70 Index Points	102	102	102	102	103
Import Prices	100.60 Index Points	102	103	103	102	103
Food Inflation	2.10 percent	3	2.6	2.4	2.5	2.3
Harmonised Consumer Prices	102.40 Index Points	103	104	104	105	110

MONEY	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Interest Rate	1.50 percent	1.5	1.75	1.75	2	2.5
Interbank Rate	1.62 percent	1.62	1.87	1.87	2.12	2.62
Money Supply M0	257445.90 PLN Million	252000	262000	265000	269000	295000
Money Supply M1	931495.36 PLN Million	975000	1046000	1091000	1141000	1400000
Money Supply M2	1343164.22 PLN Million	1690000	1750000	1810000	1870000	2260000
Money Supply M3	1356806.00 PLN Million	1820000	1880000	1950000	2030000	2450000
Foreign Exchange Reserves	113263.00 USD Million	112300	114000	114000	115000	125000
Banks Balance Sheet	1948745.10 PLN Million	2150000	2250000	2290000	2330000	2620000
Deposit Interest Rate	0.50 percent	0.5	0.75	0.75	1	1.5
Private Debt to GDP	121.50 percent	119	119	115	115	111
Cash Reserve Ratio	3.50 percent	3.5	3.5	3.5	3.5	3.5
Central Bank Balance Sheet	430751.00 PLN Million	438000	444000	451000	462000	554000

TRADE	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Balance of Trade	-432.00 EUR Million	200	500	300	500	300
Exports	17115.00 EUR Million	17700	15600	18900	18100	17200
Imports	17547.00 EUR Million	17500	15100	18600	17600	16900
Current Account	-809.00 EUR Million	250	-37	-200	-480	220
Current Account to GDP	0.30 percent	-0.4	-0.4	0.5	0.5	1
External Debt	392174.00 USD Million	376000	379000	381000	383000	397000
Terms of Trade	97.40 Index Points	99.61	98.93	99.03	99.51	100
Capital Flows	2568.00 EUR Million	-420	-560	-320	910	-270
Foreign Direct Investment	176005.00 EUR Million	186800	186800	190700	190700	194300
Remittances	674.00 EUR Million	700	685	710	720	770
Gold Reserves	103.00 Tonnes	103	103	103	103	103
Terrorism Index	0.38	0.38	0.38	0.38	0.38	0.38
Weapons Sales	3.00 USD Million	5	5	5	5	5
Crude Oil Production	21.00 BBL/D/1K	21	21	21	21	21

GOVERNMENT	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Government Debt to GDP	50.60 percent	49.4	49.4	47.6	47.6	45.1
Government Budget	-1.70 percent of GDP	-1.1	-1.1	-0.6	-0.6	-0.2
Government Budget Value	-858.70 PLN Million	-3000	-10700	-1600	-2900	-11600
Government Spending	90974.00 PLN Million	83499	111112	87075	94431	118795
Government Spending to GDP	41.20 percent	41	41	41	41	41
Government Revenues	212154.40 PLN Million	259000	345000	87500	175100	367000
Government Debt	956144.59 PLN Million	991000	998000	1005000	1029000	1152000
Fiscal Expenditure	213013.10 PLN Million	262000	355700	89100	178000	378600
Military Expenditure	9518.90 USD Million	9948	10211	10270	10329	10677
Asylum Applications	175.00 persons	220	370	290	300	340

BUSINESS	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Business Confidence	9.90 Index Points	11	10	9	9	5
Manufacturing PMI	51.40	53.8	53.6	53	53.4	53
Industrial Production	5.00 percent	5.1	4.9	4.5	4.4	3.2
Industrial Production Mom	0.00 percent	-0.3	0.5	-0.4	0.5	0.4
Manufacturing Production	5.40 percent	4.5	4.4	4	3.7	2.5
Capacity Utilization	83.50 percent	82.7	82.8	82.9	83	84
New Orders	111.50 Index Points	106	104	102	107	105
Changes in Inventories	12257.60 PLN Million	9360	2720	9441	11683	2050
Car Production	32.10 Thousand Units	40	29	62	66	40
Car Registrations	46090.00	38200	45900	51500	40500	53900
Internet Speed	12609.78 KBps	12477	12550	12518	12502	12584
IP Addresses	6362131.00 IP	6261122	6254363	6248466	6242679	6204256
Steel Production	870.00 Thousand Tonnes	880	578	890	700	584
Mining Production	4.80 percent	2.2	1.9	2.5	2.2	1.3
Cement Production	1950.00 Thousands of Tonnes	1720	1140	1510	1650	1360
Competitiveness Index	4.59 Points	4.59	4.59	4.64	4.64	4.68
Competitiveness Rank	39.00	39	39	38	38	37
Ease of Doing Business	27.00	26	26	25	25	24
Electricity Production	14185.00 Gigawatt-hour	13600	15100	14600	13200	15400
Corporate Profits	88642.50 PLN Million	132400	166000	49100	99100	179000
Corruption Index	60.00 Points	61	61	62	62	63
Corruption Rank	36.00	35	35	34	34	33

CONSUMER	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Consumer Confidence	6.20 Index Points	4	3.8	3.6	3.2	1.5
Retail Sales MoM	0.20 percent	0.4	-0.2	0.4	-0.4	0.4
Retail Sales YoY	9.30 percent	6.5	5.9	4.5	4	2.5
Consumer Spending	295128.40 PLN Million	297577	291324	298486	306343	311470
Personal Savings	-9.40 percent	2	14.5	-8.1	3	15.7
Consumer Credit	705961.79 PLN Million	711000	717000	722000	727000	758000
Gasoline Prices	1.41 USD/Liter	1.44	1.36	1.28	1.21	0.96
Households Debt To Gdp	35.10 percent of GDP	34.9	34.9	34.4	34.4	34.1
Households Debt To Income	59.96 percent	56.7	56.7	56.2	56.2	56

HOUSING	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Construction Output	16.60 percent	9.5	7.8	6.2	5.8	3.2
Housing Index	109.48 Index Points	110	110	112	113	115
Building Permits	55258.00	91400	118200	27900	61500	132200
Home Ownership Rate	84.20 percent	83	83	82.7	82.7	82.5

TAXES	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Corporate Tax Rate	19.00 percent	19	19	19	19	19
Personal Income Tax Rate	32.00 percent	32	32	32	32	32
Sales Tax Rate	23.00 percent	23	23	23	23	23
Social Security Rate	36.12 percent	36.12	36.12	36.12	36.12	36.12
Social Security Rate For Companies	22.41 percent	22.41	22.41	22.41	22.41	22.41
Social Security Rate For Employees	13.71 percent	13.71	13.71	13.71	13.71	13.71

CLIMATE	Actual	Q3/18	Q4/18	Q1/19	Q2/19	2020
Precipitation	24.66 mm	70.48	42.83	32.92	50.22	51.92
Temperature	4.28 celsius	16.53	2.85	-1.72	11.32	7.66

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