Retail sales in Poland increased 6.5 percent year-on-year in February of 2019, following a 6.6 percent rise in January and beating market expectations of a 6.3 percent gain. Sales rose less for motor vehicles (0.9 percent from 1.7 percent in January); fuels (6.9 percent from 8.7 percent); food, beverages and tobacco (3.7 percent from 6.1 percent); pharmaceuticals and cosmetics (9.7 percent from 11 percent); and newspapers and books (2.8 percent from 3.6 percent) and fell for clothing and footwear (-0.3 percent from 3.9 percent). On the other hand, sales rose faster for furniture, appliances and electronics (14.3 percent from 11.5 percent). On a monthly basis, retail sales went down 3.1 percent after a 19.1 percent fall in January. Retail Sales YoY in Poland averaged 7.23 percent from 2001 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 30.60 percent in April of 2004 and a record low of -14.40 percent in April of 2005.
Retail Sales YoY in Poland is expected to be 4.50 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in Poland to stand at 3.20 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Poland Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 2.80 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.