Retail sales in Poland increased 5.3 percent year-on-year in June of 2019, easing from a 7.3 percent in the previous month and above market expectations of 4.9 percent. Sales slowed for motor vehicles and parts (1.7 percent from 12.6 percent in May); food, beverages & tobacco (3.3 percent from 5.2 percent); pharmaceuticals and cosmetics (10.2 percent from 16.6 percent) and furniture, appliances and electronics (9.2 percent from 17.4 percent). Also, sales fell for newspapers and books (-0.4 percent from 1.4 percent) and others (-2.3 percent from 3.4 percent). On the other hand, sales advanced faster for fuels (5.8 percent from 4 percent) and rebounded for clothing & footwear (11.2 percent from -1.9 percent). On a monthly basis, retail trade went up 1.5 percent, after a 3 percent fall in May. Retail Sales YoY in Poland averaged 7.23 percent from 2001 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 30.60 percent in April of 2004 and a record low of -14.40 percent in April of 2005.
Retail Sales YoY in Poland is expected to be 4.40 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in Poland to stand at 3.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Poland Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 2.80 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.