Romania - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Romania including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Romania economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.10 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 percent
Unemployment Rate 4.60 4.8 4.8 5 5.1 5.4 percent
Inflation Rate 5.40 4.9 3.8 3.2 3.5 2.5 percent
Interest Rate 2.50 2.5 2.75 2.5 2.5 2.5 percent
Balance of Trade -1270.30 -1030 -1670 -890 -1630 -1400 EUR Million
Government Debt to GDP 35.00 36.2 36.2 35.4 35.4 35 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 3.97
4.08 4.16 4.23 4.31 4.65
Stock Market 7898.09
points
7769 7541 7320 7104 6305
Government Bond 10Y 5.06
percent
5.46 5.65 5.84 6.05 6.92
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.10
percent
0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6
GDP Annual Growth Rate 4.00
percent
5.1 4.5 4.2 3.8 3.2
GDP 211.80
USD Billion
186 186 192 192 200
GDP Constant Prices 40042.90
RON Million
40843 41729 41725 40445 44658
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 10731.20
RON Million
10887 11313 11182 10773 12107
GDP per capita 10932.33
USD
11000 11000 12000 12000 13000
GDP per capita PPP 23313.20
USD
23968 24467 23361 23361 26356
GDP From Agriculture 2896.30
RON Million
3250 2467 3018 3009 2641
GDP From Construction 2136.50
RON Million
2156 2218 2226 2107 2373
GDP From Manufacturing 8944.30
RON Million
9126 9567 9320 9126 10239
GDP From Public Administration 1480.10
RON Million
1456 1518 1542 1523 1624
GDP From Services 11326.80
RON Million
11071 11323 11803 11099 12117
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.60
percent
4.8 4.8 5 5.1 5.4
Employed Persons 4920.70
Thousand
4932 4933 4933 4933 4933
Unemployed Persons 304.00
Thousand
304 305 304 304 304
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.90
percent
1.78 1.74 1.73 1.71 1.64
Youth Unemployment Rate 16.80
percent
17.32 17.36 17.35 17.35 17.35
Labour Costs 142.60
Index Points
118 118 118 118 118
Job Vacancies 1.20
percent
1.19 1.16 1.19 1.16 1.16
Wages 4494.00
RON/Month
3800 4100 4200 5607 4800
Wages in Manufacturing 3913.00
RON/Month
3400 3420 3500 4749 3650
Minimum Wages 407.86
EUR/Month
408 408 450 445 500
Population 19.52
Million
19.52 19.52 19.45 19.39 19.36
Retirement Age Women 60.92
60.92 60.92 61.17 61 61.42
Retirement Age Men 65.00
65 65 65 65 65
Productivity 121.30
Index Points
135 135 135 135 135
Part Time Employment 554.70
Thousand
570 534 562 586 561
Labor Force Participation Rate 53.80
percent
56.45 54.39 54.11 56.84 54.5
Living Wage Family 2210.00
RON/Month
2300 2300 2400 2162 2400
Living Wage Individual 1370.00
RON/Month
1298 1293 1298 1303 1309
Wages High Skilled 2760.00
RON/Month
2800 2800 2850 2253 2900
Wages Low Skilled 1350.00
RON/Month
1400 1400 1400 1244 1480
Full Time Employment 7635.10
Thousand
7960 7774 7684 7900 7801
Employment Change 1.90
percent
-0.26 0.01 -0.16 -0.27 -0.18
Employment Rate 63.10
percent
66.01 63.78 63.57 66.47 63.87
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 5.40
percent
4.9 3.8 3.2 3.5 2.5
Consumer Price Index CPI 100.02
Index Points
105 104 104 104 110
Core Consumer Prices 102.24
Index Points
103 105 105 106 118
Core Inflation Rate 2.20
percent
2.55 2.9 3.23 3.56 6.41
Producer Prices 119.13
Index Points
120 122 124 124 131
Producer Prices Change 5.20
percent
4.6 4.7 4.8 4.3 3.6
Inflation Rate Mom 0.02
percent
0.27 0.29 0.28 0.28 0.28
Harmonised Consumer Prices 104.33
Index Points
105 106 107 108 112
Food Inflation 3.93
percent
2.4 2.2 2.5 3.83 2.5
CPI Transportation 100.39
Index Points
105 104 104 104 110
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 2.50
percent
2.5 2.75 2.5 2.5 2.5
Interbank Rate 3.22
percent
3.22 3.47 3.22 3.22 3.22
Money Supply M0 63509.10
RON Million
65558 66958 68337 69696 82259
Money Supply M1 211307.40
RON Million
216373 219631 222440 225095 242767
Money Supply M2 356165.50
RON Million
367255 375037 382689 390287 462666
Money Supply M3 356303.40
RON Million
367418 375219 382883 390497 463134
Foreign Exchange Reserves 35348.80
EUR Million
34971 35088 35115 35117 35117
Banks Balance Sheet 466718.51
RON Million
474464 480025 485360 490486 532224
Lending Rate 3.50
percent
3.5 3.75 3.5 3.5 3.5
Cash Reserve Ratio 8.00
percent
8 8 8 8 8
Central Bank Balance Sheet 185722.64
RON Million
185467 185493 185108 185244 185185
Deposit Interest Rate 1.50
percent
1.5 1.75 1.5 1.5 1.5
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -1270.30
EUR Million
-1030 -1670 -890 -1630 -1400
Exports 5871.70
EUR Million
5720 4710 6220 5490 5380
Imports 7142.00
EUR Million
6750 6380 7110 7120 6780
Current Account -1052.00
EUR Million
-572 -620 -570 -780 -370
Current Account to GDP -3.40
percent
-0.9 -0.9 -0.8 -0.8 -0.6
External Debt 96040.10
EUR Million
96751 97202 97622 98008 100503
Remittances 583.00
EUR Million
668 727 621 797 710
Gold Reserves 103.70
Tonnes
104 104 104 104 104
Terrorism Index 0.00
0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03
Weapons Sales 2.00
USD Million
23.74 13.95 15.05 16.16 20.92
Foreign Direct Investment 206.55
EUR Million
355 346 349 349 349
Crude Oil Production 70.00
BBL/D/1K
69.82 69.81 69.8 69.8 69.8
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 35.00
percent
36.2 36.2 35.4 35.4 35
Government Budget -2.90
percent of GDP
-2 -2 -3.92 -4.18 -1.2
Government Budget Value -14405.30
RON Million
-9865 -11572 -11705 -11034 -11353
Government Spending 1764.90
RON Million
1803 1664 1839 1638 1781
Government Spending to GDP 33.40
percent
33.26 33.04 32.93 32.82 33.75
Government Revenues 50521.50
RON Million
60293 52816 55809 56479 55773
Government Debt 287030.30
RON Million
293074 296626 298095 300983 318265
Fiscal Expenditure 64926.70
RON Million
70158 64531 67514 67513 67127
Military Expenditure 3975.50
USD Million
4058 4493 4533 4572 5426
Asylum Applications 60.00
persons
63.5 65.86 68.39 65.94 66.79
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Industrial Production 3.60
percent
4.2 4 4.5 4.2 2.8
Industrial Production Mom -0.40
percent
0.2 3.6 0.5 1.5 1
Manufacturing Production 3.60
percent
5.1 4.9 5.6 5.2 3.6
Capacity Utilization 75.60
percent
75.23 75.41 75.66 75.58 75.57
Changes in Inventories -18.00
RON Million
1458 1715 1628 1658 1650
Car Registrations 151221.00
154961 159573 155494 154663 155704
Internet Speed 16990.81
KBps
19400 19782 20152 20505 23439
IP Addresses 3664561.00
IP
3990073 4050340 4101472 4152572 4701659
Mining Production -3.50
percent
-2.3 -2.14 -2.08 -2.09 -2.09
Business Confidence 1.00
Index Points
0.95 0.99 1 1 1
Competitiveness Index 4.28
Points
4.29 4.29 4.28 4.27 4.27
Competitiveness Rank 68.00
66 66 68 69 69
Ease Of Doing Business 45.00
37.26 36.89 37.22 37.56 38.04
Electricity Production 4736.00
Gigawatt-hour
5208 5614 5352 5183 5317
Corruption Index 48.00
Points
48 49 49 49 50
Corruption Rank 59.00
57 58 58 58 59
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Retail Sales MoM 2.10
percent
0.47 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.4
Retail Sales YoY 6.60
percent
3.7 3 3.2 2.9 2.9
Consumer Spending 37758.60
RON Million
38967 39810 39344 37949 42604
Consumer Credit 42774.89
RON Million
44287 45302 46158 46872 49884
Gasoline Prices 1.40
USD/Liter
1.33 1.25 1.18 1.12 0.62
Consumer Confidence -26.10
Index Points
-26.31 -26.31 -26.31 -26.31 -26.31
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Construction Output 2.50
percent
0 0.44 0.32 0.31 0.31
Housing Index 116.10
Index Points
118 119 121 122 128
Home Ownership Rate 96.90
percent
96.4 96.47 96.54 96.6 96.67
Building Permits 4435.00
3576 3034 3596 3823 3548
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 16.00
percent
16 16 16 16 16
Personal Income Tax Rate 10.00
percent
10 10 10 10 10
Sales Tax Rate 19.00
percent
19 19 19 19 19
Social Security Rate 37.25
percent
37.25 37.25 37.25 37.25 37.25
Social Security Rate For Companies 2.25
percent
2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25
Social Security Rate For Employees 35.00
percent
16.5 16.5 30.37 35 35
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Temperature 21.61
celsius
18.19 3.93 -0.84 13.84 8.97