Russia - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Russia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Russia economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.85 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.9 percent
Unemployment Rate 4.60 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.4 5.1 percent
Inflation Rate 3.10 3.2 4 4.2 4.5 4.1 percent
Interest Rate 7.50 7.5 7.5 7.5 6.75 5.5 percent
Balance of Trade 13402.00 11100 10200 11000 9000 10900 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 12.60 21.2 21.2 22 22 24 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 66.48
 68.71 69.43 70.17 70.92 73.97
Stock Market 2426.80
points		 2301 2270 2239 2209 2092
Government Bond 10Y 8.69
percent		 8.74 8.81 8.89 8.97 9.29
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.85
percent		 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.9
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.90
percent		 1.5 1.7 1 1.5 2.3
GDP 1577.52
USD Billion		 1650 1650 1750 1750 1820
GDP Constant Prices 21678.60
RUB Billion		 22935 24126 20192 22004 25298
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 3079.10
RUB Billion		 4491 7618 3110 4278 7988
GDP per capita 11441.00
USD		 11700 11700 12100 12100 12500
GDP per capita PPP 24765.95
USD		 24900 24900 25400 25400 25900
Gross National Product 65166840.30
RUB Million		 65655592 66274677 65818509 66144343 69493969
GDP From Agriculture 671.80
RUB Billion		 1553 1004 452 682 1053
GDP From Construction 1119.10
RUB Billion		 1372 1760 720 1136 1846
GDP From Manufacturing 2606.10
RUB Billion		 2690 3020 2211 2645 3167
GDP From Mining 1954.20
RUB Billion		 1816 1929 1897 1984 2023
GDP From Public Administration 1627.10
RUB Billion		 1601 1618 1629 1652 1697
GDP From Transport 1444.10
RUB Billion		 1453 1420 1361 1466 1489
GDP From Utilities 498.40
RUB Billion		 461 649 663 506 681
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.60
percent		 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.4 5.1
Employed Persons 72.70
Million 		72.8 72.5 71.7 72.2 72.7
Unemployed Persons 3.51
Million 		3.8 3.9 3.71 3.69 4.2
Employment Rate 59.90
percent		 60.38 65.9 60.74 60.71 66.2
Labor Force Participation Rate 62.90
percent		 63.14 69.4 63.33 63.33 69.7
Productivity -0.20
percent		 1.2 1.2 0.17 0.19 2
Job Offers 1753086.00
Persons		 1356374 1525690 1451166 1557134 1600369
Wages 41140.00
RUB/Month		 40000 53000 42000 42800 56500
Wages in Manufacturing 39977.00
RUB/Month		 39000 42000 42600 44700 51000
Wage Growth 7.00
percent		 4.2 4.2 8.3 8.33 3.3
Minimum Wages 11163.00
RUB/Month		 11163 11163 12000 12000 12000
Population 146.88
Million		 147 147 147 147 148
Retirement Age Women 55.00
 55 55 55 55 57
Retirement Age Men 60.00
 60 60 60 60 62
Wages Low Skilled 18300.00
RUB/Month		 15200 15200 19500 14539 20000
Wages High Skilled 46100.00
RUB/Month		 42800 42800 46800 39958 47000
Living Wage Family 28300.00
RUB/Month		 29700 29700 31100 28296 31100
Living Wage Individual 20400.00
RUB/Month		 20312 37000 20345 20357 39200
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 3.10
percent		 3.2 4 4.2 4.5 4.1
Inflation Rate Mom 0.00
percent		 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.54 0.6
Consumer Price Index CPI 564.30
Index Points		 564 573 579 588 623
Core Consumer Prices 100.30
Index Points		 100 100 101 100 100
Core Inflation Rate 2.60
percent		 2 2.2 2.4 2.3 3.1
GDP Deflator 114.61
Index Points		 110 112 111 111 125
Producer Prices 685.60
Index Points		 725 718 668 717 768
Producer Prices Change 15.30
percent		 13.2 8.5 6.5 5.1 3.2
Food Inflation 1.90
percent		 2 2.2 2.5 2.6 4.5
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 7.50
percent		 7.5 7.5 7.5 6.75 5.5
Interbank Rate 7.60
percent		 7.6 7.6 7.6 6.85 5.6
Money Supply M0 9053.10
RUB Billion		 8500 8450 8356 9213 8600
Money Supply M1 20669.58
RUB Billion		 19800 19600 20919 21058 21400
Money Supply M2 43910.90
RUB Billion		 43800 44600 46353 47220 49200
Foreign Exchange Reserves 460615.00
USD Million		 470000 475000 480000 485000 510000
Central Bank Balance Sheet 2444.90
RUB Billion		 1973 2130 1882 1881 2040
Loans to Private Sector 25819672.00
RUB Million		 25438307 25776018 25959214 26234164 29421346
Deposit Interest Rate 7.01
percent		 7.01 7.01 7.01 6.26 5.01
Cash Reserve Ratio 7.00
percent		 7 7 7 7 5
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade 13402.00
USD Million		 11100 10200 11000 9000 10900
Exports 34428.00
USD Million		 36200 40100 38400 37900 49800
Imports 21026.00
USD Million		 25100 29900 27400 28900 38900
Current Account 22300.00
USD Million		 45000 15200 19500 4900 12000
Current Account to GDP 2.20
percent		 2.1 2.1 1.9 1.9 2.2
External Debt 485.50
USD Billion		 464 547 450 440 628
Capital Flows 33473.41
USD Million		 6987 12600 12994 12429 14200
Gold Reserves 1909.80
Tonnes		 2010 2030 2045 2060 2150
Crude Oil Production 10569.00
BBL/D/1K		 10575 10600 10577 10577 10800
Terrorism Index 5.33
 5.43 5.43 6.15 6.33 5.43
Weapons Sales 6148.00
USD Million		 6191 7000 5838 5804 8500
Remittances 368.00
USD Million		 350 350 355 378 400
Foreign Direct Investment 4300.00
USD Million		 3250 5600 5691 5247 10000
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 12.60
percent		 21.2 21.2 22 22 24
Government Budget -1.50
percent of GDP		 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 -0.6
Government Budget Value 1962.32
RUB Billion		 768233 -2114093 362375 464586 -1368176
Government Spending 3959.10
RUB Billion		 3972 4042 3999 4009 4239
Government Revenues 20410955.00
RUB Million		 17130265 33562428 15202202 15467754 40241351
Government Debt 11618.80
RUB Billion		 12030 14818 12002 12147 18168
Fiscal Expenditure 17954174.90
RUB Million		 16362032 35676521 14839827 15003168 41609527
Military Expenditure 55327.20
USD Million		 62000 62000 65000 65000 70000
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence -3.00
Index Points		 -2 -2 0 0 6
Manufacturing PMI 48.90
 52.1 52 52.6 53 53.5
Services PMI 53.30
Index Points		 55 54.6 54.7 54.4 54
Industrial Production 2.70
percent		 2.6 3.5 3.2 2.64 5.2
Industrial Production Mom 2.70
percent		 2.2 6.4 0.43 0.45 4.2
Manufacturing Production 2.20
percent		 3.2 3 3.3 3.3 4.8
Capacity Utilization 64.00
percent		 63.78 64 64 64 66
Changes in Inventories 85.90
RUB Billion		 1200 -620 77.65 -947 -520
Total Vehicle Sales 147388.00
 140111 163439 139944 149134 197696
Car Production 138.60
Thousand Units		 135 114 125 130 158
Car Registrations 147388.00
 150297 170000 165000 155000 178000
Leading Economic Index 1.00
percent		 1.5 2 2.2 2.3 2.1
Internet Speed 11846.17
KBps		 11708 11696 11712 11709 11684
IP Addresses 19163474.00
IP		 18616502 19075455 19078991 18678671 18989703
Steel Production 6170.00
Thousand Tonnes		 6135 6310 6143 6142 6300
Mining Production 4.50
percent		 2.34 2.9 2.07 2.01 4.2
Cement Production 5.89
Millions of Tonnes 		5.6 3.4 5 7 3.8
Competitiveness Index 4.64
Points		 4.6 4.6 4.62 4.65 4.78
Competitiveness Rank 38.00
 42 42 38 37 39
Composite Pmi 52.10
 52.54 53 52.95 52.92 54.5
Bankruptcies 3680.00
Companies		 3286 3270 3503 3499 3090
Corporate Profits 6371.70
RUB Billion		 8500 12500 2700 5000 19700
Corruption Index 29.00
Points		 30 30 28 27 28
Corruption Rank 135.00
 138 120 144 145 110
Ease of Doing Business 35.00
 31 38 27 26 33
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence -8.00
Index Points		 -6 -6 -7 -7 -4
Retail Sales MoM 3.60
percent		 0.52 23.7 0.78 0.77 22.8
Retail Sales YoY 2.80
percent		 2.5 2.7 2.46 2.46 5.4
Consumer Spending 11147.00
RUB Billion		 12076 12632 11258 11387 13246
Consumer Credit 13466674.00
RUB Million		 13964578 11400000 15281174 15855978 12000000
Private Sector Credit 39286346.00
RUB Million		 40093574 41242194 42229442 43088954 47440320
Bank Lending Rate 8.88
percent		 8.88 8.88 8.88 8.13 6.88
Disposable Personal Income -0.90
percent		 2.5 2.9 1.5 1.8 4.8
Households Debt To Gdp 16.20
Percent		 16.79 17.02 17.15 17.31 18.31
Gasoline Prices 0.67
USD/Liter		 0.68 0.65 0.61 0.58 0.45
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Housing Index 1.00
percent		 2 2 2.5 2.5 3
Construction Output -0.70
percent		 0.38 5.8 0.28 0.28 6
Housing Starts 5.20
Million Sq Meter		 7.09 17.5 6.39 6.41 20.1
Home Ownership Rate 87.30
percent		 84 84 85 85 85
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00
percent		 20 20 20 20 20
Personal Income Tax Rate 13.00
percent		 13 13 13 13 13
Sales Tax Rate 18.00
percent		 18 20 20 20 20
Social Security Rate 47.50
percent		 47.5 47.5 46.75 48 30
Social Security Rate For Companies 47.50
percent		 30 30 30 30 30
Social Security Rate For Employees 0.00
percent		 0 0 0 0 0
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Precipitation 30.73
mm		 58.25 29.88 18.18 36.98 36.4
Temperature -20.43
celsius		 11.08 -14.87 -21.58 10.49 -5.65