This page has economic forecasts for Russia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Russia economy.


Overview Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.90 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.5 percent
Unemployment Rate 4.50 4.3 4.2 4.4 4.5 5.1 percent
Inflation Rate 3.50 4 4.2 4.5 4.8 4.1 percent
Interest Rate 7.50 7.5 7.5 6.75 6.5 5.5 percent
Balance of Trade 18485.00 15200 11000 9000 9800 10900 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 12.60 21.2 22 22 22 24 percent
MARKETS Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Currency 65.97
 66.06 66.77 67.48 68.2 71.17
Stock Market 2372.67
points		 2440 2407 2374 2342 2217
Government Bond 10Y 8.64
percent		 8.65 8.74 8.82 8.9 9.25
GDP Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.90
percent		 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.5
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.30
percent		 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.2 2
GDP 1577.52
USD Billion		 1650 1750 1750 1750 1820
GDP Constant Prices 21678.60
RUB Billion		 24126 20272 22004 21939 24978
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 4257.20
RUB Billion		 7618 3122 4321 4308 7887
GDP per capita 11441.00
USD		 11700 12100 12100 12100 12500
GDP per capita PPP 24765.95
USD		 24900 25400 25400 25400 25900
GDP From Agriculture 671.80
RUB Billion		 1004 453 682 680 1039
GDP From Construction 1119.10
RUB Billion		 1760 723 1136 1133 1823
GDP From Manufacturing 2606.10
RUB Billion		 3020 2219 2645 2637 3127
GDP From Mining 1954.20
RUB Billion		 1929 1905 1984 1978 1997
GDP From Public Administration 1627.10
RUB Billion		 1618 1635 1652 1647 1675
GDP From Transport 1444.10
RUB Billion		 1420 1366 1466 1461 1470
GDP From Utilities 498.40
RUB Billion		 649 666 506 504 672
LABOUR Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.50
percent		 4.3 4.2 4.4 4.5 5.1
Employed Persons 73.20
Million 		72.5 71.7 72.2 72.4 72.7
Unemployed Persons 3.43
Million 		3.9 3.47 3.48 3.46 4.2
Employment Rate 60.30
percent		 61 61 61 62 62
Labor Force Participation Rate 63.20
percent		 64 64 64 65 65
Productivity 1.50
percent		 1.2 1.01 0.81 0.6 2
Job Offers 1738477.00
Persons		 1525690 1451166 1557134 1601119 1600369
Wages 42200.00
RUB/Month		 53000 42000 42800 42500 56500
Wage Growth 7.20
percent		 4.2 2.9 2.5 2.2 2.2
Wages in Manufacturing 40226.00
RUB/Month		 42000 42600 44700 40200 51000
Minimum Wages 11163.00
RUB/Month		 11163 12000 12000 12000 12000
Population 146.90
Million		 147 147 147 147 148
Retirement Age Women 55.00
 55 55 55 55 57
Retirement Age Men 60.00
 60 60 60 60 62
Wages High Skilled 48300.00
RUB/Month		 46800 47800 47800 47800 49000
Wages Low Skilled 19900.00
RUB/Month		 19200 20500 20500 20500 21000
Living Wage Family 23700.00
RUB/Month		 29700 31100 31100 31100 32200
Living Wage Individual 14500.00
RUB/Month		 21000 22300 22300 22300 24500
PRICES Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Inflation Rate 3.50
percent		 4 4.2 4.5 4.8 4.1
Inflation Rate Mom 0.40
percent		 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.6
Consumer Price Index CPI 567.50
Index Points		 573 579 588 593 627
Core Consumer Prices 100.40
Index Points		 100 101 100 100 100
Core Inflation Rate 3.10
percent		 2.8 3 3.6 3.2 2.9
GDP Deflator 114.61
Index Points		 116 118 119 120 125
Producer Prices 694.50
Index Points		 718 668 717 726 768
Producer Prices Change 14.40
percent		 8.5 6.5 5.1 4.5 3.2
Food Inflation 2.80
percent		 2.2 2.5 2.6 2.3 2.5
MONEY Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Interest Rate 7.50
percent		 7.5 7.5 6.75 6.5 5.5
Interbank Rate 8.20
percent		 8.2 8.2 7.45 7.2 6.2
Money Supply M0 9138.70
RUB Billion		 8450 8356 9267 9199 8600
Money Supply M1 20575.52
RUB Billion		 19600 20608 20739 20612 21400
Money Supply M2 44253.40
RUB Billion		 44600 46070 46906 47737 49200
Foreign Exchange Reserves 459563.00
USD Million		 475000 480000 485000 494000 510000
Central Bank Balance Sheet 2534.10
RUB Billion		 2130 1882 1881 1870 2040
Loans to Private Sector 26184172.00
RUB Million		 25776018 25959214 26234164 28961386 29421346
Deposit Interest Rate 5.21
percent		 5.04 5.04 4.29 4.04 3.04
Cash Reserve Ratio 8.00
percent		 8 8 8 8 7
TRADE Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Balance of Trade 18485.00
USD Million		 15200 11000 9000 9800 10900
Exports 38439.00
USD Million		 45100 38400 37900 36200 49800
Imports 19954.00
USD Million		 29900 27400 28900 26400 38900
Current Account 26400.00
USD Million		 15200 32500 25100 11700 16000
Current Account to GDP 2.20
percent		 5.5 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.2
External Debt 467.10
USD Billion		 547 457 447 444 628
Capital Flows 20971.51
USD Million		 12600 12617 12991 11587 14200
Gold Reserves 1998.50
Tonnes		 2030 2045 2060 2060 2150
Crude Oil Production 10814.00
BBL/D/1K		 10800 10900 11000 10500 10800
Terrorism Index 5.33
 5.33 5.33 5.33 5.33 5.33
Weapons Sales 6148.00
USD Million		 7000 5838 5804 5770 8500
Remittances 408.00
USD Million		 350 387 408 387 400
Foreign Direct Investment 2583.00
USD Million		 5600 6732 5247 5965 10000
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 12.60
percent		 21.2 22 22 22 24
Government Budget -1.50
percent of GDP		 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.6
Government Budget Value 3022.14
RUB Billion		 -1000 900 1600 700 -800
Government Spending 3972.90
RUB Billion		 4042 4015 4032 4021 4185
Government Revenues 2636790569.10
RUB Million		 32200000 8400000 18100000 24300000 34600000
Government Debt 12096.70
RUB Billion		 14818 12217 12456 12547 18168
Fiscal Expenditure 22933810.00
RUB Million		 33200000 7500000 16500000 23600000 35400000
Military Expenditure 55327.20
USD Million		 62000 65000 65000 54124 70000
BUSINESS Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Business Confidence -5.00
Index Points		 -2 0 0 1 6
Manufacturing PMI 51.30
 52 52.6 53 52.5 53.5
Services PMI 56.90
Index Points		 54.6 54.7 54.4 53.6 54
Industrial Production 3.70
percent		 3.5 3.2 3.6 3.2 3.2
Industrial Production Mom 5.80
percent		 6.4 12.5 -0.4 2.5 4.2
Manufacturing Production 2.70
percent		 3 1.72 2.9 2.5 2.9
Capacity Utilization 64.00
percent		 64 64 64 64.49 66
Changes in Inventories 935.10
RUB Billion		 -620 250 985 1550 -520
Total Vehicle Sales 160425.00
 163439 150467 159350 150415 197696
Car Production 121.60
Thousand Units		 114 125 130 123 158
Car Registrations 160425.00
 170000 165000 155000 150385 178000
Leading Economic Index 1.10
percent		 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.6
Internet Speed 11846.17
KBps		 11696 11712 11709 11695 11684
IP Addresses 19163474.00
IP		 19075455 19078991 18678671 18669577 18989703
Mining Production 7.40
percent		 2.9 5.72 5.01 4.5 4.2
Steel Production 5910.00
Thousand Tonnes		 6310 6014 6003 6004 6300
Cement Production 6.38
Millions of Tonnes 		3.4 5 7 5.45 3.8
Competitiveness Index 65.62
Points		 66.12 66.12 66.12 66.12 68.62
Competitiveness Rank 43.00
 43 43 43 43 43
Composite Pmi 55.80
 53 53.6 54 53.8 54.5
Bankruptcies 3431.00
Companies		 3270 3420 3250 3160 3090
Corporate Profits 8572.00
RUB Billion		 12500 2700 5000 9500 19700
Corruption Index 29.00
Points		 29 29 29 29 29
Corruption Rank 135.00
 135 135 135 135 135
Ease of Doing Business 31.00
 34 33 33 33 32
CONSUMER Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Consumer Confidence -14.00
Index Points		 -6 -7 -7 -6 -4
Retail Sales MoM -1.10
percent		 23.7 7.5 2 -1.6 22.8
Retail Sales YoY 2.30
percent		 2.7 2.5 2.2 1.5 1.9
Consumer Spending 11505.40
RUB Billion		 12632 11303 11678 11643 13078
Consumer Credit 13791355.00
RUB Million		 11400000 15745016 16481697 17164920 12000000
Private Sector Credit 39975527.00
RUB Million		 42006192 43339900 44523270 45568110 50878116
Bank Lending Rate 9.09
percent		 8.8 8.8 8.05 7.8 6.8
Disposable Personal Income -1.50
percent		 -1 -1.2 -0.6 -0.4 1
Households Debt To GDP 16.50
percent of GDP		 17.27 17.48 17.67 17.85 18.91
Gasoline Prices 0.69
USD/Liter		 0.68 0.67 0.65 0.64 0.59
HOUSING Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Housing Index 1.00
percent		 2 2.5 2.5 2.5 3
Construction Output -0.80
percent		 0.5 0.9 1.5 1.1 1.7
Home Ownership Rate 87.30
percent		 84 85 85 85 85
Housing Starts 6.30
Million Sq Meter		 17.5 5.5 5.7 5.6 20.1
TAXES Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00
percent		 20 20 20 20 20
Personal Income Tax Rate 13.00
percent		 13 13 13 13 13
Sales Tax Rate 18.00
percent		 18 20 20 20 20
Social Security Rate 30.00
percent		 30 30 30 30 30
Social Security Rate For Companies 30.00
percent		 30 30 30 30 30
Social Security Rate For Employees 0.00
percent		 0 0 0 0 0
CLIMATE Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Precipitation 30.73
mm		 29.88 18.18 36.98 36.45 36.4
Temperature -20.43
celsius		 -14.87 -21.58 10.49 2.3 -5.65



Russia - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook