The Bank of Russia held its benchmark one-week repo rate at 7.75 percent during its April meeting, as widely expected, saying inflation started to slow after hitting a two-year high in March. Policymakers also said that the decision to hike rates in September and December were sufficient to curb the effects of one-off pro-inflationary factors and that there is a possibility of turning to cutting the key rate in Q2-Q3 2019. The bank expects annual inflation to return to 4 percent in the first half of 2020. Interest Rate in Russia averaged 7.32 percent from 2003 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 17 percent in December of 2014 and a record low of 5 percent in June of 2010.

Interest Rate in Russia is expected to be 7.75 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Interest Rate in Russia to stand at 6.75 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Russia Interest Rate is projected to trend around 6.50 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.

Russia Interest Rate
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Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2018-12-14 10:30 AM Interest Rate Decision 7.75% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5%
2019-02-08 10:30 AM Interest Rate Decision 7.75% 7.75% 7.75% 7.75%
2019-03-22 10:30 AM Interest Rate Decision 7.75% 7.75% 7.75% 7.75%
2019-04-26 10:30 AM Interest Rate Decision 7.75% 7.75% 7.75% 7.75%
2019-06-14 10:30 AM Interest Rate Decision 7.75% 7.75%
2019-06-14 12:00 PM Monetary Policy Report
2019-07-26 10:30 AM Interest Rate Decision 7.75%



Russia Holds Rates, Signals Future Cuts

The Bank of Russia held its benchmark one-week repo rate at 7.75 percent during its April meeting, as widely expected, saying inflation started to slow after hitting a two-year high in March. Policymakers also said that the decision to hike rates in September and December were sufficient to curb the effects of one-off pro-inflationary factors and that there is a possibility of turning to cutting the key rate in Q2-Q3 2019. The bank expects annual inflation to return to 4 percent in the first half of 2020.

Excerpts from the Information Notice of Bank of Russia:

Inflation dynamics. In March, annual inflation passed the local peak. The annual consumer price growth rate increased to 5.3% in March (from 5.2% in February 2019). In April, annual inflation started to slow down and declined to 5.1%, according to the estimate as of 22 April. Consumer prices current growth rates tend to be somewhat below the Bank of Russia’s forecast. The VAT increase pass-through to prices has largely materialised.

The Bank of Russia’s pre-emptive key rate hikes in September and December 2018 helped return annualised monthly consumer price growth rates to levels close to 4%. Consumer demand trends constrain inflation. Also, temporary disinflationary factors contributed to slowing consumer price growth, among those ruble appreciation since the beginning of the year, and declining prices for principal types of motor fuel and certain food products in March-April compared to February readings.

In April, inflation expectations of households rose slightly after a tangible drop in March. Business price expectations continued to decline but remain at an elevated level.

According to the Bank of Russia’s forecast, annual inflation will return to 4% in the first half of 2020.

Economic activity. Rosstat’s revision of 2014-2018 GDP data has not changed the Bank of Russia’s view of the current state of the economy — it is close to the potential. Current consumer demand trends and labour market conditions create no excessive inflationary pressure. In the first quarter, industrial production grew moderately year on year and somewhat below the reading of 2018 Q4. Investment activity remains muted. Annual retail sales growth declined in the first quarter as a result of the VAT increase and the slowdown in wage growth.

The Bank of Russia expects GDP to grow by 1.2-1.7% in 2019. The VAT hike slightly constrained business activity. The incremental budget revenues will be used to raise government spending, including investment, as early as 2019. Subsequent years might see higher economic growth rates as national projects are implemented.

Inflation risks. Short-term proinflationary risks have abated. With respect to internal conditions, the secondary effects of the VAT increase are seen as immaterial and accelerated price growth in certain food products became less of a risk.

That said, significant risks are posed by elevated and unanchored inflation expectations, as well as by external factors. In particular, the risk of a slowdown in global economic growth still looms. Geopolitical factors might lead to strengthened volatility in global commodity and financial markets, affecting exchange rate and inflation expectations. Supply-side factors in the oil market may amplify the volatility of global oil prices. At the same time, the revision of the interest rate paths by the US Fed and other central banks in advanced economies in the first quarter constrains the risks of persistent capital outflows from emerging markets.

The Bank of Russia leaves mostly unchanged its assessment of risks associated with wage movements, possible changes in consumer behaviour and budget expenditures. These risks remain moderate.


Central Bank of the Russian Federation | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com
4/26/2019 10:57:58 AM



Russia Money Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Interest Rate 7.75 7.75 17.00 5.00 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 8.39 8.49 45.30 4.20 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 8980.60 9029.70 9339.00 0.10 RUB Billion [+]
Money Supply M1 20810.64 20944.10 21624.13 106.31 RUB Billion [+]
Money Supply M2 46140.00 46213.20 47108.10 1090.10 RUB Billion [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 491088.00 487803.00 596566.00 4532.00 USD Million [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 2916.90 2694.10 3300.70 8.90 RUB Billion [+]
Loans to Private Sector 27906250.00 27847666.00 27906250.00 4601204.00 RUB Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 6.12 6.24 101.96 5.00 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 8.00 8.00 10.00 0.50 percent [+]


Russia Interest Rate

In Russia, interest rate decisions are taken by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. From September 16th of 2013, the official interest rate is the one-week auction repo rate. Until September 15th of 2013, the official interest rate was the refinancing rate, which was seen as a ceiling for borrowing money and a benchmark for calculating tax payments. This page provides the latest reported value for - Russia Interest Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. Russia Interest Rate - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on May of 2019.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
7.75 7.75 17.00 5.00 2003 - 2019 percent Daily




Country Last Previous
Argentina 71.22 May/19
Turkey 24.00 Apr/19
Mexico 8.25 May/19
Russia 7.75 Apr/19
South Africa 6.75 May/19
Brazil 6.50 May/19
India 6.00 Apr/19
Indonesia 6.00 May/19
China 4.35 Apr/19
Saudi Arabia 3.00 Apr/19
United States 2.50 May/19
Singapore 2.24 Mar/19
Canada 1.75 Apr/19
South Korea 1.75 Apr/19
Australia 1.50 May/19
United Kingdom 0.75 May/19
Euro Area 0.00 Apr/19
France 0.00 Apr/19
Germany 0.00 Apr/19
Italy 0.00 Apr/19
Netherlands 0.00 Apr/19
Spain 0.00 Apr/19
Japan -0.10 Apr/19
Switzerland -0.75 Apr/19


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