Russia's gross domestic product growth eased to 0.2 percent year-on-year in May 2019 from an upwardly revised 1.7 percent in the previous month. A slowdown was seen in industrial output (0.9 percent from 4.6 percent in April); transport (1.1 percent from 2.5 percent); retail trade (1.4 percent from 1.6 percent) and mining (2.8 percent from 4.2 percent) amid a downward trend in the oil industry mainly due to Russia's fulfilment of its obligations under the OPEC agreement. Leading Economic Index in Russia averaged 1.92 percent from 2005 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 9.90 percent in February of 2008 and a record low of -11.80 percent in May of 2009.
Leading Economic Index in Russia is expected to be 1.50 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Leading Economic Index in Russia to stand at 1.60 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Russia GDP YoY is projected to trend around 2.30 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.