Russia's gross domestic product growth slowed to 0.7 percent year-on-year in January 2019, the weakest since a contraction seen in November 2017, from an upwardly revised 2.3 percent in the previous month. Output rose at a softer pace for construction (0.1 percent vs 2.6 percent in December), retail trade (1.6 percent vs 2.3 percent), freight turnover (2.4 percent vs 3.2 percent) and industrial production (1.1 percent vs 2 percent). On the other hand, agriculture activity expanded at a faster 0.7 percent, compared to a 0.1 percent decline in December. Leading Economic Index in Russia averaged 1.96 percent from 2005 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 9.90 percent in February of 2008 and a record low of -11.80 percent in May of 2009.
Leading Economic Index in Russia is expected to be 1.40 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Leading Economic Index in Russia to stand at 1.10 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Russia GDP YoY is projected to trend around 1.60 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.