Retail Sales in Russia increased 3 percent in November of 2018, after an upwardly revised 2.0 percent rise in the previous month and beating market expectations of a 2.1 percent gain. It is the largest increase in retail trade since June, as sales grew faster for both food, beverage and tobacco (1.6 percent vs 0.4 percent in October) and non-food products (4.3 percent vs 3.4 percent). Considering the first eleven months of the year, retail trade advanced 2.6 percent over a year ago. On a monthly basis, retail sales went down 0.2 percent, following an upwardly revised 0.4 percent rise in the previous month. Retail Sales YoY in Russia averaged 4.40 percent from 1994 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 18.80 percent in February of 2008 and a record low of -16 percent in January of 1999.
Retail Sales YoY in Russia is expected to be 2.70 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in Russia to stand at 1.50 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Russia Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 1.90 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.