Russia's retail trade increased 1.4 percent year-on-year in May 2019, easing from an upwardly revised 1.6 percent rise in the prior month but above market expectations of a 1.2 percent gain. It is the weakest increase in retail sales since July 2017, as sales went up at a softer pace for non-food products (1 percent vs 1.7 percent in April) while they rose faster for food products (1.7 percent vs 1.5 percent). On a monthly basis, retail sales grew 1.3 percent, after a downwardly revised 1.2 percent fall in the prior month. Considering the January to May period of 2019, retail trade advanced 1.7 percent over a year ago. Retail Sales YoY in Russia averaged 4.36 percent from 1994 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 18.80 percent in February of 2008 and a record low of -16 percent in January of 1999.
Retail Sales YoY in Russia is expected to be 2.20 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in Russia to stand at 1.70 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Russia Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 2.40 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.