Retail sales in Russian increased 1.6 percent year-on-year in March 2019, slowing from a 2 percent rise in the previous month and matching market expectations. It is the smallest gain in retail sales since July 2017, as sales grew less for both food (1.2 percent vs 1.4 percent in February) and non-food products (1.9 percent vs 2.6 percent). On a monthly basis, retail trade jumped 8.7 percent, recovering sharply from an upwardly revised 2.6 percent fall in the previous month. Considering the first quarter of 2019, retail sales rose 1.8 percent. Retail Sales YoY in Russia averaged 4.38 percent from 1994 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 18.80 percent in February of 2008 and a record low of -16 percent in January of 1999.
Retail Sales YoY in Russia is expected to be 2.20 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in Russia to stand at 1.70 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Russia Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 2.40 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.