Serbia - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Serbia including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Serbia economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.80 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.7 percent
Unemployment Rate 11.90 12.5 12.5 13.9 12 10 percent
Inflation Rate 2.60 2.4 2.3 2.7 2.9 2.9 percent
Interest Rate 3.00 3 3 2.75 2.75 2.75 percent
Balance of Trade -522.60 -340 -680 -360 -610 -390 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 61.50 71.6 71.6 71.2 71.2 70.6 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Stock Market 729.56
points
730 726 721 717 700
Currency 100.70
102 102 103 104 106
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.80
percent
0.5 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.7
GDP Annual Growth Rate 4.80
percent
3.6 3.5 3.3 3.3 3.3
GDP 41.43
USD Billion
43 43 45 45 46
GDP Constant Prices 840678.90
RSD Million
857933 899306 820623 868421 960568
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 225469.10
RSD Million
225494 239886 207302 232910 256227
GDP per capita 5992.28
USD
6000 6000 6200 6200 6350
GDP per capita PPP 14048.88
USD
14162 14162 14253 14253 14341
GDP From Agriculture 61296.50
RSD Million
73614 70117 56778 63319 74893
GDP From Construction 43006.90
RSD Million
41759 47804 33030 44426 51061
GDP From Manufacturing 173874.50
RSD Million
176797 182337 174348 179612 194758
GDP From Public Administration 106393.80
RSD Million
105834 115486 102917 109905 123353
GDP From Services 132383.80
RSD Million
141003 147441 123961 136752 157485
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 11.90
percent
12.5 12.5 13.9 12 10
Employed Persons 2896800.00
2967716 2954877 2957202 2956781 2956845
Unemployed Persons 579.07
Thousand
573 579 580 579 579
Wages 49226.00
RSD/Month
50200 56000 50000 49543 60000
Minimum Wages 282.51
EUR/Month
285 285 340 299 380
Population 7.00
Million
7 7 6.94 6.94 6.89
Retirement Age Women 62.00
62 62 62.5 62 63
Retirement Age Men 65.00
65 65 65 65 65
Youth Unemployment Rate 27.50
percent
28.49 29.82 28.08 26.65 24.46
Labor Force Participation Rate 55.20
percent
56.89 56.23 54.58 55.65 57.68
Labour Costs 109.69
Index Points
105 106 105 105 105
Employment Rate 48.60
percent
49.77 49.57 49.6 49.6 49.6
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 2.60
percent
2.4 2.3 2.7 2.9 2.9
Consumer Price Index CPI 195.40
Index Points
195 196 198 201 207
Inflation Rate Mom 0.30
percent
0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4
Food Inflation 2.60
percent
4.3 4 3.8 2.69 4
Cpi Housing Utilities 210.50
Index Points
210 211 213 214 225
CPI Transportation 178.00
Index Points
173 174 176 182 184
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 3.00
percent
3 3 2.75 2.75 2.75
Money Supply M0 159741.00
RSD Million
158124 160169 158257 160196 160193
Foreign Exchange Reserves 11325.70
EUR Million
11524 11518 11493 11489 11490
Deposit Interest Rate 1.75
percent
1.75 1.75 1.5 1.5 1.5
Lending Rate 4.25
percent
4.25 4.25 4 4 4
Loans To Private Sector 1020476.00
SRB Million
1025328 1028086 1031163 1034107 1055983
Interbank Rate 2.91
percent
2.91 2.91 2.66 2.66 2.66
Money Supply M1 674808.00
RSD Million
685548 701229 716907 732471 882422
Money Supply M2 896657.00
RSD Million
908750 925380 942032 958632 1121498
Money Supply M3 2355254.00
RSD Million
2381801 2414816 2447836 2480888 2811473
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -522.60
USD Million
-340 -680 -360 -610 -390
Exports 1633.10
USD Million
1910 1640 2150 1990 2410
Imports 2155.70
USD Million
2250 2320 2510 2600 2800
Current Account -176.90
USD Million
-90 -200 -300 -150 -280
Current Account to GDP -5.70
percent
-3.8 -3.8 -3.4 -3.4 -3.2
External Debt 25445.10
EUR Million
25394 25339 25287 25241 24921
Capital Flows -74.00
USD Million
-129 -221 -120 -174 -154
Gold Reserves 19.50
Tonnes
19.3 19.15 19.3 19.47 19.24
Terrorism Index 0.04
0.22 0.22 0.26 0.31 0.88
Tourist Arrivals 205112.00
136100 108600 106400 123900 117000
Weapons Sales 2.00
USD Million
15.8 15.22 12.75 10.28 18.71
Foreign Direct Investment 111.20
EUR Million
258 260 260 260 260
Crude Oil Production 17.00
BBL/D/1K
17.19 17.18 17.18 17.18 17.18
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 61.50
percent
71.6 71.6 71.2 71.2 70.6
Government Budget 0.80
percent of GDP
0.8 0.8 1.6 1.45 1.1
Government Debt 2834530.23
RSD Million
2826300 2819723 2814189 2808971 2769328
Government Spending 195781.80
RSD Million
178033 209478 177560 202243 223748
Military Expenditure 693.80
USD Million
711 706 707 708 718
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Industrial Production 1.70
percent
1.87 2.14 2.32 2.38 2.38
Manufacturing Production 1.70
percent
1.87 1.87 1.87 1.87 1.87
Internet Speed 11086.42
KBps
12039 12305 12614 12795 13749
IP Addresses 1302521.00
IP
1284589 1285048 1281759 1280243 1271781
Steel Production 178.60
Thousand Tonnes
167 160 158 157 156
Ease of Doing Business 43.00
52 56 56 55 62
Corruption Index 41.00
Points
40 39 39 39 36
Corruption Rank 77.00
72 68 69 70 67
Competitiveness Index 4.14
Points
3.94 3.94 4.05 4.08 4.09
Competitiveness Rank 78.00
90 90 82 79 79
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Retail Sales YoY 3.20
percent
2.84 2.78 2.76 2.76 2.76
Consumer Credit 975803.00
SRB Million
995539 1017912 1033522 1044440 1069213
Gasoline Prices 1.49
USD/Liter
1.52 1.43 1.35 1.28 1.01
Retail Sales Mom 4.30
percent
-0.49 0.5 0.45 0.38 0.4
Consumer Spending 804683.10
RSD Million
813455 855112 826000 831238 913364
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Home Ownership Rate 82.40
percent
81.12 80.82 81.19 81.55 81.01
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 15.00
percent
15 15 15 15 15
Personal Income Tax Rate 15.00
percent
15 15 15 15 15
Sales Tax Rate 20.00
percent
20 20 20 20 20
Social Security Rate 37.80
percent
37.8 37.8 37 37 37
Social Security Rate For Companies 17.90
percent
18.03 18.03 18.07 18.08 18.13
Social Security Rate For Employees 19.90
percent
19.85 19.85 19.22 19.01 19.14
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Temperature 23.08
celsius
19.1 5.18 1.07 14.95 10.23