The central bank of Serbia left its key policy rate steady at 2.25 percent on January 9th 2020, mentioning subdued inflationary pressures, favourable domestic outlook and influences from global markets. The decision came in line with market expectations. Policymakers see the inflation moving around the lower bound of the target range of 1.5%-4.5% until mid-2020 and to gradually approach the target midpoint thereafter, due to rising aggregate demand. In November of 2019, the inflation increased to 1.5 percent from 1 percent. However, the central bank also noticed that caution in monetary policy conduct is still needed, mainly due to developments in the international financial and commodity markets.

Interest Rate in Serbia averaged 8.56 percent from 2006 until 2020, reaching an all time high of 18 percent in October of 2006 and a record low of 2.25 percent in November of 2019. This page provides - Serbia Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news. source: National Bank of Serbia

Interest Rate in Serbia is expected to be 2.25 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Interest Rate in Serbia to stand at 2.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Serbia Interest Rate is projected to trend around 3.00 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.


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Serbia Interest Rate

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
2.25 2.25 18.00 2.25 2006 - 2020 percent Daily

Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2019-10-10 10:00 AM 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%
2019-11-07 11:00 AM 2.25% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%
2019-12-12 11:00 AM 2.25% 2.25% 2.25% 2.25%
2020-01-09 11:00 AM 2.25% 2.25% 2.25% 2.25%
2020-02-13 11:00 AM 2.25% 2.25%


News Stream
2019-11-07
Serbia Unexpectedly Cuts Interest Rate to 2.25%
The National Bank of Serbia lowered its key policy rate by 25bps to a record-low of 2.25 percent at its November 7th 2019 meeting, surprising markets who expected no changes. Policymakers said inflationary pressures weakened and added that the decision was also influenced by developments in the international environment, namely the slowdown in global trade and economic growth and Federal Reserve and European Central Bank policies. Still, the central bank noted that resilience to possible negative impacts from the international environment strengthened. In September, annual inflation rate fell to 1.1 percent, its lowest since April 2018 and below the central bank's target of 3±1.5 percent. Policymakers expect inflation by the end of 2019 and in the first half of 2020 to be around the lower limit of the tolerance band.

2019-10-10
Serbia Holds Key Interest Rate at Record Low of 2.5%
The National Bank of Serbia left its key policy rate steady at a record low of 2.5 percent at its October 10th 2019 meeting, as widely expected. Policymakers said that monetary policy prudence is still needed, mostly due to developments in the international environment. The Committee added that the resilience of the domestic economy to possible negative impacts from the international environment increased due to the reduced internal and external imbalances, favorable macroeconomic outlook, and foreign exchange reserves. Policymakers noted that the annual inflation fell to 1.3 percent in August from 1.6 percent in July, due to a further decline of fruit and vegetable prices due to the new agricultural season. The Committee said that the inflation rate will be under control in the future, as in previous years, and added that the economy is expected to grow 3.5 percent this year, driven by domestic demand.

2019-09-12
Serbia Leaves Monetary Policy Unchanged
The National Bank of Serbia left its key policy rate unchanged at a record-low of 2.5 percent at its September 12th 2019 meeting, as widely expected. Policymakers said that prudence in monetary policy is still needed mainly due to international environment developments, namely uncertainty in financial and commodity markets, global trade tensions and the effects of the world's leading economies policies. The Committee noted that the annual inflation rate slowed to 1.6% in July from 2.2% in May, driven by a decline in the contribution of fruit and vegetable prices to inflation as the new agricultural season arrives and it is expected to be in the lower half of the target range both for the year and two years in advance. Policymakers added that the economy is projected to grow 3.5% in 2019 boosted by domestic demand and foreign direct investment.

2019-08-08
Serbia Unexpectedly Cuts Interest Rate to 2.5%
The National Bank of Serbia lowered its key policy rate by 25bps to a record-low of 2.5 percent at its August 8th 2019 meeting, surprising markets who expected no changes. The move follows an unexpected 25bps cut in the previous meeting. In July, annual inflation rate fell to a fourteen-month low of 1.5 percent from 2.2. percent in June, the lower end of the central bank’s 1.5% to 4.5% target range. Over the next two years, policymakers expect inflation to continue to move within the target, most likely at the lower end.

2019-07-11
Serbia Cuts Key Interest Rate to Fresh Record Low
The National Bank of Serbia lowered its key policy rate by 25 bps to 2.75 percent at its July 11th 2019 meeting, surprising markets who expected no changes. It is the first rate cut so far this year, bringing borrowing cost to its lowest on record. Policymakers said that inflation is expected to move to the lower bound of the target range (3.0±1.5%) by the end of this year and next year. The Committee projects that the economic growth will be driven by domestic demand, such as investment and consumption, and foreign direct investments, which will contribute to output growth and export capacities.

2019-06-06
Serbia Holds Key Interest Rate at 3% as Expected
The National Bank of Serbia left its key policy rate unchanged at 3 percent during its June meeting, saying inflation is expected to move to the lower bound of the target band (3.0±1.5%) in the first half of 2020 and head steadily back towards the target midpoint in the period thereafter. Also, policymakers voiced concerns about persistent uncertainty in the international environment, amid new protectionist measures and trade tensions; while expect that economic growth this year will be led by domestic demand, i.e. investment and consumption.


Serbia Interest Rate
In Serbia, interest rate decisions are taken by the Executive Board of the National Bank of Serbia. The official interest rate is the key policy rate.

Serbia Money Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Interest Rate 2.25 2.25 18.00 2.25 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 1.63 1.63 19.18 1.63 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 209568.00 197423.00 209568.00 16056.00 RSD Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 13378.50 13464.70 13498.90 2682.00 EUR Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 1.00 1.00 15.25 1.00 percent [+]
Lending Rate 3.50 3.50 25.26 3.50 percent [+]
Loans To Private Sector 1162815.00 1144627.00 1162815.00 187458.00 SRB Million [+]
Money Supply M1 903689.00 841576.00 903689.00 43647.00 RSD Million [+]
Money Supply M2 1186682.00 1106288.00 1186682.00 52024.00 RSD Million [+]
Money Supply M3 2823643.00 2734113.00 2823643.00 86158.00 RSD Million [+]